beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18z NAM 850s 0c line another 25 miles SW vs. 12z run at 26 hours. Good news for I-85 corridor in SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Wow, but it's so much slower that precip isn't arriving in time to take advantage of the colder temps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Yeah NAM is slower with the SLP and has a better high modeled. I think timing wise this takes it closer to the globals though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Even more dry at 30, Virga city: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This is weird run...LP is further south and slower. Temps rise, but then it looks like a good CAD setup is gonna reinforce and save the day. It's at hour 34 and outside of far western NC, much of NC hasn't seen any real precip yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 OK, so the NAM just warmed 2m temps by about 6 degrees F over the Carolinas vs. the 12z run at around 30 hours. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Maybe letting the cold air get in place longer before the precip arrives could end up being a good thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: OK, so the NAM just warmed 2m temps by about 6 degrees F over the Carolinas vs. the 12z run at around 30 hours. WTF? The column is less saturated, wait for the heavy precip to arrive before comparing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, olafminesaw said: The column is less saturated, wait for the heavy precip to arrive before comparing ^This comparing apples to oranges if the column isn't saturated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, beanskip said: OK, so the NAM just warmed 2m temps by about 6 degrees F over the Carolinas vs. the 12z run at around 30 hours. WTF? No evaporation cooling taking place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, beanskip said: OK, so the NAM just warmed 2m temps by about 6 degrees F over the Carolinas vs. the 12z run at around 30 hours. WTF? Need precip to really move in and crash the temps.. it's slower, thus the warmer temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 at 36 its pretty close to 12z, snow line may even be a bit south. precip just was slower. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: The column is less saturated, wait for the heavy precip to arrive before comparing Yep thats the difference in the surface temps in my opinion. Later onset means later to wetbulb down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Ah.. and at 36 hrs.. the temps start to crash 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 @39 heavy precip is moving in and temps are crashing. Matching up close to the GFS and Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Ok, I see now (although DPs also seem higher vs. 12z run). Will be interested to see how total QPF compares -- seems like more precip was lost in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 will the timing of the LP slowdown versus the NS affect suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Precip looks much more generous compared to 12z at 39 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 nam trends over the past 6 runs, temps cooler, precip slower. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: Ok, I see now (although DPs also seem higher vs. 12z run). Will be interested to see how total QPF compares -- seems like more precip was lost in this run. as in almost 12 hours of precip compared to timing on globals, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: Ok, I see now (although DPs also seem higher vs. 12z run). Will be interested to see how total QPF compares -- seems like more precip was lost in this run. Nah... really didn't lose that much to virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Looks a little wonky, but those are some cold 850's 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Temps aloft were better at the start because of slightly better high placement, so you just need the precip to start in order to drag them down to surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: Precip looks much more generous compared to 12z at 39 Yep this thing is juiced! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 A lot wetter over TN compared to 12z at 42.. then again also slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This is gonna be one of those nam runs of the past!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 People are going to like this run I think. Onset is later, but temps seem way better, and there's plenty of moisture being pulled in with a high right to the north. Seems like it might be a weenie FV-3 type run... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 temps much warmer at 45 than 12z though. a lot of frz rain and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Whatever happens whoever gets all snow is just going to get crushed. AVL looks to get demolished on this run. GSP probably also cashes in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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