December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[kvegas-wx]

As models like the RGEM and HRRR enter the discussion this weekend, we should have models to look at every couple hours or so tomorrow and Saturday.  Does anyone have an old post, or maybe a current summary available that lists the model run times for all models?

[ajr]

5 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

I think tonight's and tomorrow mornings runs will be key here. Pieces finally starting to get sampled.

As others have mentioned most data (someone else said “99%”) fed into models are from satellites.

[lilj4425]

Warm nose, soil temps, lack of qpf due to convection along the coast...which one will ruin my weekend?  

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

If you keep saying the Euro ticks south each time you do a PBP, it's going to tick all the snow down into Florida lol

We need a more expansive precip shield on the north side of the storm. Out totals are dropped from 18 to 12 to under 8 now on the Euro..

[CADEffect]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

As models like the RGEM and HRRR enter the discussion this weekend, we should have models to look at every couple hours or so tomorrow and Saturday.  Does anyone have an old post, or maybe a current summary available that lists the model run times for all models?

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=10865

 

 

[BullCityWx]

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

06z Euro ticked south again at 500mb.  Classic slider look.  And it's bringing the backside wave in better as well.  The thing I can't shake here are the mid level temperatures.  One would argue that the models will correct as we get closer and show more cooling on the NW side of the 850mb low track as the cooling from strong ascent offsets warm advection...that's normally how it works...but which one wins the battle, the strong dynamics and cooling that are almost certain to be there, vs. the marginal cold pre-storm airmass.

On the topic of the mid-level drying in the soundings, if you look at relative humidity charts at the 500-600mb levels, you can see the drying (dry slot) working in, but it's obviously after a strong thump on the front side of the storm (think heavy rates).  I will also say that the precip is almost certain to be expanded farther north than what the current QPF shows, especially given how this is going to get wound up into a comma head....so, still looks good to me in SW VA for example.

I think the most critical thing for places like Charlotte, Raleigh, Greenville will be how much do you get out of the front end thump? That's where you're going to see the best snow growth. Once we get to 0z Monday, it seems like the soundings either dry out in that region or slightly go above freezing. 

I think what people dont remember about 1/1988, most of the snow fell in that event at the very beginning. The end was sleet and freezing rain. I could see a situation like that.

[beanskip]

Dewpoints much less impressive on 12z NAM vs. 6Z in North Georgia -- 3-4F increase. 

[CADEffect]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Warm nose, soil temps, lack of qpf due to convection along the coast...which one will ruin my weekend?  

Chris justice giving totals three days out

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Warm nose, soil temps, lack of qpf due to convection along the coast...which one will ruin my weekend?  

If you're married and/or have kids, I'd bank on one of those. 

[griteater]

Just now, wncsnow said:

We need a more expansive precip shield on the north side of the storm. Out totals are dropped from 18 to 12 to under 8 now on the Euro..

IMO you are looking good there from a precip standpoint...the models don't show the QPF now, but they will over time, IMO

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

We need a more expansive precip shield on the north side of the storm. Out totals are dropped from 18 to 12 to under 8 now on the Euro..

Yeah, hopefully it will nudge back north some 

[wncsnow]

12Z Nam is already looking more suppressed out to 42..

[AirNelson39]

Warm nose, soil temps, lack of qpf due to convection along the coast...which one will ruin my weekend?  

Being in timeout on the weather forums.

[nchighcountrywx]

Glanced at 6z GFS Buffkit

Hickory snow is way down from 20"+ yesterday to 6" today

Winston is at 13"

RDU at 0

CLT at 4

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=khky

 

 

[beanskip]

While DP's are less impressive, the 850 0c line is a bit further south at 42 hours -- NAM looks more suppressed overall. 

EDIT: That was at 39 hours, not 42.

At 42, the ground gain is given back and it's very close to 6z run.

[strongwxnc]

41 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

The mix line will be closer to hwy 64 imho guna be a sleetfest for elevations below 2500 feet.

Between 64 and 74 will be a battle ground. However, this is normal. 

29 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

I guess well see but im along the escapement and im worried about mixing if i was south of 40 id be buying a generator....

Im in central Rutherford so just off the escapement. Im sounding continue to bump the nose in around HR 90.. But the columns looks good. 

Such a great system to track. Enjoy it folks!

[kvegas-wx]

8 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=10865

 

 

Thanks CAD.  May your user name be the talk of the town this weekend!

[FLO]

Is suppressed a good thing for ppl in say Columbia? What do you mean by suppressed?

[wncsnow]

You can see the effects o the strong confluence on the simulated radar

[beanskip]

This seems significant. 

[ajr]

 

[BullCityWx]

Just going on feel and experience from past storms:

I expect the most snow to fall in the front end thump. If we see the generational totals advertised by several models, it's because it's going to snow like we've never seen before on Sunday before Midnight. If the front end thump doesnt work out, those totals dont work out. 

I fully expect this to start quicker than whatever the timeline ends up being, just from past events. 

There will be freezing rain and sleet mixed in almost everywhere, that I have no doubt about. I expect the most freezing rain from Athens to Columbia to Rocky Mount. I wouldnt be surprised to see this freezing rain line make it as far southeast as Florence to Bladen County up to Clinton and further NE. Most sleet will probably follow a line from Anderson to Rock Hill to Raleigh. Someone in that area could full well see half a foot of sleet. Surface temps are going to be at least 3-4 degrees colder than modeled now. N&W of that sleet line, especially the areas closest to the sleet line, will probably see the heaviest snow. 

Just my gut feelings based on what the models have shown and past experience.

 

[gman]

17 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Warm nose, soil temps, lack of qpf due to convection along the coast...which one will ruin my weekend?  

Poor guy. 

[ajr]

The cold air (including up north near the PV) is taking a jog back north the past few NAM runs..

[BornAgain13]

Does anyone have the snowmap for the 0z EPS Mean?

[beanskip]

Also significant. This is the model that's supposed to sniff out thermal profiles first right?

[griteater]

Thicknesses (and column temps) are a tick cooler thru the Carolinas on this run of the NAM....500mb is quite similar thru 57

[thekidcurtis]

Okay, so where is the info that shows they could be wrong? What is the other info that RAH is basing their forecast on right now? What other data are they using besides the fact storms as big as the models are showing are rare here?

Not to take away from ANYONE on the boards because these guys are absolute wizards when it comes to this stuff...

...but it’s relativity easy for someone to say on a amateur weather forum ‘crush job on the 0z’ and turn around and say ‘zilch on the 6z.’ Zero repercussion.

“But the models have been consistent.” Yes. Clown maps have indeed shown paste jobs for a while, but a forecast is more than just a clown map, otherwise on-air personalities would be extinct in the field, one could just go look for themselves. Professionals in this field live and breath the metrics beyond just the maps we see. You and I both know Fishel wants no more than to see feet of snow, but 39.5yrs of logic tells him to say no until certainty.

Let’s take what we see and say “we’re right” and not bash the ones who do this for a living “you’re wrong.”


.

[beanskip]

This better be a blip. 

[mackerel_sky]

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You can see the effects o the strong confluence on the simulated radar

Oooh, that’s a lot of rain, with 0 ice/snow on the lead finger! Ouch