Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Here's the low end. Wow, went all in for CLT! 3 for AVL? Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The NAM doesnt even agree with it's own ensemble members yall. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Iceagewhereartthou said: Here's the low end. Wow, went all in for CLT! 3 for AVL? Huh? CAD has a tough time making it into Asheville often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, eyewall said: That is going to be fun to have to walk down. Saw that this morning when I woke up....first thought was that some intern hit the send button accidentally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 At hour 48 on the 12z, the past couple of runs for the same time frame have been trending weaker for the slp, going from 1006 mb to 1009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 LP is slightly NW compared to 6z at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 SREF has a mean snowfall of just about 5" in Charlotte by 7PM Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, wxduncan said: The totals towards CLT and south might be knocked down a bit. But I-40 west(Hickory,Morganton,Lenoir,Mtns) look just fine even Brad P. said totals could be underdone for those areas. As usual CLT, is dangerously close to the cutoff line...and we know how that usually goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z GFS oh-so-slightly warmer at 850 level at NC/SC border through 54 -- but margin of error stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 HP looks it bit stronger for suppression on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The NAM doesnt even agree with it's own ensemble members yall. What do the ensembles look like Queen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 And then at 60, it's colder than 6z run and the surface low is in a nice spot just offshore of Pensacola. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Oh Canada: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 850 temps go lower at hr69 then previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 At 66 it looks like CAD is a little more pronounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z GFS a trending back stronger with the CAD high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Really, there are fine details, but this is about as consistent as a model run can be vs. its prior run, esp. given complex pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS not looking too bad for the Piedmont Triad area at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Getting ready to see the Nam 84 hr GEE Club catch some egg in the face lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 At 72, low is a good bit south in Florida, 850s hanging steady at NC/SC line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: Really, there are fine details, but this is about as consistent as a model run can be vs. its prior run, esp. given complex pattern. Agree.. the transition of temps through the column as CAD builds and precip advances isn't going to get shaken out until it's nearly go time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Precip shield looks ever so slightly more to the north at hr78 with the LP not as pronounced and hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 First real change vs. 6z comes at 84 hours where the low being closer to the coast, it would appears, causes WAA to scour out the wedge faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z Canadian is a monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, beanskip said: First real change vs. 6z comes at 84 hours where the low being closer to the coast, it would appears, causes WAA to scour out the wedge faster. Then it shoots the LP off into the Atlantic. Going to be lower QPF overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Freezing rain showing up much further north now into the triad on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wow said: Agree.. the transition of temps through the column as CAD builds and precip advances isn't going to get shaken out until it's nearly go time Definitely. Normally we are hoping for a 200 mile NW shift to get in the game. This time we are consistently in it but the smallest details will make all the difference which are the hardest for models to nail down. Going to be a nail biter for a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Overall observation is the LP exits faster on this run not leaving much QPF behind. Quicker exit with nowhere to go but EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 9Z SREF Mean is double what falls at RUQ on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 kuchera snow map with 1-2" for clt. trace down to rock hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now