ILMRoss Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I spoke a little too soon, next frame the r/s line makes a bit of a comeback, almost back to the previous run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 FV-3 through 0Z Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: FV-3 through 0Z Monday. I'm guessing that's not kuchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Waiting on snow said: I'm guessing that's not kuchera? It's Kuchera, so I've been told. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: FV-3 through 0Z Monday. Verbatim a warm nose sticks right up 77 into Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: FV-3 through 0Z Monday. That is ridiculous! Especially based on the PBP, weaker highs, big North shifts and I still got 20+ inches! I love the new GFS! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Lemonade Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: It's Kuchera, so I've been told. It is this is non kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Monday Night Scattered flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Disco Lemonade said: It is this is non kuchera Pretty much matches the northern upstate. Must be going all snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 FV3 still in line with prev run for the most part. Mercy that's a lot of precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said: Verbatim a warm nose sticks right up 77 into Charlotte. 77 or 85? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That is ridiculous! Especially based on the PBP, weaker highs, big North shifts and I still got 20+ inches! I love the new GFS! And hey we get more Monday! Can't wait for my roof to fall in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 49 minutes ago, GunBlade said: I really really hope this storm is as great as many models show, but a word of caution, especially for those around 85 in NC. Enjoy the model runs but don’t live and die by them. Read the thread below and temper expectations. Better to be pleasantly surprised if the totals are close. The pic and thread are from the Jan 17 storm that was a big bust. Not saying these storms are the same, just that the cutoff line and WAA are notoriously hard for models to get right. Union county was looking great the morning before the storm and we got shafted. QPF was also way overdone by the models Its easy for most of us and myself to get wrapped up in these models but this is a tough area even for short range models to get right. Hopefully this doesn’t repeat itself with this storm though!! This is why I ALWAYS get more excited when we have overrunning with shortwaves dropping down to provide some ULL action. I am curious if anyone has any data on how much the areas OUTSIDE of the mountains have fared with Miller A storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Some of these clown maps are so confusing. And how about that FV-3 map, depicting at least 1 foot (most places more) from RDU to CLT, across to Asheville, to the Triad, up to Danville? Has that ever happened before across a wide area across the state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Poimen said: FV-3 through 0Z Monday. So this goes off of soundings and not TT sfc maps im guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs. I am just looking at the setup. I think it is important to remember that with most storms here in the south we will always have some WAA. It's a matter of where it sets up... that determines who is happy and who is sad. It just turns out that most of the time ( not all of time ) it is I-85. Not saying that is the case this time but I proceed with caution on all storms because of past events. This has burned us too many times to not think it could bust in some places showing huge totals right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Not a big fan of this map projection, but trend loop here for the backside northern stream wave dropping in. You can see the NE trough is trending southwest (more confluence) and the western ridge is taller....essentially the flow is getting a little more blocked up and more amplified, forcing the wave to drop into the trough. The southern wave is trending a little less amplified as well, so it's not as close to the coast. Who knows where we go from here though - could easily trend back the other way over the next few days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs. Yeah. I'll take 20 inches of snow instead of the amount of ice that could come further south down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 German looks bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cornsnow said: I am just looking at the setup. I think it is important to remember that with most storms here in the south we will always have some WAA. It's a matter of where it sets up... that determines who is happy and who is sad. It just turns out that most of the time ( not all of time ) it is I-85. Not saying that is the case this time but I proceed with caution on all storms because of past events. This has burned us too many times to not think it could bust in some places showing huge totals right now. I absolutely agree, we've all been burned before and I;m sure we remember every one of them. But that doesn't mean that we can start calling a very minimal change on a single model run a trend. Now if it starts showing warmer for a few runs in a row then it's time to worry. That may well happen, but it hasn't yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Some of these clown maps are so confusing. And how about that FV-3 map, depicting at least 1 foot (most places more) from RDU to CLT, across to Asheville, to the Triad, up to Danville? Has that ever happened before across a wide area across the state? Yes 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, SnowDawg said: I absolutely agree, we've all been burned before and I;m sure we remember every one of them. But that doesn't mean that we can start calling a very minimal change on a single model run a trend. Now if it starts showing warmer for a few runs in a row then it's time to worry. That may well happen, but it hasn't yet. Agree 100%. A trend would be over all models (or most) for a couple of time periods for me as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Link is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cornsnow said: I am just looking at the setup. I think it is important to remember that with most storms here in the south we will always have some WAA. It's a matter of where it sets up... that determines who is happy and who is sad. It just turns out that most of the time ( not all of time ) it is I-85. Not saying that is the case this time but I proceed with caution on all storms because of past events. This has burned us too many times to not think it could bust in some places showing huge totals right now. We are living on the edge in the southern piedmont as of now...ideally, we'd certainly want everything farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Yeah. I'll take 20 inches of snow instead of the amount of ice that could come further south down your way. I'm hoping that my location in the mountains in GA will only change over to sleet mainly , which is normal around here in these setups when the CAD is really stout to see more snow/sleet, while those just a bit further south get crippled with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, griteater said: We are living on the edge in the southern piedmont as of now...ideally, we'd certainly want everything farther south Most storms are are right? Or it seems that way. I have some friends up on the top side of Mooresville.... up above HWY 150. Think it would be better up that way for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Jesh my Meteogram is a mess... .62" snow .11" ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: I'm hoping that my location in the mountains in GA will only change over to sleet mainly , which is normal around here in these setups when the CAD is really stout to see more snow/sleet, while those just a bit further south get crippled with ice. Oh I got ya. I don't know why I thought you were in Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Waiting on snow said: Oh I got ya. I don't know why I thought you were in Athens. I was at this time last year, but have since come back north after graduating last spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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