PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 SREF mean is 2" for RDU with MANY members lower than that... Not looking great...lots of mixing and ice I'm afraid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, PackGrad05 said: SREF mean is 2" for RDU with MANY members lower than that... Not looking great...lots of mixing and ice I'm afraid. Good thing they are garbage. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Crazy to see a mean like this. 10 plus inches for Raleigh westward. FYI, I'm pretty sure a lot of that would be sleet/freezing rain, especially for areas on the S/E edge (like Raleigh). Still a significant storm, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Good thing they are garbage. I don't think they are garbage. I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps. In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Yeah, was it 2015 when the SREF plumes showed like 12-15 for Raleigh and we got like 2? lol . Plumes are garbage. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, superjames1992 said: FYI, I'm pretty sure a lot of that would be sleet/freezing rain, especially for areas on the S/E edge (like Raleigh). Still a significant storm, though. Yeah, even if you cut that in half, it's a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, PackGrad05 said: I don't think they are garbage. I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps. In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals. They are good. But literally only good 3-6 hours out. They will jump all over the place this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, PackGrad05 said: I don't think they are garbage. I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps. In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals. Well, if Cold Rain says they are garbage, that's good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Well there's no shortage of precip on the Euro up thru NC and it has more precip to the NW like the UKMet....temps looks similar...it's bringing the 0 deg at 850 back well inland Been consistent at flipping the 850 0 line back inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Euro looked pretty torchy to me but just glancing at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Euro thru 60 hrs 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Sure would be nice if we had an actual Arctic air mass to tap into. Maybe later this winter we can get a similar setup. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Euro looks almost identical to the GFS ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: Euro thru 60 hrs On the torchyness I guess not lol....this is what I get for trying to do this while out in public. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Blue Rudge escarpment gets pounded still. One thing I have noticed is the models seem to be taking the storm off the coast quicker and thus warming the 850s quicker with light precip trying to hang back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Ill cash out with 18 on that euro clown map and call it a day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: On the torchyness I guess not lol....this is what I get for trying to do this while out in public. 850 temps are within a degree or 2 of 0... close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NWS Raleigh just issued a briefing. Good info. They have a lot of uncertainty in snow amounts between US1 and 85. Said that anything north and west of 85 is looking at double digit snow amounts and will stay mostly snow. Heavier bands of precip will be of the frozen variety for Wake county and when it gets lighter that is when the transition to rain will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Euro Total Precip last 4 runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, burgertime said: On the torchyness I guess not lol....this is what I get for trying to do this while out in public. You can get arrested for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 euro kuchera maps brought the snow line a tick north but nothing huge. 4-6" for clt on the front end snow before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: Euro Total Precip last 4 runs The 12Z runs have al nudged the precip back north some which is good for some in VA like me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Would anyone hazard to guess the euro lines up with the NAM? Double EE rule and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Euro looks almost identical to the GFS ensemble mean. Looks a lot like Feb 2014 Euro Clown map for upstate. This one puts me in the 12-16 range - will never happen. If this were my only piece of info Id go with 1-3 of slush. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 yea are the WRFs worth anything this far out? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Not sure I see anything to warrant a WSW for next layer of counties in the eastern piedmont. Just Advisory criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The 12Z runs have al nudged the precip back north some which is good for some in VA like me @Disc @wncsnow @BornAgain13 Got to like the trends here at 12z. The RGEM is straight sexy! Has a completely different solution though. End of the 48hr run it tries to do some type of transfer with the low over Alabama. Big snows look like they would reach up here. Plus that is one hell of a squall line approaching northwestern FL. Goes to show the dynamics with this system. RGEM/3K/ICON/CMC ftw!! Euro looks improved as well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I simply can't believe the consitancy of the FV3 over the past week, it hasn't waivered one bit. What a coup if the overall depictions (not clown map) verified. Still wish that western upstate minimum would go away and fill in with the heavier stuff but i guess it is what it is. I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania. We had a snowstorm on 11/15. Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area. The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior. The Mets blew them off. The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said. We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office. On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW. By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet. We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”. The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk. The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home. 11 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Tatamy said: I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania. We had a snowstorm on 11/15. Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area. The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior. The Mets blew them off. The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said. We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office. On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW. By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet. We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”. The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk. The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home. Let's hope we have a similar story. Thanks for the insight! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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