kvegas-wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Ouch. NAM says I can use a shovel instead of a blower after all. About a third of the FV3 total! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Freezing rain I love that my county in the southern foothills has almost no freezing rain. lol. strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Because you don't have complete saturation in the dendric growth zone. That looks like plenty of RH in the DGZ there IMO. Saturation with respect to ice is 80% RH...saturation with respect to liquid is 100% RH....believe that's how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Freezing rain Wow! That’s approaching Dec. 2002 type of Ice Storm. All in all, this run was colder than the 18z. More snow in the Piedmont this run. Verbatim the Triad got 2-3” Kuchera on the 18z Run, on the 00z run the Triad got 5-6” of snow before the switch. So maybe slowly the NAM is begining to adjust cooler. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: ...you’ve somehow missed the Euro, FV3 GFS, The Canadian, The ICON and the UKMET? Based on past systems, I'm giving preference to short/medium range models. I think the NAM has a much better grasp, like it did with January 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: I love that my county in the southern foothills has almost no freezing rain. lol. strange All sleet mostly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Verbatim, the NAM is a 6-7" snow for the Triad with about an inch of sleet on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: That looks like plenty of RH in the DGZ there IMO. Saturation with respect to ice is 80% RH...saturation with respect to liquid is 100% RH....believe that's how it goes. Well, that's the only way you can get sleet with that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Based on past systems, I'm giving preference to short/medium range models. I think the NAM has a much better grasp, like it did with January 2017. I can respect that but we’re still out of the NAM wheelhouse, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Hi Res Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: All sleet mostly And lots of it after a bump of snow (based on this run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Hi Res Nam Kinda looks like the ICON has looked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Hi Res Nam totals at 60.. Its warmer than Nam 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: ...you’ve somehow missed the Euro, FV3 GFS, The Canadian, The ICON and the UKMET? They aren't hi-res models that usually do well sniffing out mid-level warming. I'll weigh the NAM heavily with this one. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Based on past systems, I'm giving preference to short/medium range models. I think the NAM has a much better grasp, like it did with January 2017. With all due respect (and I lived and died on that 1/2017 storm) we still aren't in the NAM wheelhouse yet. That said this one does have that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Well, that's the only way you can get sleet with that sounding. It looks wrong to me, plus you need ice nuclei for sleet just like you do snow (so you need saturation in DGZ for both)...that's my understanding (i.e. sleet has to come from melted snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: With all due respect (and I lived and died on that 1/2017 storm) we still aren't in the NAM wheelhouse yet. That said this one does have that look. Indeed... Been NAM'd many a storms that were outside 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res Nam totals at 60.. Its warmer than Nam Wetter and colder than 18Z for sure. The trend is our friend so far in the 0Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: They aren't hi-res models that usually do well sniffing out mid-level warming. I'll weigh the NAM heavily with this one. The long range NAM? You’re going to die on a hill with the long range NAM? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Why is the NAM so far north? All the other models are south to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The NAM is definitely a good start to the 0z Suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM does look realistic. That said, I am still taking a big snow for the Triad, west, as my final prediction. Largest accumulation in Asheville and points to the NE. GFS V3 has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: The NAM is definitely a good start to the 0z Suite. you should maybe add "for VA" on the end 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: It looks wrong to me, plus you need ice nuclei for sleet just like you do snow (so you need saturation in DGZ for both)...that's my understanding Nope, not the same. Snow requires saturation in the -12C through -17C layer. Sleet does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 If you extrapolate the HiRes Nam its a big sleet and ice storm for central NC after snow. Probably 6 to 8 of snow in GSO to HKY north. Over a foot in Boone to Roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: If you extrapolate the HiRes Nam its a big sleet and ice storm for central NC after snow. Probably 6 to 8 of snow in GSO to HKY north. Over a foot in Boone to Roanoke I agree, I think it looks very ICON like. It won’t take a large shift for this to look GFS like either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Alan Huffman tweeted about the NAM. Iciest of the models and if it continues, he may have to change his call map to add more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Nope, not the same. Snow requires saturation in the -12C through -17C layer. Sleet does not. I dug it out - see our own Isohume's comments here - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/43038-saturation-with-respect-to-ice/?do=findComment&comment=2835083 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, griteater said: you should maybe add "for VA" on the end Yeah sorry about that... "for VA". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This will be a 2-part post Image heavy.. I hope thishelps.. 18Z GFSFV# run(ing).. Says 84% complete) I took it out to Hour 72 in all images.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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