TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS is warmer this run. Let us see if it continues, like it typically does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Stick with the NAM folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: You would think the low off the coast with the northern stream dropping in wouldn’t make the low rocket east like that. If it dropped in earlier it would keep the low closer to the coast....it's a little late, so it goes over to showery precip on the backside. Northern stream really dropping in strong, late, this run, like FV3 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 42 minutes ago, Wow said: The wonders of low dewpoints as precip builds in. God bless CAD. QUOTE OF THE DAY!! HANDS DOWN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It’s actually more this run if you toggle back and forth. Keep toggling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Snow line further east in NC with slightly cooler temps. Strong NEly flow at 925, easterly at 950 and weakly southerly at 700. Below freezing throughout the column at RDU. 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: GFS is warmer this run. Let us see if it continues, like it typically does. So, cooler or warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: GFS is warmer this run. Let us see if it continues, like it typically does. Why are you looking at that? Just look for players on the field and track of the low. CAD my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewJL Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Total snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 yeah wow, the GFS is looking much like the FV3 on the backside wave dropping in...who knows how strong that precip will be, but an impressive evolution this far south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 soundings not as good for clt this run, flirting with sleet most of the storm. prob realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Total snowSeems lile totals went downSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, griteater said: yeah wow, the GFS is looking much like the FV3 on the backside wave dropping in...who knows how strong that precip will be, but an impressive evolution this far south yeah precip redevelops with it too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS definitely trending toward its successor WRT the upper level low swing through early Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: yeah wow, the GFS is looking much like the FV3 on the backside wave dropping in...who knows how strong that precip will be, but an impressive evolution this far south 1 minute ago, Lookout said: yeah precip redevelops with it too... That could be a very very interesting development if it were to somehow get a hold of the southern stream low a little earlier. I still think it’s a very real possibility at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 It looks like the wave dropping down on the back side is developing better off the coast on the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Wow said: GFS definitely trending toward its successor WRT the upper level low swing through early Tuesday not very often you see an upper low diving southeast into georgia...drops another 0.25 to 0.40 of mostly snow too. hopefully the fv3 is even more bullish. 0z canadian does the same thing btw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The new UKMet looks pretty much identical with the GFS on the early maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Big improvement on Canadian. Makes the Miller B transfer after more eastward and less northward progression of the low. Allows CAD to establish deeper south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I really really hope this storm is as great as many models show, but a word of caution, especially for those around 85 in NC. Enjoy the model runs but don’t live and die by them. Read the thread below and temper expectations. Better to be pleasantly surprised if the totals are close. The pic and thread are from the Jan 17 storm that was a big bust. Not saying these storms are the same, just that the cutoff line and WAA are notoriously hard for models to get right. Union county was looking great the morning before the storm and we got shafted. QPF was also way overdone by the models Its easy for most of us and myself to get wrapped up in these models but this is a tough area even for short range models to get right. Hopefully this doesn’t repeat itself with this storm though!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Lookout said: not very often you see an upper low diving southeast into georgia...drops another 0.25 to 0.40 of mostly snow too. hopefully the fv3 is even more bullish. 0z canadian does the same thing btw. Yep, and I've always noticed the UL progression most always trends stronger at the last minute with a cutoff with this big snowstorms.. always the last piece of the puzzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: Big improvement on Canadian. Makes the Miller B transfer after more eastward and less northward progression of the low. Allows CAD to establish deeper south. The Canadian is a snow bomb for northern NC and a lot of VA wow!! Hr 90 it would be ripping absolute fatties. Close to 3 ft of snow northern foothills lmao! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: The new UKMet looks pretty much identical with the GFS on the early maps Does it continue its idea of a low further off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Ginormous south trend in 0z CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: So, cooler or warmer? Warmer, just a little bit. Fear the trend potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 CMC just crushing I-40 and north in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Does it continue its idea of a low further off the coast? Yeah, it scoots it on off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: Ginormous south trend in 0z CMC. Yup.. CMC finally got a clue. Even has the UL bonus snow on Tuesday rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 FV3 Just started coming in. It should be done by time Army/Navy kicks off this weekend 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Yup.. CMC finally got a clue. Even has the UL bonus snow on Tuesday rolling through. I have defended it at times in the past, but it has been really terrible this storm with how it has jumped around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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