SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm. I definitely see potential in ATL Monday if the 12Z verified as shown (which it likely won't). There is a weak surface reflection off SAV along with the upper low coming across. Often times a weak surface reflection like that is all it takes to crank more moisture in than expected. I regularly saw that burn forecasters in OK often if you got a weak low to form in SE TX. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 21 minutes ago, Hvward said: Here’s my most recent forecast map. So, if you live in Person, Granville, Vance, and Warren for example, snow totals will be determined by the state line. I don't disagree with the assessment, but the graphic needs work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: For folks along I-85 GSP to CLT as usual it's gonna be a battle between sleet and snow but if we can get just enough cold air those totals could easily be higher. I think it will still be some significant totals. I would not be surprised to wring out 8-12" total, based on a blend of all the models right now. My excitement meter is rising fo sho! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I think we could get 6 to 8 of snow with some ice on top. Maybe, that would match up with the NWS's worse case situation; which it looks like the models are leaning towards (at this time). But, the last few storms we've tracked have been a little warmer then advertised at go live. Maybe this is different, I would like to see the models come in a little colder; whereas the snow line stays down in Harnett and Johnson county the whole event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Looking super promising at the moment. 12Z NAM soundings are surprisingly supportive of all snow (no mixing at all during the event). So then snowfall will be determined by ratios and compaction. Looking in great position based on the NAM! AVL might be the place to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: It will have an effect today...in fact it will be a lot colder....up to 15 degrees colder than all of them showed 2 days ago. Unfortunately it doesn't have much impact on whatever falls saturday. Sort of frustrating it can be 15 degrees colder the day before and not really matter lol You are in a much improved spot vs 24 hours ago. If the latest few runs of the fv3, euro, and nam are correct, you will get a lot more sleet/snow. You are right about the precip rates/freezing rain though...it's one reason why i haven't been too excited about it outside the higher elevations/your area and the rates/marginal temps would keep accretions down. That said, nam has 950mb temps dropping below freezing as early as late afternoon tomorrow over your area so you should get quite a bit of wintery precip. I am definitely liking how it looks better this morning, but being on the edge, especially the southern edge, always makes me nervous lol. it is early December so expectations are tempered (but excitement over the possibilities the models are showing is not tempered). I have seen it 31 and raining so hard it just never really gets a glaze going. at least it looks like the chances of the higher ice accumulations are down. I love a good ice storm but like to keep my power on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Poimen said: Models are coming around to the idea of moistening the column earlier, resulting in higher snow totals. Soundings from the NAM were terrific for Forsyth county. We're squarely in line for a 12"-15" in storm here. You runing the soundings off pti or smith reynolds airport. I love all your post as your close by to me ,burns,packfan and a few others. Saves us alot if legwork 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Maybe, that would match up with the NWS's worse case situation; which it looks like the models are leaning towards (at this time). But, the last few storms we've tracked have been a little warmer then advertised at go live. Maybe this is different, I would like to see the models come in a little colder; whereas the snow line stays down in Harnett and Johnson county the whole event. That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake. Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm. Congrats you might deserve this the most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: So, if you live in Person, Granville, Vance, and Warren for example, snow totals will be determined by the state line. I don't disagree with the assessment, but the graphic needs work. His focus/expertise is Asheville and WNC, not the VA/NC state line. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Sleeting here in Greenville already. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, eyewall said: The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains. 16 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Sure has and a good point. Note though there is no GoM or CAD in effect for that region like there will be in our area. Like others, I think that is because the energy is more strung out and further south... Sorry Virginia! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3K NAM Kuchera from Pivotal Weather. Not quite as bullish on the southern extent as the 12K NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: Sleeting here in Greenville already. Rule of thumb CAD is always underesrimated, have fun Bloo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Like others, I think that is because the energy is more strung out and further south... Sorry Virginia! yep. So close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I want to see the RGEM. I'm betting that the models keep creeping that cold further down into Canada to help usher in colder air. My guess is it'll get better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: You runing the soundings off pti or smith reynolds airport. I love all your post as your close by to me ,burns,packfan and a few others. Saves us alot if legwork I just click on the map in the zoomed-in mode on Pivotal. I'm able to click close to my location in eastern Forsyth. I will say that areas south of 85 in the Triad look to have more sleet than north of 85. It's close. Either way, should be a good storm for all of us int he area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Sleeting here in Greenville already. For people with more knowledge, will earlier onset of precip help keep temps down and help build in that CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Lancaster County, SC is now under a Winter Storm Watch. It was previously under an advisory. Makes me feel slightly better about there being less of a warm nose for the CLT metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 My sister just sent me video. Light snow and sleet in Boiling Springs, SC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 My guess is that the suppression trend is partly tied to this: the trend is for the ULL to "landfall" into Baja California as a more and more positively tilted wave. This positive tilt has ramifications downstream for its orientation, how amp the wave gets, and where some temperature profiles set up because a more negative tilt can raise heights downstream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, CaryWx said: That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake. Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid. Seems about the same for south Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, CaryWx said: That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake. Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid. This might not be a bad thing. There's nothing worse than hearing the low hum and explosion of overloaded transformers during an ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 yes, still sleeting in Greenville - but quite mild at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This looks damn good. 12z RGM at 48 hours.....well before the storm is over. By the way I can't stress enough how SV is only $20 a month. Well worth the cost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Looking at analysis data, it looks like the current HP is not as stretched out and has a forward lean (east) than what the 12z NAM forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said: Looking at analysis data, it looks like the current HP is not as stretched out and has a forward lean (east) than what the 12z NAM forecasted. That good for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 38 and wet snow falling here now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: Lancaster County, SC is now under a Winter Storm Watch. It was previously under an advisory. Makes me feel slightly better about there being less of a warm nose for the CLT metro. Yeah, Not in that neck of the woods but find it strange for that one county sort out by itself to have a Watch. Almost have to believe the adjacent counties to its west would also come under WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: 38 and wet snow falling here now. Hell yea..too bad I'm in Charlotte till tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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