December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[Sbcw0603]

1 minute ago, wxdawg10 said:

Man would love to see what Robert would have had to say about this storm.  The guy was amazing during my lurking days

He posted a in-depth video last night. He’s all in!

[beanskip]

Looking carefully at 0z and 6z guidance, it is important to note a very small, but almost universal model trend to relax the CAD. It only amounts to 20-30 miles, but there is a slight retreat in the southern extent and duration of cold air in, I believe, every model I saw. When it happens for two consecutive runs, it becomes more significant. Plenty of time, of course, for it to trend back. But right now, the idea that the models will catch on to the CAD as we get closer has not proven to be true.  

[strongwxnc]

2 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

Man would love to see what Robert would have had to say about this storm.  The guy was amazing during my lurking days

Ive heard he is all in. Big Frosty might give us a taste.

HurricaneTracker had a great write up in the Mountain/foothills thread last night. 

[FallsLake]

The FV3-GFS is coming in slightly warmer with surface and 850 temps but still a monster. It's out to hr 96. Just looking at the maps it looks like RDU gets over 1" liquid equivalent of snow before any type of mixing.  

[wake4est]

It's so juicy.

[Poimen]

[Orangeburgwx]

1 minute ago, wake4est said:

It's so juicy.

Stupid warm nose... I guarantee I get nothing but ice in that set up

[Brick Tamland]

15 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

The "too cute" comment caught my attention too.  I think RAH is taking the models with a grain of salt and, may, being/attempting to be "realistic".  12"+ before Xmas in north central NC is a little hard to believe, but I would expect more from the local NWS office than a snarky comment.  If the snow models are wrong, explain why.

That is what I am looking for, too. If you have some other reason or technology showing the models are wrong, then what is it? Just because it is rare to get a storm like the models show here and this early in December is not enough reason.

[Orangeburgwx]

Just now, Poimen said:

Slightly weaker HP if I had to guess by looking at that

[Poimen]

The 6Z Canadian is a snow beast for the I40-85 corridor from Asheville through the Triad. It looks like it has relatively narrow corridor of mixed frozen precip roughly from north of Charlotte to south of the Triad and then toward the Triangle. It seems that all of the guidance is converging on the arrival of precip in the NC piedmont to the pre-dawn hours Sunday, with the exception of the NAM. 

[FallsLake]

Elizabeth Gardner (WRAL) has a nice video:

https://www.wral.com/news/local/video/18043784/

 

[NCSNOW]

Canadian every run keeps getting RN/SN line further south. It had it up in VA this time yesterday. In fact it was the only model that had MBY all rain, even NC Mtns/Foothills. Not anymore, finally getting a sniff/clue.

And as far as RAH fcst office. This is par for the course. If they had to be graded on 3-5 day forecast , they would be unemployed. We see and deal with this all the time over in the triad.

[lilj4425]

9 minutes ago, wake4est said:

It's so juicy.

That weather map isn’t very accurate. Not sure why people continue to post it. No way I get 20 inches plus in Greenville. Probably not even half that. 

[packfan98]

2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Canadian every run keeps getting RN/SN line further south. It had it up in VA this time yesterday. In fact it was the only model that had MBY all rain, even NC Mtns/Foothills. Not anymore, finally getting a sniff/clue.

And as far as RAH fcst office. This is par for the course. If they had to be graded on 3-5 day forecast , they would be unemployed. We see and deal with this all the time over in the triad.

What's your guess for our backyard?  I'm think around 8" of snow/sleet with closer to a foot for GSO and foot plus for just NW of Winston.

[Orangeburgwx]

Heh, I just vented to the NWS CAE office in a private messege on Facebook for not acknowledging the threat as it stands.

[Poimen]

One disturbing thing is that the GFS soundings are consistently showing less than full saturation in the snow growth region early Sunday morning, which coincides with the heaviest precip and coldest portion of the storm through the column. I'm not sure what to make of that, but I'd like to see full saturation up there. 

[neilpappas75]

1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

Lol... nam might be the driest model.

That's because they take CAD more into account then others. We are all trying to jump ahead of ourselves with the tweaking of each model. Any of us who have been around awhile knows that there are many variables alive at this point. And we know that almost every piece has to happen, in the right order, for even a hint of a big snow storm for most of us. Most models are in agreement, but they are also so close to having a little of everything. So it comes down to what almost every snow storm comes down to here...location , location, location. I'm seeing a wet bulb forecast right below freezing from Northern Laurens all the way north. And the dew point just below that. Nam is showing classic CAD, which would be good if the wet bulb is correct, but could also present problems. If the CAD sets up too quickly, the air dries out. If it moves in too slowly, the low pressure warm air will probably be too much. Although I do not think they 2nd part will happen because I do not see this storm moving more north like they have been thinking. I think we are still very uncertain either way. With it having a chance to be snow bound 88 all over again, to another crazy ice storm. I do think the more West you are, without getting out of the CAD areas, the better chance you got if you are not in the mountains of WNC. Let's just all cross our fingers, or go stay at a Walmart in Asheville LOL

[POWERSTROKE]

31 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

Man would love to see what Robert would have had to say about this storm.  The guy was amazing during my lurking days and i learned alot from his discussions

He has it on fb and his website.  

[Poimen]

The FV3 is insane. It also has significant snows on the backside through late Monday. 

[gman]

GSP NWS just issued this Special Weather Statement.

 

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND...

Confidence is increasing that a winter storm will develop this
weekend across the region as low pressure tracks across the deep
south and moves off the southeast coast on Sunday. The storm has
the potential to produce a significant amount of snow across parts
of western North Carolina, the northern Upstate of South
Carolina, and the mountains of northeast Georgia. Precipitation
could begin as early as daybreak Saturday over southwest North
Carolina and northeast Georgia, spreading northeast through the
day. Conditions may deteriorate from southwest to northeast during
Saturday afternoon and evening across the area north of
Interstate 85. The precipitation is most likely to fall as snow
across most of the mountains, with a heavy accumulation possible
Saturday night and Sunday. Snow amounts are still uncertain, but
amounts in excess of six inches are possible across the mountains,
foothills, and northwest Piedmont of North Carolina. Some sleet
and freezing rain could mix in across the Little Tennessee River
Valley and along the I-85 corridor. The potential also exists for
a corridor of significant ice accumulation across the area south
of Interstate 85 Saturday night and Sunday morning. The wintry
precipitation may persist across parts of the region through
Monday. People with travel plans across the area this weekend
should monitor the latest weather forecasts. Future developments
will determine when and where a Winter Storm Watch will be issued

[griteater]

7 minutes ago, Poimen said:

One disturbing thing is that the GFS soundings are consistently showing less than full saturation in the snow growth region early Sunday morning, which coincides with the heaviest precip and coldest portion of the storm through the column. I'm not sure what to make of that, but I'd like to see full saturation up there. 

If we can’t saturate the dam column in this setup, it’s time to quit

[FallsLake]

Everybody in my office always ask me what the weathers going to do. I think right now, I'll just give them the RAH grid forecast. This should make it real clear:

Saturday Night

A chance of rain and snow between 1am and 3am, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Sunday

Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 11am, then rain and snow likely between 11am and 1pm, then rain after 1pm. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night

Snow, possibly mixed with rain and sleet before 7pm, then rain and sleet likely. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday

A chance of rain and snow before 9am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night

A chance of rain, mixing with snow after 8pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[NCSNOW]

17 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

What's your guess for our backyard?  I'm think around 8" of snow/sleet with closer to a foot for GSO and foot plus for just NW of Winston.

That"s a very safe bet an easy to achieve minimum total. If we don't mix at all its going to be 14-20. Cause we will get 1.6 to 2.0 qpf. I'm holding off and trying to get a better handle on the column. No doubt we'll see 8-12 even with sleet/mix at a minimum. Question that cant be answered currently is do we mix at all. I was dead set we would yesterday morning, but the models have continuously said we want over the past 24 hrs. However the transition line will set up shop and visit within arms reach at some point during the storm. The OTS and 850 lp staying to our south moving W-E should keep us out of harms way from waa ruining the column with a warm nose. If we do get a brief visit from the warm nose, we still have the fortune of sitting in the qpf sweet spot. Which means we can rack up fast with rates if they are timed on the front end or back end thumps. So gun to the head I'm at 10-14 right where we live. Saturday morning Ill bump up to 16-20 if confidence is still there we keep snow column throughout and bump down if we have to deal with brief to prolonged periods of sleet mixing in the middle of the storm.

[magpiemaniac]

30 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

And as far as RAH fcst office. This is par for the course. If they had to be graded on 3-5 day forecast , they would be unemployed. We see and deal with this all the time over in the triad.

As long as I can remember, RAH has had difficulty acknowledging that they have forecasting responsibilities for anywhere west of Chapel Hill.  If a storm’s not hitting Wake full throttle, they don’t consider it a threat anywhere else.

[Orangeburgwx]

Today

Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming southwest this afternoon.

Tonight

Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable.

Friday

Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. North winds around 5 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

Saturday

Rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Saturday Night

Rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Sunday

Rain. Near steady temperature around 40. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Sunday Night

Cloudy. Rain, mainly in the evening. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Monday

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in the mid 40s.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. Lows in the lower 30s.

Tuesday

Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the lower 50s.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear. Lows around 30.

Wednesday

Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s

[Orangeburgwx]

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Today

Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming southwest this afternoon.

Tonight

Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable.

Friday

Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. North winds around 5 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

Saturday

Rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Saturday Night

Rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Sunday

Rain. Near steady temperature around 40. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Sunday Night

Cloudy. Rain, mainly in the evening. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Monday

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in the mid 40s.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. Lows in the lower 30s.

Tuesday

Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the lower 50s.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear. Lows around 30.

Wednesday

Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s

Lol they don't know the exact temps for my area XD

[wxdawg10]

looks like Allan Huffman is going all in on this.  RAH still on an island

[Waiting on snow]

3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Lol they don't know the exact temps for my area XD

What are you talking about? Are you really hyping flurries?

[Dunkman]

35 minutes ago, Poimen said:

One disturbing thing is that the GFS soundings are consistently showing less than full saturation in the snow growth region early Sunday morning, which coincides with the heaviest precip and coldest portion of the storm through the column. I'm not sure what to make of that, but I'd like to see full saturation up there. 

Sounds like a lot of pingers which I am definitely concerned about. Good for sledding I guess.

[gearhead302]

36 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Heh, I just vented to the NWS CAE office in a private messege on Facebook for not acknowledging the threat as it stands.

Dude,  you have got to stop.  There is no credible threat to CAE or the surrounding area.  The only threat in SC is GSP.  They're professionals.....  let them do their jobs.