griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, AndrewJL said: Yeah, this run looks pretty darn close to the 18z. Maybe a touch north at hour 54, but its way too early to be splitting hairs. Yeah, it looks just a touch north with the precip shield and temps...just barely..wonder if that small shortwave at 57 on the west coast is exerting some small influence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The NAM pushed freezing rain almost all the way back to Fort Payne, Alabama. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, beanskip said: Hard to find any meaningful changes through 54 hours vs 18z. I don’t see any myself. Precip shield and LP placement all look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 At 72, the low is in the same place.. Minor differences.. perhaps a hair more north with the precip sheild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Looks like the northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas is going to drop in more on the backside this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 It looks a little stronger at 500 with the southern stream wave, and there's a s/w diving into it from the north, more pronounced than before. But we still have good confluence over NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Also freezing rain underway at hour 84 in Columbia Owens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 @78 the secondary low off SC coast looks like it would want to form just a little closer to the coast, as you can see the precip maxima tucked in ever so slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Pretty minor differences at this range.. within 20-30 miles by the looks of it.. overall setup is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Based on the crude black and white maps, it looks like the Canadian is finally joining the party, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 A little warmer initially in NC, but cooling kicks in nicely as precip rolls thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The northern s/w is less strung out and more defined like the NAM... that's likely given the resolution. I think the late phase and cutoff UL solution is looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 well the 0z gfs holds in showing much warmer temps. If our suspicions are correct, this could be an epic bust on it's way out the door. Nam is up to 8 degrees colder than the gfs over north ga. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I appreciate y'alls PbP's!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Very small differences — freezing line at 2m and 850 about 25 miles north. Margin-of-error type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Lookout said: well the 0z gfs holds in showing much warmer temps. If our suspicions are correct, this could be an epic bust on it's way out the door. Nam is up to 8 degrees colder than the gfs over north ga. It's the GFS, and at this range what's the surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 It sure looks like the Northern Stream is wave is going to drop in and prolong the precip more this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 At 87-90, snow line looks similar to last run...across N SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Through 90 there is less total precip over WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 At hour 90 the low is a good bit further off the coast than the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Wow said: It's the GFS, and at this range what's the surprise? Even for the gfs, that's pretty bad. That's more like the old avn type of busts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Through 90 there is less total precip over WNC Couple of models now showing that...hope that's not a trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Snow line further east in NC with slightly cooler temps. Strong NEly flow at 925, easterly at 950 and weakly southerly at 700. Below freezing throughout the column at RDU. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewJL Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Northern edge of the meaningful precip still running through the Richmond area. Looks basically identical to the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Through 90 there is less total precip over WNC No, it's not. It's pretty much on par with the prev run thru 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The 0z is continuing the idea of keeping the low further of the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: It sure looks like the Northern Stream is wave is going to drop in and prolong the precip more this run You would think the low off the coast with the northern stream dropping in wouldn’t make the low rocket east like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Couple of models now showing that...hope that's not a trend It’s actually more this run if you toggle back and forth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: No, it's not. It's pretty much on par with the prev run thru 96 Agree. These “less precip” posts are tiresome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: No, it's not. It's pretty much on par with the prev run thru 96 It is less in the mountains of NC. Many more places with less than 1 inch total qpf at 96 compared to 18z. Maybe .25 to .50 less in places the western most part of the state on GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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