olafminesaw Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 It's great that the majority of the heavy precip will be falling during the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I'm not even posting V3 clown maps, they're insane, even by weenie standards.Oh come on, please do. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, JoshM said: I'm not even posting V3 clown maps, they're insane, even by weenie standards. You really should haha. Only +30 from upstate to GSO 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: I'm not even posting V3 clown maps, they're insane, even by weenie standards. Do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, lilj4425 said: Do it. The 30+ looks to be over me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Mind you it's still snowing in most of NC and upstate SC still 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I give that 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Mind you it's still snowing in most of NC and upstate SC still .000000000001% of verifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: I give that .000000000001% of verifying. SO THERE'S A CHANCE?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: Mind you it's still snowing in most of NC and upstate SC still All of that is snow for Upstate SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The 6Z NAM has 10-13" totals in Forsyth county running over into extreme NW Guilford. But only 7" in GSO proper. The NAM is continuing to improve overall. It has upped total qpf to over 1.5" in this area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I think FV3 seeing ALL precip as snow. Has close to 3 inches of QPF for most of that 30 inch area...850's look pretty good. So cut the actual snow ratio down a bit and you're still at like 12-20 inches if that were to verify. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, burgertime said: I think FV3 seeing ALL precip as snow. Has close to 3 inches of QPF for most of that 30 inch area...850's look pretty good. So cut the actual snow ratio down a bit and you're still at like 12-20 inches if that were to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Both Old and New GFS continues the trend south... also the new 06z GEFS follows south into NC , waving back at VA saying see you another time. James, 6z Canadian still looks really good for us. Let me know if the link worked http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-animation.php?mod=gemglb&run=06&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS and Euro ENS side by side. They have been fairly locked in for 48hours now. Then you have the NAM, which is north, leaves RDU to CLT with rain mostly. If the NAM didn't do so well last year then Id be planning on sunday sledding routines right now here in Raleigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, PackWxMan said: GFS and Euro ENS side by side. They have been fairly locked in for 48hours now. Then you have the NAM, which is north, leaves RDU to CLT with rain mostly. If the NAM didn't do so well last year then Id be planning on sunday sledding routines right now here in Raleigh. Even the NAM has slowly been trending more southern i think it'll come in line with the other models pretty soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, burgertime said: By the way here is the 6z RGEM snowfall map out to hour 54 Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I dont agree the NAM is trending south... here is the latest NAM and I feel its been like this several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Forsyth county peeps: The EURO and NAM both drop 10-15" across our county. You can't ask for a better combo at this range in my opinion. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: I dont agree the NAM is trending south... here is the latest NAM and I feel its been like this several runs It has trended south from yesterday's runs, but still playing catch-up. Don't worry, by tonight the models will likely converge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: Even the NAM has slowly been trending more southern i think it'll come in line with the other models pretty soon It's (now) at least a major ice storm for many (including Triangle folks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 That NAM snowfall map posted above only goes through 1 PM Sunday. Lots of QPF left after that time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 What I find a bit interesting and it most likely will have nothing to do with our area, is how the WSW's and WWA's have shifted quite a bit south in TX and OK. Before OKC was expecting 4-8 inches, that has gone down and that line of heavier snow has shifted to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 40 minutes ago, burgertime said: By the way here is the 6z RGEM snowfall map out to hour 54 Good sign for us folks living on a razors edge that the RGEM is already showing the same totals or more here as NAM out to only 54 hours. If the GFS and others trend just a little further south and get the Meck Union county line into the bullseye area I’ll feel a lot more comfortable that we at least end up with more than 1 or 2 inches of snow and a lot of ice. I’ve said it a few times before, it can pay off being this close if we end up on the right side of that dividing line. Here’s to hoping! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah. There is no doubt that ice will be a significant problem in these areas. However, northern Wake could see a good period of snow before transitioning to sleet/freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: That NAM snowfall map posted above only goes through 1 PM Sunday. Lots of QPF left after that time. Thanks for posting that. Didn’t catch it when first looked at map. I’m 57 and I don’t ever remember seeing a storm of this size this early in the season. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Today begins my favorite part of the storm, the nowcasting. We can start comparing the actual storm to model forecasts. Rain has already made it to Huntsville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 someone posted a link to a really discussion from NWS blacksburg that mentioned the WAA may not be as pronounced as originally modeled for anyone wondering. might be another reason why totals are getting beefed up by the models. might be picking up on it. it'll prob still mix around wake co but more wintry atleast at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GSP due to release updated maps shortly but this summarizes living in NC lol. 9/10 chance of greater than 0” lol and 1/10 of greater than a foot. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: someone posted a link to a really discussion from NWS blacksburg that mentioned the WAA won't be as pronounced as originally modeled for anyone wondering why totals are getting beefed up WPC also stated this. Good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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