December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[Poimen]

Last one for the night, the GGEM. Just about every model has between 10-14" in the northern Triad. 

[Jet Stream Rider]

You can see the low pressure forming in the western gulf current analysis; Surface frontogensis. Models show a slp in that area by 10z-12z.

[NCSNOW]

3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Last one for the night, the GGEM. Just about every model has between 10-14" in the northern Triad. 

That Can is a horror show for me burns and packfan. Literally and inch in the front yard and 6+ in the back lol

[jburns]

Just now, NCSNOW said:

That Can is a horror show for me burns and packfan. Literally and inch in the front bnb yard and 6+ in the back lol

Won't bother me. I'm more excited about getting a decent snow in broad daylight for a change. 

[NCSNOW]

2 minutes ago, jburns said:

Won't bother me. I'm more excited about getting a decent snow in broad daylight for a change. 

Im with you. Watching it fall is the best part, then tracking. Web cams in Blowing rock Boone, slopes out to be a hoot this weekend.

[DopplerWx]

Brad Panovich‏Verified account @wxbrad 4m4 minutes ago

More

I shifted the snow a tad further south due to colder air & a longer duration of snow & sleet, but it still changes to ice Sunday pm. The ice threat keeps going up. #snOMG #cltwx #ncwx #scwx

[jburns]

2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Im with you. Watching it fall is the best part, then tracking. Web cams in Blowing rock Boone, slopes out to be a hoot this weekend.

I'll be outside for a good part of the day. 

[RTPGiants]

WRAL is basically Cold Rain and wildremann wrapped into one. Not buying any guidance.

[rduwx]

3 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

WRAL is basically Cold Rain and wildremann wrapped into one. Not buying any guidance.

Throw rduwx in there with Cold Rain and Wildremann...LOL!

[PackGrad05]

Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map.  I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.  
 

[RTPGiants]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts whether than committing to a specific amount on a map.  I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.  
 

Basically rain tomorrow afternoon through the night. A small pocket of snow from 2 AM until maybe noon, then back to rain. And that's that. Said temps to the north are too warm to worry him.

[thekidcurtis]

Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map.  I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.  
 

Just like a model, you can’t discredit 39 years of knowledge as much as people want to. His conservative approach often wins out.


.

[Regan]

5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map.  I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.  
 

Still saying 1-3. Even with NWS saying 4-6. 

[SENC]

KILM Local AFD finally updated after 3 Days of nothing..

 

Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/...
as of 300 PM Friday...wet weather expected through this period
as storm system tracks up and off the southeast coast. While
the NAM was the cooler of the models, still holding to an all
rain event for our local forecast area with wintry mix remaining
just west and north of US through this period.

The column will basically remain saturated through this period
with a significant amount of rainfall expected. The track of the
sfc low will remain off shore as it parallels the Carolina
coast through Sunday reaching offshore of the Cape Fear coast
sun evening. This will maintain stiff cool north-NE winds at the sfc
while a moist onshore flow increases above the sfc, with a more
SW flow in the mid to upper levels as shortwave digs down into
the southern states. Overall expect increasing isentropic lift
to drive widespread rain across the area. The best dynamic
cooling will come Sun morning as low tracks across northern FL,
but still looks like local area will remain in all rain. The
overall thermal profile points to all rain throughout our local
forecast area at this time, but the coolest NAM forecast points
to possibility of some mixed pcp Sun morning. The NAM sounding
for lbt Sun morning shows a decent shallow cool layer below 2k
ft and warm nose drops toward 0c for a few hours, but the
grounds will be wet and warmer and do not expect any impacts at
this time. The best chc of seeing any mixed pcp will be in the
far western reaches of Marlboro and Robeson counties.

Expect periods of moderate to heavy rain at times with rainfall
total 2 to 3 inches with possibly greater amounts, especially
along the coast. The main impacts of this storm will be
widespread rainfall, coastal flooding, river levels rising, and
marine hazards. The coastal flooding should occur during Sunday
morning's high tide, with potential for minor to moderate tide
levels. Rivers will rise during this period, with potential for
minor river flooding into early next week. Not expecting any
flash flood problems at this time as rainfall should be steady
and ground is not saturated from any previous rainfall.

Although we are not expecting any wintry mix impacts in our
local area, the temps will be running between 35 and 45 for much
of our area through this period, producing a cold rain. The
brisk northerly winds will make it feel even cooler.

&&

Long term /Monday through Friday/...
as of 300 PM Friday...as low pressure lifts off to the
northeast Monday, shortwave energy will dig down around the base
of mid to upper level trough over the southeast. The models are
hinting at low pressure developing off the southeast coast Mon
night which should hold onto clouds and pcp a bit longer, as it
wraps around the back end of the low. This will coincide with
decent cold air advection. Therefore some flurries or snow showers are not out
of the question Mon. Temps will not rise past the 40s most
places on Mon in cold air advection with temps remaining cool through mid week
as high pressure builds in on the back end of the low. …..

Post a lot of Pictures Our upstate Folks! My Step=Daughter is in Pinelevel (just southEast of Raleigh), With Her GF currently, I told Her expect a "pastebomb"..
 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

On 12/2/2018 at 5:51 PM, Wow said:

2/2004 as I recall it was modeled always as a good precip maker with temp issues but in the last 72 hrs it trended colder and colder with each run. 

also, Fishel and WRAL seem to often speak as if their entire audience lives in Wake County and Raleigh. The microclimates of Chapel Hill, Durham, and Person County often are a total different world during winter events.

[JoshWeather]

Just now, Regan said:

Still saying 1-3. Even with NWS saying 4-6. 

I mean...hes a 30+ year met.  I dont think just because NWS puts out their call that it affects his thoughts that much.

[JoshWeather]

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

also, Fishel and WRAL seem to often speak as if their entire audience lives in Wake County and Raleigh. The microclimates of Chapel Hill, Durham, and Person County often are a total different world during winter events.

Im from person county...trust me...the people there know to add a couple inches atleast to whatever wral calls for.

[BIG FROSTY]

Imma still going to believe this thing called a RGEM It's the best!!! 

[Regan]

2 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

I mean...hes a 30+ year met.  I dont think just because NWS puts out their call that it affects his thoughts that much.

Well seems all the tv mets are saying 1-3. 

[WidreMann]

Just now, Regan said:

Well seems all the tv mets are saying 1-3. 

For Wake County, that's probably reasonable, except the northern parts. Even compatible with NWS forecast tbh.

[DC2Winston]

27 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Last one for the night, the GGEM. Just about every model has between 10-14" in the northern Triad. 

Man that is a crazy tight gradient south of Winston/GSO. A foot to near zero in 30 miles 

[SnowDawg]

Fv3 looks to be sticking to its guns.

[RTPGiants]

The thing is, it pays for TV mets to be conservative. In our area things will be conservative say 90% of the time. So if you call low 100% of the time, you'll be right 90% of the time. The other 10% of the time you'll be forgiven. If you call high one time when it's not there, people will always remember that. Fishel gets to hang his hat on the 2000 storm where he was basically the only one to get it right, but late in his career (arguably) it's easy to just take the conservative road and be right most of the time. That's not really a criticism per se, it's just a way to maintain a steady state.

[CaryWx]

6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

also, Fishel and WRAL seem to often speak as if their entire audience lives in Wake County and Raleigh. The microclimates of Chapel Hill, Durham, and Person County often are a total different world during winter events.

Fish's comments wrt temps up north not being very cold were in reference to getting any copious amounts of zr which he believes will not be likely in the area.  Rather more of a rain/snow event.  That's reasonable.  We might be lucky this isn't January or at least the HP which was modeled as a 1040 earlier in the week is now being projected as only a 1033/34 or so.

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

The thing is, it pays for TV mets to be conservative. In our area things will be conservative say 90% of the time. So if you call low 100% of the time, you'll be right 90% of the time. The other 10% of the time you'll be forgiven. If you call high one time when it's not there, people will always remember that. Fishel gets to hang his hat on the 2000 storm where he was basically the only one to get it right, but late in his career (arguably) it's easy to just take the conservative road and be right most of the time. That's not really a criticism per se, it's just a way to maintain a steady state.

To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion).  I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.

[WidreMann]

Just now, cbmclean said:

To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion).  I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.

What happened in January 2016?

[UpstateSCGamecock]

Fv3 looks to be sticking to its guns.

.

[BIG FROSTY]

Another good run for GFS Jr. 

[wxdawg10]

1 minute ago, WidreMann said:

What happened in January 2016?

i think he meant January 2017. the infamous bust

[UpstateSCGamecock]

Another good run for GFS Jr. 

 

Upstate SC followers hope it’s correct.

 

 

.