WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Wow said: NAM builds in a 1040mb banana high over the OH valley to the NE. You can't ask for anything better. It's like an old 384hr GFS fantasy storm coming true. Instead it's an 84 hour NAM fantasy storm. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Icon is essentially a swing and a miss for all of VA now at 0z. Barely gets any precip up this way. @90 it has light to moderate snow coming in from the southwest up this way. That cold is serious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: No doubt! Looks suspect.. . The hour 84 NAM looking suspect?? No.... Couldn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Wow said: NAM builds in a 1040mb banana high over the OH valley to the NE. You can't ask for anything better. It's like an old 384hr GFS fantasy storm coming true. This is pretty crazy. It is the NAM at hour 84 but man it is pretty. Not sure what to believe now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Alright who's going to get dry-slotted? Was just about to post on this. In the what could go wrong category, you can see the dry slot moving from MS into Bama here as the system gets wound up. NW NC and into SW VA is the place to be in this simulation for precip duration. The stronger and more wound up the system is, the more dry slotting comes into play. Of course, there is explosive precip out ahead of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Instead it's an 84 hour NAM fantasy storm. This is preferred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 This is pretty crazy......925mb winds of 50 to 55 knot winds across damming regions of ga/sc by sunday 12z. 40 knot winds at 950mb. 10 meter 20 knots. It's Some serious wedging lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Speaking of sampling, didn't @dtk at one point debunk the theory that models are less accurate if the shortwave is over an area with almost no in-situ observations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM really bringing in the cold air to NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 This is Really Impressive. From the 18z EURO Ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SteveVa said: Speaking of sampling, didn't @dtk at one point debunk the theory that models are less accurate if the shortwave is over an area with almost no in-situ observations? I hope so. Can you find it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Knowing the ground wont get any warmer over the next couple of days, anyone have a hotlink to a soil temp map? We're certainly not frozen, but we arent in the upper 40s either. Rates will easily overcome current conditions. (Crystal clear tonight in the triad. Cold already!) You could try the following (0-10cm layer): http://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soil-temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The ICON, which has no knowledge of CAD, has trended back south. Gives the mtns a real shellacking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 ICON finally slowly painfully trying to get a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wow said: The ICON, which has no knowledge of CAD, has trended back south. Gives the mtns a real shellacking. I was reviewing it after my first post and it has a very odd surface depiction wrt qpf. Big dry slot in SC and up into the CLT area, right when the low is taking off the coast of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Lookout said: This is pretty crazy......925mb winds of 50 to 55 knot winds across damming regions of ga/sc by sunday 12z. 40 knot winds at 950mb. Some serious wedging lol at hr84 the wedge is in full effect here and Nega..dew points remain in mid 20's with almost an inch of liquid. I'm very optimistic that this will be a great event for NW SC and parts of Nega despite what any clown maps have shown and will continue to show. Ive learned one thing over the years on here and that's to look at specifics instead of clown maps...although theyre fun or depressing to look at. Looking forward to your input in the next 3 days! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 ICON apparently uses icosohedral representation of space. Why, I don't know. GFS is starting to roll in. Getting ready to have your hopes and dreams dashed against a rock. 3 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 20 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Knowing the ground wont get any warmer over the next couple of days, anyone have a hotlink to a soil temp map? We're certainly not frozen, but we arent in the upper 40s either. Rates will easily overcome current conditions. (Crystal clear tonight in the triad. Cold already!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, WidreMann said: I hope so. Can you find it? Found it. Sampling makes no difference according to this study, looks like another one of those "6z/18z model runs are inferior" myths that might have been true a while ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Never thought it could possibly trend too far.. south? Starting to look like less precip up into VA with more suppression but still a lot of time to go. About time for late NW adjustments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM dewpoints shows the wedge out to 84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Never thought it could possibly trend too far.. south? Starting to look like less precip up into VA with more suppression but still a lot of time to go. About time for late NW adjustments I wouldn't worry to much about that man... your location is in a very good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Thru hr45, GFS is right on top of the last run at h5 and overall temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, oconeexman said: at hr84 the wedge is in full effect here and Nega..dew points remain in mid 20's with almost an inch of liquid. I'm very optimistic that this will be a great event for NW SC and parts of Nega despite what any clown maps have shown and will continue to show. Ive learned one thing over the years on here and that's to look at specifics instead of clown maps...although theyre fun or depressing to look at. Looking forward to your input in the next 3 days! The 0z nam is a little slower than the 18z run in dropping temps but it happens very quick when it does. Interestingly the nam is showing the core of the cold air at 950mb instead of 925mb this run. I wouldn't be surprised to see it speed up by a number of hours again since i suspect the nam, nor any model, will be able to accurately get down the quick cool down over the western carolinas where the whole atmosphere is quite a bit colder/drier. Also, nam is showing quite a bit of mid level cooling and given the cold low levels i suspect there could be quite a bit of sleet over northeast ga....especially considering precip rates. But watch levels between 850mb and 700mb...warm nose there could screw the upstate's snow for a little while. Nam, not surprising is more bullish with it than the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Oh yeah, we're so gonna crush those grounds temps, and quickly! So remove ground temps from your winter storm reasons for failure checklist. It's gonna accumulate no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Boy the NAM just crushes NE GA. Marietta and Athens each see about an inch QPF if freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 591 a little bigger over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewJL Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Thru hr45, GFS is right on top of the last run at h5 and overall temps Yeah, this run looks pretty darn close to the 18z. Maybe a touch north at hour 54, but its way too early to be splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 If anything, it's a little slower with both streams, which means it'll start to match up with the Euro and make RAH happy. Also means confluence will stick around longer in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Hard to find any meaningful changes through 54 hours vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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