Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

If it can snow 12” in early December down here then you guys should not worry about early December.  Sun angle is low and ground temps mean jack when you get tons of snow.  

 

The wife has wanted to see Asheville for a long time.  Looks like I need to book a room and take her up.  Of course not telling her about the snowstorm.  She hates snow. Lmao

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Precip type on 12Z looks suspicious. 850s cold enough in WNC for snow during entire event. 

@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment I was thinking the very same thing. I'm just east of you in Morganton area and thought it looked like a all snow profile. What gives? Do we toss the run and you still think GSP forecast for our 2 county's is on par still?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't cliff dive just yet, as the NAM isn't in its better range quite yet 48hrs in.

 

Bad News: That said, it definitely displays what I've been saying for a few days. We're in early December, this is a STJ driven system (85% of it), and this is not a Miller A system. This will have some significant icing involved for some folks (IP/ZR). Those 24 inch totals were never viable outside of the NW mountains.

 

Good News: I think concerns about precip totals are totally unfounded, as this a large amplitude wave with strong STJ connections down to the equatorial regions. There will be no shortage of QPF (2 to 3 inch totals) are likely over a large swath of the state. How much of that is Snow/Ice/Rain is the question.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

If it can snow 12” in early December down here then you guys should not worry about early December.  Sun angle is low and ground temps mean jack when you get tons of snow.  

 

Last year in early December in NC, from Raleigh south and east got a miserable cold rain with a brief flurry at the end. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mean the Triad had a couple years recently in which we had more inches of sleet than snow on the season. I'd never count out a raging sleet storm, especially in a CAD event. Just historically in these very mixed events we (again, piedmont triad) usually seem to end up with snow at the beginning and end, something like 4-8", and then a bunch of crap in the middle. The sum total of the guidance so far seems (to me at least) to fit with that general narrative.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

The NAM just fired a warm nose warning shot,..as you all know. But I wonder since we're dealing with dynamical cooling if the NAM's lack of qpf played a role in that outcome? Will want to see how the NAM trends in these departments going forward. 

That is exactly my hypothesis. If you look at the 3K, at Hour 60, you see the snow line advancing because there's precip. On the regular NAM, you dont have anything that triggers dynamic cooling until we knew we'd start mixing anyway.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

nearly all sleet per 12z nam.

prec.png

I'm going to wait for the other models today to run before I say that's the trend, all/more sleet in CLT.  Overnight runs were great for CLT.  EURO and UKMET.  I'm certainly not going to give up yet based on the long range NAM.  Saturday morning if it's still saying that, then yes. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, sarcean said:

I'm sure it could of been posted but can't believe GSP has put out these amounts already

 

KdTWwDd.png

 

I'm surprised by this as well.  All global guidance essentially shows this, except the NAM.  But usually they creep the numbers up closer to the storm.  I don't know, this has the makings of a huge bust, but I hope not.  Forget you NAM!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, sarcean said:

I'm sure it could of been posted but can't believe GSP has put out these amounts already

 

KdTWwDd.png

 

The totals towards CLT and south might be knocked down a bit. But I-40 west(Hickory,Morganton,Lenoir,Mtns) look just fine even Brad P. said totals could be underdone for those areas. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Are we sure that's not their "high end" map? They used to put out 3 different ones; one for low end totals, one for high end, and one for the middle road (and most likely).

That one says expected so I’d guess no. Typically their high end product will have a different title at the top.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Are we sure that's not their "high end" map? They used to put out 3 different ones; one for low end totals, one for high end, and one for the middle road (and most likely).

nope that is there expected

 

this is there "high end map"

Ff6osxT.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

The totals towards CLT and south might be knocked down a bit. But I-40 west(Hickory,Morganton,Lenoir,Mtns) look just fine even Brad P. said totals could be underdone for those areas. 

I'm in Greensboro but plan to go to Boone or Banner Elk Sat night if the Triad somehow busts. I'm confident I'll find a monster of a storm past a certain elevation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...