BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 UKMET is really cold at the surface. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, pbrown85 said: Does anyone have any theories as to why the GFS FV3 gives so much more with it's winter output than the other models so far? It's still in beta stage and likely being tweaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 To be . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: FV3 seems to really want to make US 74 the cut off, as per usual Sounds about right man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Out of everything I've seen so far on the 12z Data, what concerns me the most is the reduction in the GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, pbrown85 said: Does anyone have any theories as to why the GFS FV3 gives so much more with it's winter output than the other models so far? It’s powered by the tears of snow weenies - gotta stock up before it goes live in January. A marvel of modern engineering, really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Out of everything I've seen so far on the 12z Data, what concerns me the most is the reduction in the GEFS Losing half an inch of QPF will do that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 To be fair in terms of QPF the fv3 more closely matches the ukmet and cmc on the 12z dataThe eps at 0z had 2 inches of QPF all the way into northern foothills. So at this time the consensus is for more QPF than gfs/nam that could change but as of now no trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The total qpf went down quite a bit on the GEFS. That's why the snow mean went down. 06z vs. 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Out of everything I've seen so far on the 12z Data, what concerns me the most is the reduction in the GEFS We still end up with like 1.50-1.75” nothing to be pissed about. Even if we got an inch we’d still be looking at close to a foot. We’ll have winter storm watches as well with this afternoons package guaranteed. Look at the positives here. FV3, Canadian and the GEFS moved the low closer to the SC coast this run. Qpf shield will respond for us. All is trending well right now imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Losing half an inch of QPF will do that But when I said last night there were trends for less QPF in western sections everyone jumped on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Out of everything I've seen so far on the 12z Data, what concerns me the most is the reduction in the GEFS I wouldn't use ensembles to nail down QPF specifics. They're more for seeing track shifts and giving a general idea of where the jackpot will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: The total qpf went down quite a bit on the GEFS. That's why the snow mean went down. 06z vs. 12z Going through the individual members most aren't that bad mainly some very minimal reductions in qpf. But there are a few really low outliers that may be skewing the means a bit too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 If only the 12z Euro will look like the UKMET! We will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well, it's early in the run, but at 24 hours, Euro showing less cold air intrusion somewhat similar to 12z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I would say the NAM usually does a good job with mid-level thermals with these systems, so there's a chance it's on to something. We've all been burned by those warm noses many times... Of course, it's pretty far out still to really trust the NAM, but closer in it will be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: Well, it's early in the run, but at 24 hours, Euro showing less cold air intrusion somewhat similar to 12z NAM. 850 temps are at or colder however 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: I would say the NAM usually does a good job with mid-level thermals with these systems, there's a chance it's on to something. We've all been burned by those warm noses many times... I would agree but the big reason for the differences isn't really because of a warm nose from the south. It's because the initial air mass is significantly warmer because of the high placement and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Wow said: 850 temps are at or colder however And looks better at 48 hours as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 That cold HP push looks stout to me, and it is a large scale feature. I think the wedge will be there for at least a good portion of the favored areas, and far out east as well. Then it will just depend on how far north the slp and ull go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Looks like the Euro is going to be similar to UKMet and FV3, the big 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well, at 72 hours I guess I would call it similar to yesterday's 12z run. 850 temps are pretty close (a little lower in Upstate/extreme NE GA, a little higher east of Charlotte). Surface low is ENE of yesterday's 12z position, but the low placements have been wonky with the transfer to hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Looks like the Euro is going to be similar to UKMet and FV3, the big 3 I suppose you can add the 12z Canadian to that list as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Its colder at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The s/w is sharper and more negatively tilted than the FV3 at 72 hours. Just based off of 500mb look QPF shouldn’t be low here. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 euro still shows the front end snow with the snow line down into upper sc. gives clt 4-5" or so before a changeover. very similar to 00z. euro has been the furthest south with that snow line vs the gfs/nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Hr96... Holy moly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Euro appears to be a crush job for western NC more closely matches FV3 UK and CMC for sure. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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