SENC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 next 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I think we can all agree that the extended ranges of the NAM are suspect and that it’s snow map on TT is ridiculous. But there is going to be warming aloft here. And it will be warmer and more extensive than the globals are showing. For many in central NC, assuming we don’t have a convection moisture robbing situation (which is possible), there is going to be a lot of sleet and ZR, even back into the Triad and into parts of VA. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Yeah sorry about that... "for VA". Nah, for everyone. It was a much better look than 12z and 18z and what we really needed was just for it to stop trending in the wrong direction. I mean I guess the ice isn't a look everyone wants but just as far as having a winter storm we were another couple NAM warmups away from this being all rain outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: I dug it out - see our own Isohume's comments here - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/43038-saturation-with-respect-to-ice/?do=findComment&comment=2835083 Then I can't explain why it would show "sleet and snow" with that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I HOPE the above Images give folks some Hope, I assume this is the "onset" of the Storm.. 72 Hours out.. I tried to get All the Relevant Images.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 00NAM 850's improved around my area vs the 18NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Maybe V3 is so advanced that we just cant comprehend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Check out @RaleighWx’s Tweet: Check out @RaleighWx’s Tweet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I think we can all agree that the extended ranges of the NAM are suspect and that it’s snow map on TT is ridiculous. But there is going to be warming aloft here. And it will be warmer and more extensive than the global scare showing. For many in central NC, assuming we don’t have a convection moisture robbing situation (which is possible), there is going to be a lot of sleet and ZR, even back into the Triad and into parts of VA. Warm nose will almost definitely be more extensive than on global models. But I’d also say with the NAM now trending better with high placement and a little more cold that especially for areas further west it may not yet have a complete handle on exactly how the CAD is going to play out. So I think there’s going to be some give and take as we move forward on NAM runs, warm nose is absolutely going to rob some places while others may improve if the wedge keeps showing up better on further runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Then I can't explain why it would show "sleet and snow" with that sounding. Absolutely fascinating and quite honestly, I learned something valuable. Made the last 5 days of sleep deprivation and storm prep all worth it! Belated thanks Isohume! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Namnest out to 12Z (60hours).. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, SENC said: Nannest out to 12Z (60hours).. I just dont see it.. something is wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 ICON south this run and coming in line with other models. A consensus is building folks. Get prepared, stay safe, and enjoy! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 freezing rain profile.. out to 57, ,, I'm just trying help ya'll folks out here.. Honestly.. use these in addition to the Maps posted above.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 RGEM through 72 keeps 850 below freezing whole time for triad. For what its worth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, NCSNOW said: RGEM through 72 keeps 850 below freezing whole time for triad. For what uts worrh Over to hickory as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I think we can all agree that the extended ranges of the NAM are suspect and that it’s snow map on TT is ridiculous. But there is going to be warming aloft here. And it will be warmer and more extensive than the globals are showing. For many in central NC, assuming we don’t have a convection moisture robbing situation (which is possible), there is going to be a lot of sleet and ZR, even back into the Triad and into parts of VA. I don't think the warming aloft will be as bad as you think. I think we will get a good thump of snow like Allan said, 4 to 6 inches, before getting some ice on top of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations. Anybody confirm? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, MillerA said: Over to hickory as well? Yes. Fact state line east down 74 corridor into sandhills, then fluctuates up n down between there and south of hwy 64 by a good bit. Hard to watch models on a phone, atleast for us old folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, tarheelwx said: I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations. Anybody confirm? TW It has done quite well in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM (freezing precip).. Out to hour 84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations. Anybody confirm? TW It has a bias to be too cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: It has done quite well in the past. Agreed, primary go to when the NAM looks off, difference usually verifies somewhere in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: It has done quite well in the past. It goes out to 72 hrs, so becoming usefull now and need to monitor here on in. Laptop at work and aggetating looping stuff on phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations. Anybody confirm? TW Seems to maybe do better in the MA and points north? It has done well here too but took it on the chin from the NAM in a couple recent events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Critical thickness out to Hour 84.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations. Anybody confirm? TW I can't speak for the temp profile but it is my understanding that the RGEM is good with PTYPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I don't think the warming aloft will be as bad as you think. I think we will get a good thump of snow like Allan said, 4 to 6 inches, before getting some ice on top of it. Ok good deal. Why do you think there won’t be much warming aloft? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 If the nam verefies, ill have several inches of snow packed with an inch of sleet, with another 1 to 2 inches snow on top. Yard will be like concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS has a finger of precip earlier at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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