Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well, maybe the models are doing a 180 today. Only waited about 60 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Snow maps starting to look more realistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Brad P, new video is up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Snow maps starting to look more realistic Still 5 to 8 for Wake. I'd gladly take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS is warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Snow maps starting to look more realistic I wouldn't focus to much on that... the Ensembles have been different from the OP so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 @AsheCounty48 Canadian is a much bigger beast for us and has the low tucked closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: surprised no one else is mentioning the Canadian, bombing run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 One last image from the Canadian, this is the deform band on Monday. Overall a really good run for folks along I85 north of Charlotte up to the Triad and parts of the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Forecast 6-10 for the Triad with mixing and that should give plenty of flexibility. Northern foothills/mtns 10-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I will take that GFS run, gladly so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: I will take that GFS run, gladly so. Seriously, for a storm so early in December, that is huge. That would be my snowfall average for winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: GFS is warmer. Dude...no offense but you're as predictable as the day is long. We are willing to concede that you are on record poo-pooing this entire event for everyone who is in it while you only dream of snow in Wilmington. 12 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The Canadian 0z vs 12. Maybe some consistency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: Dude...no offense but you're as predictable as the day is long. We are willing to concede that you are on record poo-pooing this entire event for everyone who is in it while you only dream of snow in Wilmington. Some people want to see the world burn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: The Canadian 0z vs 12. Maybe some consistency? Nice jump in totals from Raleigh to the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I will take that GFS run, gladly so. I'll take the Canadian as well; especially with that back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Does anyone have any maps to post for the latest GFS? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Poimen said: Dude...no offense but you're as predictable as the day is long. We are willing to concede that you are on record poo-pooing this entire event for everyone who is in it while you only dream of snow in Wilmington. I grew up in Fayetteville. I have seen my share of good snow. I only point out what the models are doing. You know the truth. Sorry if that crushes your dreams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z FV3 has much more QPF the current gfs. Storm totals nearing 2 inches all the way to VA border more in line with other globals . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The Canadian 0z vs 12. Maybe some consistency? For Charlotte and RDU folks, it was a shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Definitely seem to be trends taking snow out of the forecast for Charlotte to RDU. We were borderline anyways. Could tack back in with future (and other) model runs but we are seeing this over a couple 12z models now. Canadian coming in stronger though towards NC overall so there is that I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 If my memory serves correctly, I believe the Canadian has a decent score with CAD events AND ULL's?? I can remember more than a couple of times the Canadian verifying on backend snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Believe it or not, there is far more to meteorology than model hugging. Some would do well to bone up on the basics instead of blurting out their IMBY reaction to the latest model run. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Snow maps starting to look more realistic Canada said hold up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Definitely seem to be trends taking snow out of the forecast for Charlotte to RDU. We were borderline anyways. Could tack back in with future (and other) model runs but we are seeing this over a couple 12z models now. Canadian coming in stronger though towards NC overall so there is that I guess. GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky. I sure hope so. (we've said this way too many times but) This next run is huge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Meteorology is different than modelology. Models can say one thing, but looking at the actual pattern and understanding what can actually happen is why meteorologists have their job. Surface temps as well as temperatures aloft have been suspect to me for RDU the entire week. A clown map should be used to see where the heaviest snow will fall, while ignoring amounts. To me, central NC may see some snow, but will mostly be a cold rain with maybe some sleet pellets mixed in at times. I would be SHOCKED for anyone in Wake to see more than 1 inch of snow on the ground, and you may want to snap a photo of it if it happens because the rain after will wash it away. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, BFF said: Believe it or not, there is far more to meteorology than model hugging. Some would do well to bone up on the basics instead of blurting out their IMBY reaction to the latest model run. or panicking when one model shows a negative solution. Some people irrationally use storm busts too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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