beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 At 27 hours -- 850 temps looking nice over NC -- the 0C line has moved south a little, but the gradient is better -- that is, -5 temps have made it across the VA/NC line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 wow much better look at hr30. snow line below the state line, similar to euro and fv3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: You guys in the Carolina's are looking good... as for me on the border in VA, the QPF keeps heading south... at this point , the storm looks very minimal here... even though the NWS has us getting 12" still Greensboro is only like 50-60 miles from you and I believe we are getting a ton. I'm sure you will be fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Thor said: Pretty amazing wall the moisture is hitting on 12z nam FWIW, 850 line near the NC/SC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 hr32 and upstate looks to be all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Stronger cold push over 6z. Dewpoints, 850s, and surface all colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said: Just FYI, Cranky Weather Guy isn't a meteorologist so take anything they say with a grain of salt. It's been pointed out on this forum before how off base they've been. He hasn't been good lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The 850's are so much colder this run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1039 HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 well this is an improvement. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said: Just FYI, Cranky Weather Guy isn't a meteorologist so take anything they say with a grain of salt. It's been pointed out on this forum before how off base they've been. Oh okay I didn’t know that. I had seen some others share links to his blog this week was the only reason I had read that last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Stronger high pressure it appears. 1039. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 ILMROSS Good points. Also how the models got egg faced in the crusher. If you read the write up from NWS all the occlusion etc that happened off the coast as storm bombed out. It was a good write up on how they missed it, a what went wrong model world kinda of deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Wow -- huge surge south of 850 temps vs. 6z run -- about 50 miles south at 30 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: hr32 and upstate looks to be all snow. Really looking like it's going to be the "north of 85" special for the upstate. The south trends are encouraging. Hopefully that wedge can get the cold air a little further south to get more upstate SC people in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I honestly can't decide what it's going to do in the northern upstate. I think the most logical outcome is mostly cold rain, but there's definitely a chance we could get buried. I'll remain cautiously optimistic, but expect 1 inch of sleet accumulation for my storm total. If that lead finger of precip could be mostly snow for us, we could really rack up. It appears the mid-levels will be borderline cold enough for the finger... but surface temps are around 35-37. If the mid-levels are cold enough, i imagine we could cool the surface down to 32-33 with heavy rates inside the finger. Regardless, the mountains on the NC/SC border are going to get obliterated, both by the lead finger and the main storm. I'm calling the jackpot for the storm as somewhere around rosman/brevard with a total of 20 inches. I agree, the escarpment just off the Great Balsams will be the prime spot for our area. We're pulling our hair out over here trying to nail down where the cutoff line will be from sleet/light snow to heavy snow. A good number of folks in SW NC will be disappointed, more so Macon/Jackson moving southwest, Haywood looks like a lock for a heavy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Definitely some changes vs. 6z with the orientation of the 5h disturbance. I'm not smart enough to figure out what it means, but just eyeballing, something has changed. EDIT: 12z version seems flatter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 A bit confused out to 36 on NAM. LP is north of previous run, but precip shield just runs into some sort of wall in mid NC. What's up with that? Looks like it might slide south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I’m hugging the NAM and GFSv3! And taking my 2” of sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, localyokelweather said: I agree, the escarpment just off the Great Balsams will be the prime spot for our area. We're pulling our hair out over here trying to nail down where the cutoff line will be from sleet/light snow to heavy snow. A good number of folks in SW NC will be disappointed, more so Macon/Jackson moving southwest, Haywood looks like a lock for a heavy event. I'm confident highlands will be good. Gonna be a big score or heartbreaker here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Surface low is quite a bit faster than 6z run -- was over Mobile Bay -- now all the way over to Milton, NW of Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 nam really cranking at hr39 and upstate looks to be all snow again after some brief mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I’m hugging the NAM and GFSv3! And taking my 2” of sleet! If you get 2" of sleet in Simpsonville I'll be happy with my 4" of snow in Easley! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: Definitely some changes vs. 6z with the orientation of the 5h disturbance. I'm not smart enough to figure out what it means, but just eyeballing, something has changed. EDIT: 12z version seems flatter? The s/w is weaker and flatter... This will certainly keep the ice away and make this more rain vs. snow. Looks more like the GFS in that sense 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, localyokelweather said: I agree, the escarpment just off the Great Balsams will be the prime spot for our area. We're pulling our hair out over here trying to nail down where the cutoff line will be from sleet/light snow to heavy snow. A good number of folks in SW NC will be disappointed, more so Macon/Jackson moving southwest, Haywood looks like a lock for a heavy event. 12Z Nam looks much better for sw NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, RTPGiants said: A bit confused out to 36 on NAM. LP is north of previous run, but precip shield just runs into some sort of wall in mid NC. What's up with that? Looks like it might slide south? It is because the High pressure is 1039 this run instead of 1036. More of a press down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Would love to see 18z and 00z continue the 850’s moving south across the upstate SC. Maybe NAM moving slowly toward the GFES and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Pivotal Weather has a better simulation than TT (and snow maps). It just light precip, based on the sounding it should be a rain snow mix in GSO at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I shall break this precip wall with mine hammer, but i doubt precip extent shown I think the big take is much colder look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Upstate and SW NC getting NAM'ed at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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