Dunkman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Poimen said: Should the RGEM concern us? It's basically a sleet storm for even the Triad. I seem to recall that it has performed well in the past. Absolutely. As you know I'm sure, it can always sleet here. We've had mostly IP storms when the models never even hinted at mixing until in the short range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: Without soundings it's hard to know what's going on. Maybe it's an issue with the program indicating sleet when it's actually a snow sounding? I mean it was showing sleet on the maps even over the mountains and we know that's not the case. It still has 8-11" in our neck of the woods. Yeah would view as outlier but is a head scratcher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Old GFS is out there on its own with the speed of the system. Hauling ass by hr24, whereas some of the other models discussed are well to the west of where the GFS has the LP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Lemonade Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 fwiw hr 33 0z gfs hr 36 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Much further east into NC with the quicker system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Old GFS is out there on its own with the speed of the system. Hauling ass by hr24, whereas some of the other models discussed are well to the west of where the GFS has the LP. Whoa, it's like 200 miles east of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Whoa, it's like 200 miles east of the NAM Yea for real! And the RGEM and the ICON. Either all 3 of those are smoking something good or the GFS is up to its usual bs ways. FV3 has been behaving more like the first 3 models. The system slowing down is having huge implications on being able to make somewhat of a northward trek up toward hatteras and that is why the gfs looks so much different imo. I’m thinking ultimate track is CHS to MYR to Hatteras and then east from there when the confluence shuts it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Snow to ECU by 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 That actually looks way better for SC for frozen. Shows .75 -1.25 falling with temp below freezing; maybe all ice though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Kuchera map is huge for RDU as well. This is the weenie version. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 soundings much improved for clt. i pray to god it is onto something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The GFS is about 75 to 100 miles further south with precip shield and has lower qpf than any model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The GFS is about 75 to 100 miles further south with precip shield and has lower qpf than any model Did it initialize good? Id love a fast ots. But aint holding my breathe with this ole model as much as Id like for it to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: The footprint of where the heaviest accum will be is the same as the NAM it’s just about half the amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 You know it's a good night when the worst model runs only give you 10". 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 FV3 has lowered it's qpf some...but still pretty beefy. I'm guessing this is close 1.5" in the Triad, which is in line with other guidance, except the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: FV3 has lowered it's qpf some...but still pretty beefy. I'm guessing this is close 1.5" in the Triad, which is in line with other guidance, except the GFS. @wncsnow @BornAgain13 looks like FV3 made incremental steps toward a wetter solution once again for southern VA. Good area of 1” qpf now showing up. Very good sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: FV3 has lowered it's qpf some...but still pretty beefy. I'm guessing this is close 1.5" in the Triad, which is in line with other guidance, except the GFS. Very minor differences.. Pretty much on par with the 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 0z Canadian just out. Holds serve on bringing beefier precip up into northern areas. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: All the models are looking sexy tonight. Looks like the Fish is sticking to his 1-3. Even after the NWS jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The GFS just continues to still look different from the others and its much quicker. It comes and goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 32/27 @ Burlington airport 32/29 @ lexington airport 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: The GFS just continues to still look different from the others and its much quicker. It comes and goes. It’s the timing. Exactly what it is. Of course a 200 mile difference is going to affect the surface depiction. Hence why we say bye bye Jan 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 0z Canadian just out. Holds serve on bringing beefier precip up into northern areas. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=039 1033 Hp in PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 @BornAgain13 lmfao! Bro don’t even look at the CMC total snowfall it’s like 30” for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Brad P adjusting his totals SOUTH. Hinted earlier that he might have the metro more in the 4-8" range. Have not seen his new maps yet (on at 11), but I'm very curious as to what he's seeing. Hopefully not just too busy to have seen the recent (non-GFS) model suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Lol, CMC , brings about 27" to my area... Very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The ICON: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Upper teens dewpoints are down to Richmond VA per latest mesowest. UPPER 20s crossing NC border. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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