Snow dog Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: NAM is a nasty ice storm for many Upstate SC folks better get the generators gassed up! I cant even imagine how many nights we will be without power if this verifies. Cold rain would be MUCH better than that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 RAH with the winter storm watch west of Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Inverted banana high shield still firmly in place on Nam at 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: That map is highly inaccurate with all of the sleet and ZR included Even if it isn't all snow, that is still a big storm regardless with snow and ice mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM Kuchera is underwhelming to say the least: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Mean snowfall for CLT on the SREF this run is basically unchanged, around 4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Snow Ouch... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Solak said: RAH just wrote a book! .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM Thursday... ...A significant winter storm is expected Sat night through Mon; a winter storm watch is being issued for the NW Piedmont... Overview for Sat-Mon: A significant wintertime storm for NC is growing more likely with every model run. Differences among the models regarding timing, track, precip amounts, and the vertical thermal structure and advection patterns persist, which makes it challenging to pinpoint the details, but the models are coming into better agreement now. It's very likely that parts of central NC, primarily N and W of the Triangle, will see several inches of snow, at least, along with some icing. Lesser (but still impactful) accumulations of ice and snow are expected at some point of the event over all but the far SE. Or as the rest of us call it, the Triad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: They're showing more for Salisbury than atop Mt. Mitchell. I'm sorry, but there is no on this earth that I am going to buy into that map right now. Oh I agree, just pointing out that the expected map makes no sense when you factor in all the other product maps they put out with it. And that’s the only reasoning I could think of, which makes sense when you look at the disco about QPF and sleet SW of Asheville. Seems like their reasoning is banks on snow being rate driven given the thermal profile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18z NAM puts down about a Foot IMBY in Dry Fork, VA. Foot and a Half in SW VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The NAM is a raging sleetstorm for many with the big warm nose. Thats why the kuchera maps look so much different than the one brick posted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 RAH did mention the possibility of snowfall totals near one foot in the Triad. So there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 20 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Cutting totals way back From Historic to this? There was more snow on the ground a couple nights ago in some areas than this..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GSP is discounting the NAM’s thermal profiles: “The NAM is substantially warmer with temps aloft thanany of the global models we have at our disposal. For now the NAMprofiles are being discounted and not used in the fcst process,not only due to the consensus in the other guidance, but to helpmaintain better forecast continuity” Also, they are thinking the mountains are going to see a larger percentage of the precip fall as sleet: “"Snow" totals have declined bya few inches over the northern GA/SC zones and in the more westernNC mtns, as more of the QPF is now expected to fall as sleet.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NAM is a nasty ice storm for many ATL continues to survive by a nose. AHN looks in trouble though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Very reactionary from GSP. I don't know why they even issue those this far out. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The NAM is a raging sleetstorm for many with the big warm nose. Thats why the kuchera maps look so much different than the one brick posted.. Once that warm nose makes an appearance for the RDU area, I've learned to count on it. It's usually worse than modeled. I'm not saying that's the case for this storm but I've found that mostly true for past storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, HKY_WX said: Very reactionary from GSP. I don't know why they even issue those this far out. It almost seems like the current shift leader said "I am yanking the towel out from under the other shift". Kinda weird how they went from one extreme to another. There is still enough time for changes with the model runs. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Blacksburgs version 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernVAwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Blacksburgs version In my opinion a very good map. Has amounts that would have significant impacts with wiggle room to go up or down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well Chris Justus definitely isn't agreeing with GSP on his live video right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said: Yeah, its got .82" of freezing rain at RDU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Lol a winter storm watch is up for Mooresville area for 3-11" that's a helluva spread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 CAE is saying that there's not even a chance for ice. Wouldn't have expected that for Winnsboro and the north midlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Yeah, its got .82" of freezing rain at RDU. So, either that much freezing rain, 8 inches of snow, or 4 inches of snow and .40 of freezing rain is going to be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Well Chris Justus definitely isn't agreeing with GSP on his live video right now. Neither is Allen Huffman. GSP went too aggressive this morning then went the other way this afternoon to lower expectations. But if you look at there high end snow map to low end snow map, see below, you can see they are covering everything and just went super conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12Z GFSFV3 (Maps) Hours 24 hour(s) accumulation precip vs AT Hour 75 forecast (Hope this helps).. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: So, either that much freezing rain, 8 inches of snow, or 4 inches of snow and .40 of freezing rain is going to be a big deal. Anything greater that .5" can get real bad. Again it only take .25" to warrant a Winter Storm criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 36 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Dang, that’s not good. Wonder what they saw? Weaker high? Makes sense to me, all models showing mostly a mix to ice in western upstate; makes for lower totals. Thick enough cold air not making it far enough SW, especially with slightly lower high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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