wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 28 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Why doesn't the GSP WSW language match up at all with the GSP current expected snowfall maps? Seems odd. 2-6 for the metro sounds very reasonable, but the mountains could easily exceed 6-10. Mountains and the Northern Foothills(Burke Caldwell McDowell) have there own winter storm warning calling for 12-16 inches. NCZ033-035-049-050-501>506-081000- /O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0006.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ Avery-Alexander-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains- Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains- Eastern McDowell- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, and Glenwood 345 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches. Ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch are also possible along and south of I-40. * WHERE...The northern mountains and foothills of North Carolina. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult or even impossible. Road conditions will deteriorate Saturday night, with highway travel continuing to be impacted through early next week. Visibility may drop to less than a half mile during periods of heavy snow. A few power outages will occur. Widespread, prolonged power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message with your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report using hashtag nwsgsp. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Wimberley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Well, this sounds good: https://www.wyff4.com/article/duke-energy-projects-winter-storm-could-result-in-500000-power-outages/25440298 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I'm under a Winter Storm Watch for rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 RAH’s afd should please the Triangle greatly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 RAH Southern stream shortwave over the Lower MS Valley Saturday evening will eject east-northeast across the Southeast US through Sunday night. At the surface, attendant sfc low traversing the Gulf Coast States on Saturday will re-organize off the SE coast Sunday and Sunday night before moving out to sea on Monday. Preceded by a strong cold Arctic high that will build into the area from the north Saturday and Saturday night, there is still high confidence that a significant winter weather event will unfold across central NC late Saturday night and Sunday, with the potential for some lingering light precipitation Sunday night as the next shortwave trough approaches the area from the west. Forecast confidence in snow amounts are highest along and north of the I-85, including the Triad, where the strong CAD High to our north and associated diabatic cooling will keep the low-level cold air locked in place and where the warm nose will be less prominent. So after a potential brief mix at onset Saturday night, the predominate p-type will be mostly snow through late Sunday afternoon and evening, transitioning to a light freezing rain/drizzle, once we loss saturation aloft and lift/forcing begins to weaken. Have kept snowfall amounts in the 8 to 12 inches range, with the bulk of this falling between 4 am to pm Sunday. An additional 0.10" of ice from light freezing rain/drizzle on top of the snow is possible. Given, this is the area where confidence is highest, will upgrade the winter storm watch to a warning across the far NW Piedmont counties, including Person County. Just east of this heavy snow area(south and east of I-85) and west of Interstate 95, given the potential for the warm nose aloft to support multiple p-types throughout much of the event, forecast confidence in snow amounts are much lower in this area, which would greatly cut-back on snow accumulation. However, the latest 12 km NAM has trended colder both in the low-levels and aloft across the central/northern Piedmont, as well into the northern coastal Plain. Given the colder thermal profiles, snow and sleet could now linger into afternoon/early evening, before changing over to freezing rain/drizzle with loss of saturation and lift aloft Sunday evening/night. Have expanded the Winter Storm Watch east to include areas west of I-95. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible, with expectations of a sharp cut-off along the eastern edge of these area. IF the warm air aloft is indeed stronger than advertised, the impacts across this area will still be great, with the potential for ice accumulations from freezing rain of 0.10-0.20" possible. Finally, for areas east of I-95 and across the far se counties, rain Saturday night/Sunday morning could briefly mix with sleet and freezing rain before changing over to rain. At this time, snow and ice amounts are expected to be light. As such, will be omitted from the watch. Temperatures: Lows Saturday night in the upper 20s NW to mid 30s, with only a 2 to 3 degree recovery expected on Sunday. Lows Sunday night very similar to Saturday night. Thus any snow and ice on roads and surfaces will linger through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Looks like there’s a consensus forming here on the 18z models thus far. RGEM, NAM and ICON all have the low paralleling the coast up toward the outer banks now and one would suspect that the 18z CMC once it comes out would show something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 RGEM Kuchera 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: RGEM Kuchera Still snowing past that time frame as well up our way at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, wake4est said: RAH’s afd should please the Triangle greatly I'm presuming the forecast map will be updated soon. RDU is currently shown at 2". Based on a blend of the guidance, I'm thinking 3"-6". I haven't looked at the 18z guidance, yet, so maybe something changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 34 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Why doesn't the GSP WSW language match up at all with the GSP current expected snowfall maps? Seems odd. 2-6 for the metro sounds very reasonable, but the mountains could easily exceed 6-10. I'd check the counties. Cause my WSW just issued by them covers portions of Western NC, NW upstate, and far NE GA and it has a ridiculously wide range of 2 to 17 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 At this point I'd still weigh heavily on the FV3 for its amazing consistency and the Euro especially tonight's 00z run. It's king for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18z GFS is pretty much keeping with 12z out to 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 Well this is a shocker... https://www.weathernerds.org/models/nam.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=Snow_Depth&initcycle=determine&initfhour=078&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=669&initrange=34.156551683777:277.835199999948:32.607949264087:280.751514074022&initcx1=NaN&initcy1=NaN&initcx2=NaN&initcy2=NaN&initcross=False&initsound=True&initsoundx=456&initsoundy=353&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=084&initlint=6&initol1=Snow_Depth&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Struggling to find differences between 18z GFS and 12z run through 24 hours. Not succeeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 At 30 hours, 850's slightly less impressive -- still basically holding serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: Struggling to find differences between 18z GFS and 12z run through 24 hours. Not succeeding. GFS extending the idea of a much more precip loaded western/northwestern side of the storm at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 But at 36 hours, 850s noticeably further south in S.C. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, beanskip said: Struggling to find differences between 18z GFS and 12z run through 24 hours. Not succeeding. At one point it looks a tad warmer then @36 it looks a tad colder...other than that looks about identical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: But at 36 hours, 850s noticeably further south in S.C. Yes I seen that. Hopefully FV3 will be similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 @42 looks like a little bit stronger CAD helping cool things in NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 @45 WNC is all snow. Looks great! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 @48 goes BOOM over WNC! Much like 12z. AVL gets demolished. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: @45 WNC is all snow. Looks great! How does GSP and Upstate look South Carolina thanks for the pbp 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Well this is a shocker... https://www.weathernerds.org/models/nam.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=Snow_Depth&initcycle=determine&initfhour=078&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=669&initrange=34.156551683777:277.835199999948:32.607949264087:280.751514074022&initcx1=NaN&initcy1=NaN&initcx2=NaN&initcy2=NaN&initcross=False&initsound=True&initsoundx=456&initsoundy=353&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=084&initlint=6&initol1=Snow_Depth&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On I make it -1.2c Good no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Latest Heavy Snow discussion. Sorry if already posted https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NE GA and far Western Upstate much warmer aloft at 42 yet on the frame before and after we're much colder so who knows what to make of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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