kvegas-wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:40 AM, wncsnow said: Expand Ouch. NAM says I can use a shovel instead of a blower after all. About a third of the FV3 total! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:41 AM, wncsnow said: Freezing rain Expand I love that my county in the southern foothills has almost no freezing rain. lol. strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:40 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Because you don't have complete saturation in the dendric growth zone. Expand That looks like plenty of RH in the DGZ there IMO. Saturation with respect to ice is 80% RH...saturation with respect to liquid is 100% RH....believe that's how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:41 AM, wncsnow said: Freezing rain Expand Wow! That’s approaching Dec. 2002 type of Ice Storm. All in all, this run was colder than the 18z. More snow in the Piedmont this run. Verbatim the Triad got 2-3” Kuchera on the 18z Run, on the 00z run the Triad got 5-6” of snow before the switch. So maybe slowly the NAM is begining to adjust cooler. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:44 AM, Queencitywx said: ...you’ve somehow missed the Euro, FV3 GFS, The Canadian, The ICON and the UKMET? Expand Based on past systems, I'm giving preference to short/medium range models. I think the NAM has a much better grasp, like it did with January 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:46 AM, strongwxnc said: I love that my county in the southern foothills has almost no freezing rain. lol. strange Expand All sleet mostly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Verbatim, the NAM is a 6-7" snow for the Triad with about an inch of sleet on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:46 AM, griteater said: That looks like plenty of RH in the DGZ there IMO. Saturation with respect to ice is 80% RH...saturation with respect to liquid is 100% RH....believe that's how it goes. Expand Well, that's the only way you can get sleet with that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:48 AM, PackGrad05 said: Based on past systems, I'm giving preference to short/medium range models. I think the NAM has a much better grasp, like it did with January 2017. Expand I can respect that but we’re still out of the NAM wheelhouse, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Hi Res Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:49 AM, wncsnow said: All sleet mostly Expand And lots of it after a bump of snow (based on this run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:49 AM, wncsnow said: Hi Res Nam Expand Kinda looks like the ICON has looked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Hi Res Nam totals at 60.. Its warmer than Nam 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:44 AM, Queencitywx said: ...you’ve somehow missed the Euro, FV3 GFS, The Canadian, The ICON and the UKMET? Expand They aren't hi-res models that usually do well sniffing out mid-level warming. I'll weigh the NAM heavily with this one. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:48 AM, PackGrad05 said: Based on past systems, I'm giving preference to short/medium range models. I think the NAM has a much better grasp, like it did with January 2017. Expand With all due respect (and I lived and died on that 1/2017 storm) we still aren't in the NAM wheelhouse yet. That said this one does have that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:49 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Well, that's the only way you can get sleet with that sounding. Expand It looks wrong to me, plus you need ice nuclei for sleet just like you do snow (so you need saturation in DGZ for both)...that's my understanding (i.e. sleet has to come from melted snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:51 AM, CaryWx said: With all due respect (and I lived and died on that 1/2017 storm) we still aren't in the NAM wheelhouse yet. That said this one does have that look. Expand Indeed... Been NAM'd many a storms that were outside 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:51 AM, wncsnow said: Hi Res Nam totals at 60.. Its warmer than Nam Expand Wetter and colder than 18Z for sure. The trend is our friend so far in the 0Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:51 AM, WidreMann said: They aren't hi-res models that usually do well sniffing out mid-level warming. I'll weigh the NAM heavily with this one. Expand The long range NAM? You’re going to die on a hill with the long range NAM? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Why is the NAM so far north? All the other models are south to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The NAM is definitely a good start to the 0z Suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM does look realistic. That said, I am still taking a big snow for the Triad, west, as my final prediction. Largest accumulation in Asheville and points to the NE. GFS V3 has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:55 AM, BornAgain13 said: The NAM is definitely a good start to the 0z Suite. Expand you should maybe add "for VA" on the end 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:52 AM, griteater said: It looks wrong to me, plus you need ice nuclei for sleet just like you do snow (so you need saturation in DGZ for both)...that's my understanding Expand Nope, not the same. Snow requires saturation in the -12C through -17C layer. Sleet does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 If you extrapolate the HiRes Nam its a big sleet and ice storm for central NC after snow. Probably 6 to 8 of snow in GSO to HKY north. Over a foot in Boone to Roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:56 AM, wncsnow said: If you extrapolate the HiRes Nam its a big sleet and ice storm for central NC after snow. Probably 6 to 8 of snow in GSO to HKY north. Over a foot in Boone to Roanoke Expand I agree, I think it looks very ICON like. It won’t take a large shift for this to look GFS like either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Alan Huffman tweeted about the NAM. Iciest of the models and if it continues, he may have to change his call map to add more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:56 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Nope, not the same. Snow requires saturation in the -12C through -17C layer. Sleet does not. Expand I dug it out - see our own Isohume's comments here - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/43038-saturation-with-respect-to-ice/?do=findComment&comment=2835083 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/7/2018 at 2:56 AM, griteater said: you should maybe add "for VA" on the end Expand Yeah sorry about that... "for VA". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This will be a 2-part post Image heavy.. I hope thishelps.. 18Z GFSFV# run(ing).. Says 84% complete) I took it out to Hour 72 in all images.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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