wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 420 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... .Cold high pressure along the East Coast will interact with a moist low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night into Sunday. Moderate to heavy precipitation will fall as a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the region. Accumulations are expected to be greatest in western North Carolina. NCZ035-502-504-506-071730- /O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0005.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0006.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ Alexander-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, and Glenwood 420 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches expected. * WHERE...Alexander, Greater Caldwell, Greater Burke and Eastern McDowell Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Road conditions could deteriorate as early as Saturday evening, with highway travel continuing to be impacted through early next week. Visibility may drop to less than a half mile during periods of heavy snow. Widespread, prolonged power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message with your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report using hashtag nwsgsp. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 For RDU folks, the 6z NAM was an improvement (maybe). The 0z had almost all of Wake in the 2" range (kuchera). You had to get into Chatham and northern Durham to see anything approaching 5". The 6z NAM pushes the 5-6" snows into northern Wake over into all of Durham. Funny but a little less in south central Chatham. Looks a little more south to north with the ranges compared to the 0z with its west to east cutoff zones. Dealing with freezing rain, looks like warning criteria ice for everybody; but it is less (lots of .5" totals compared to last run with over .80"). Also there was a shift east and south of the freezing rain. Folks in Johnson and Harnett counties would get warning criteria amounts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6z GFS is a touch colder than 12z also not as wet. This storm can turn either way for folks east of I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, burgertime said: 6z GFS is a touch colder than 12z also not as wet. This storm can turn either way for folks east of I-40. Definitely weaker. Looks to scoot that low faster out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Man, the trend overnight and this morning are really taking the moisture away from VA.... starting to get a little concerned my way of getting hardly anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Man, the trend overnight and this morning are really taking the moisture away from VA.... starting to get a little concerned my way of getting hardly anything. The 6z GFS has nothing past the VA/NC boarder. Big drop in total precip and coverage. I was about to post the snow map but I'm having issues uploading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I was thinking that this would happen, when I saw the south trends last night. That increases our chances of staying all snow, but it reduces the totals. I'll take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Happy for you guys down in NC, but if this stays where it's at or trends further south. Man this would really stink.... especially when the NWS has my area getting 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 RGEM looks great. Looks like it confines the snow to NC northward, It has more north/south p-type cutoff zones allowing places farther east (like Rocky Mount) to get some initial snow. It only goes out to hour 54, but at that time it looks like good snowfall everywhere north from just north of Charlotte to south Wake to Rocky Mount. Below that line is a sleet fest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, FallsLake said: RGEM looks great. Looks like it confines the snow to NC northward, It has more north/south p-type cutoff zones allowing places farther east (like Rocky Mount) to get some initial snow. It only goes out to hour 54, but at that time it looks like good snowfall everywhere north from just north of Charlotte to south Wake to Rocky Mount. Below that line is a sleet fest. This is gonna be one of those "one city over" heartbreakers where you'll see a big dividing line between like 2 inches of compacted sleet snow and a foot of snow that next city over. I'm really interested to see if the NAM trends colder. I have a feeling it's picking up that cold air press in Canada. We're starting to get into good sampling range. RGEM should really be paid attention for that reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 WPC Heavy Snowfall Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 hours ago, wxduncan said: My bad for some reason I thought you was down in Rutherford county below me. Edit: Still think we are both fine unless something drastic happens in our 48 hour less window before go time. Im the one one that lives down in Rutherford County. Use to have a few others inhere but they have left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: WPC Heavy Snowfall Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Wow. Everyone should read this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, burgertime said: Wow. Everyone should read this. That part about heavy snow for Upstate SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 WPC Maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 From WPC Quote Guidance has trended southward this morning in response to a stronger and drier high pressure to the north wedging down along the eastern side of the Appalachians. SW flow aloft will transport increasing moisture on WAA and intense isentropic upglide, causing precipitation to overspread the region from south to north early Saturday, and persisting through Monday morning. Initially, precipitation may all be freezing rain/sleet, but intensifying frontogenesis will cause dynamic cooling of the column changing the precip over to snow in the terrain of SC/NC and points north towards WV. A prolonged period of heavy snow is likely in this area, and WPC probabilities show a high risk for 8 inches of snow, with a moderate risk for 12 or more. South and east of the maximum area of snow, a sharp gradient is likely where the 850-700mb warm nose greater than 0C lifts northward. The mean flow is easterly, which is not as robust as a more typical SE wind to erode the wedge to permit warm nose advection into the area. Additionally, diabatic cooling due to precipitation falling into the wedge will likely reinforce or intensify that feature, causing an increase in the pressure gradient, and a southward push of colder air due to isallobaric acceleration. This suggests heavy snow is likely into the upstate of SC, and eastward towards the Triangle of NC, as well as approaching the Coastal Plain of SE VA late on Day 3. Here, WPC probabilities are moderate for 4 inches. Well north, into WV and KY, confidence is lower due to the southern trend in guidance and the dry air which will be tough to overcome, so WPC probabilities are lower for heavy snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, burgertime said: This is gonna be one of those "one city over" heartbreakers where you'll see a big dividing line between like 2 inches of compacted sleet snow and a foot of snow that next city over. I'm really interested to see if the NAM trends colder. I have a feeling it's picking up that cold air press in Canada. We're starting to get into good sampling range. RGEM should really be paid attention for that reason. Just the normal crap we have endure tracking winter storms for our area....lol I mean my area (...you're in Europe!). You need to move back to fully feel the pain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 And.... the FV3-GFS shifted south again.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, burgertime said: This is gonna be one of those "one city over" heartbreakers where you'll see a big dividing line between like 2 inches of compacted sleet snow and a foot of snow that next city over. I'm really interested to see if the NAM trends colder. I have a feeling it's picking up that cold air press in Canada. We're starting to get into good sampling range. RGEM should really be paid attention for that reason. Yeah. What usually happens in this situations is that the surface temps trend colder with the CAD but the warm nose becomes more apparent on the hi-res models. More people end up with a higher impact event due with more fzrn and sleet, but the big totals don't come to fruition in the I-85 corridor. Lots of boom or bust potential with this one. I can't believe the NWS offices are going so high with totals this early. I believe I would have went with 1-2, 2-4, and ease on up after looking at the column. They are the experts and get things right most of the time, but this one will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Just the normal crap we have endure tracking winter storms for our area....lol I mean my area (...you're in Europe!). You need to move back to fully feel the pain again. Don't worry, average temp here during the winter is around 40 degrees with rain almost every day and when it does get cold and there's moisture it's usually 33 and rain. I've seen one good snow here and it only stayed on the ground for like 1 day. Got so cold the canals froze over and couldn't get any moisture. Every winter I get triggered with flashbacks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: And.... the FV3-GFS shifted south again.... Temps, qpf, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, packfan98 said: Yeah. What usually happens in this situations is that the surface temps trend colder with the CAD but the warm nose becomes more apparent on the hi-res models. More people end up with a higher impact event due with more fzrn and sleet, but the big totals don't come to fruition in the I-85 corridor. Lots of boom or bust potential with this one. I can't believe the NWS offices are going so high with totals this early. I believe I would have went with 1-2, 2-4, and ease on up after looking at the column. They are the experts and get things right most of the time, but this one will be interesting. Because it's driven by easterly winds the warm nose won't be as big of a factor according to WPC. So this really could paste you guys for once. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 WPC saying the WAA coming in on those SE winds will be weaker than normal, that's great news if true. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: Temps, qpf, or both? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: And.... the FV3-GFS shifted south again.... Quick question James. Is this just the new PARA run of the GFS? I don't see it on stormvista but they do have a parallel GFS map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Wedge a little more stout than 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: Quick question James. Is this just the new PARA run of the GFS? I don't see it on stormvista but they do have a parallel GFS map. Both Old and New GFS continues the trend south... also the new 06z GEFS follows south into NC , waving back at VA saying see you another time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, SimeonNC said: The FV3 is going to replace the current GFS in about a month. Thanks. Just trying to figure out if that's the map I'm looking at in SV. I'll assume it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 By the way here is the 6z RGEM snowfall map out to hour 54 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I'm not even posting V3 clown maps, they're insane, even by weenie standards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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