WxKnurd Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: SREF snow mean for CLT remained at about 4.5” Looks like it actually ticked up about .4", from 4.21" and plumes done snowing at 15 compared to 4.61" and some plumes still snowing. HKY went from 11.98" to 9.73" but again, more plumes showing it still showing it snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, SENC said: I read the Whole Blog.. Nice thinking Outside the Box, considering the "upstream" ramifactions on Our Local Weather.. Thoughts on this @griteater?? Guy has solid stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Even at Danville the mean is only a little over 4.. not good signs for the upcoming NAM.. Or you look at Charlotte where the 18Z NAM had zero inches but the 21z SREF had 4.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Greg Fishel doing a live stream now and I completely agree with him. Temperatures just aren't great for Wake. Lots of rain. Wet or slushy roads at times, not icy. I'd be surprised at more than 1" in Wake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: Or you look at Charlotte where the 18Z NAM had zero inches but the 21z SREF had 4.5. Hopefully it reverses it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 With the SREF mean at GSO, about half next to nothing. Several were up in the 8-20" range, but the mean was skewed low because of the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: With the SREF mean at GSO, about half next to nothing. Several were up in the 8-20" range, but the mean was skewed low because of the others. I noticed that at TDF. There were less members with low numbers but it drug the number down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The SREF is an awful model. Really Useless. Worse than useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Hopefully it reverses it Here’s hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Don't know if it will matter, but at hour 30 the surface low is well north of previous runs in E TX. Edit: it adjusts south in the next frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, olafminesaw said: The SREF is an awful model. Really Useless. Worse than useless. Definitely won’t disagree with you there but it’s useful in this sense because you can see the NAM is pretty much arguing with it’s own ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, olafminesaw said: The SREF is an awful model. Really Useless. Worse than useless. I gave up on it after Feb '14. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Greg Fishel doing a live stream now and I completely agree with him. Temperatures just aren't great for Wake. Lots of rain. Wet or slushy roads at times, not icy. I'd be surprised at more than 1" in Wake. Yes, I agree. We'll see some snow at the beginning but think we will switch to rain at some point. Once I saw the warm nose, I knew it was the kiss of death. Hopefully I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: Don't know if it will matter, but at hour 30 the surface low is well north of previous runs in E TX. I think it's just the precip shield. The low itself is now slightly south at 36 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Wow said: I gave up on it after Feb '14. That one bust in 2015 is where I finally threw my hands up. Mean of 14 inches 12 hours before a storm my ass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 For the city of Charlotte right now, I would go with 1-3 inches of snow/sleet/slop, then up to an inch of snow at the end via slow to exit snow showers on the backside. Tough forecast though given what I think will be hefty precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, griteater said: For the city of Charlotte right now, I would go with 1-3 inches of snow/sleet/slop, then up to an inch of snow at the end via slow to exit snow showers on the backside. Tough forecast though given what I think will be hefty precip totals. I can’t even imagine. That front end thump does well and it blows the whole thing. If the thump underperforms, you might not even get that. That isn’t even to mention potential for damaging ZR in SE CLT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The NAM is really aggressive with the virga on Saturday. Seems earlier than before...maybe it will help moisten the column earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM comes back to momma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 So you’re saying there is a chance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, mckinnonwg said: So you’re saying there is a chance.... I think I see some green over my house...if I squint really hard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: I think I see some green over my house...if I squint really hard. I did the best I could with my phone app hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM could be impressive.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM is definitely way colder a than 850 at least at hr 45. Let’s see how it goes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Lol at The NAM.. It is having so much trouble saturating the column in NC piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Poor NAM. It doesn’t know what it wants to do anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The NAM reaches full saturation on the sounding in the Triad by 9Z Sunday, a full three hours earlier. Its an all snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 much better run at 57. clt close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Oy. Fish saying one thing. NWS saying another. Mets on the net saying something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM actually much closer to the FV3.. and colder than 12z. Actually has a stronger CAD signature 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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