December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

And yet we've seen it happen even within recent years. Can the satellites do as good a job as soundings

I would think you'd need data to make a claim one way or the other. Just because big model adjustments happen, doesn't mean you know why.

[Eric]

54 minutes ago, +nao said:

How many winter storms have we had in the southern piedmont in the first half of December that are even close to what the models are predicting? For that matter how many winter storms in NC have been as big as what is being advertised?

For early December snowfalls in Charlotte that were 10" or greater, you have to go back to December 2, 1896 when the city received 10" of snow.  Monroe, NC received 12" of snow and 16" of snow fell in Chester, SC from that same snowstorm.  I believe one of the largest December snowfalls in North Carolina occurred in early December 1886 when over two feet of snow fell around Asheville.

[franklin NCwx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

So the 18z Euro is now in, but it only goes out to hr90...and it has improvements for the southern participants of the subforum

It's stronger and farther southwest with the shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low over the northeast states, and the confluent flow over the NE is a touch stronger thru the run.  Meanwhile, the backside wave looks like it would drop into the trough a little more than the 12z run (just guessing based on the look).  

At the end of the run at hr90, it has heavy precip in N GA with the sfc freezing line past Lake Lanier into NE side of Atlanta, and snow is breaking out in central and western NC into the NE upstate

 

Go on........

[Jenkins]

Brad P's livestream.

 

[beanskip]

Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Weather  boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.

Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner. 

This thing is coming.  

 

 

[Wow]

7 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Wearher boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.

Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner. 

This thing is coming.  

 

 

Get your ass back in NC!     Having you and burger away from something as potentially memorable as this one is an injustice!  

 

Now if I can get Robert posting on here again...

[lilj4425]

Just now, Wow said:

Get your ass back in NC!     Having you and burger away from something as potentially memorable as this one is an injustice!  

 

Now if I can get Robert posting on here again...

I miss FoothillsNC.  

[burrel2]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

 

Grrr.....!!!

[Poimen]

 

(5 Dec 2018): Due to dataflow issues from NCEP, data may be delayed for some American models (NAM, GFS, etc.) this evenin

 

 

[Pilotwx]

12 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Weather  boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.

Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner. 

This thing is coming.  

 

 

I remember being on wright weather as well. This has the potential to be historic for sure. I have never seen this many model runs with this much snow, never !

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

6 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Wearher boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.

Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner. 

This thing is coming.  

 

 

I have to agree with you...... As we all can plainly see, a large part of this forum is going to be affected by this one. From over 50 years of watching the NC winter storms, I can tell you from past events that I-85 is the line of demarcation between mostly snow and mix a lot of the time. However, this is not always the case and with today's trends, I would not sleep on this one if I was in the upstate. I am not really focused on track as much as I am precip amounts. If I was in that freezing rain band, I would be really concerned. (Watch out NEGA) As GSP stated in their AFD. "once in a generation"

[BIG FROSTY]

Get your ass back in NC!     Having you and burger away from something as potentially memorable as this one is an injustice!  
 
Now if I can get Robert posting on here again...

Big Rob had a good video on the storm tonight!! He’s going BIG!!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[donsutherland1]

A moisture-laden storm will bring heavy precipitation to parts of the Southeast and Lower Middle Atlantic region during the December 9-11 period. Cities such as Atlanta, Charleston, Pensacola, and Tallahassee could pick up 2" or more precipitation.

As a result, 2018 would rank among the 15 wettest years on record for a number of those cities.

Farther north, the pattern remains consistent with the composite 500 mb patterns that have seen significant accumulations of snow in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Further, the guidance has gradually moved into increasing consensus for a moderate to possibly significant snowfall in such cities as Asheville, Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, Raleigh, and Roanoke. With cold air damming likely to precede the storm and a strong ridge likely to block it from turning sharply up the Coast, my confidence in a track favorable to the Lower Middle Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast has continued to increase.

Consistent with many of the notable snowstorms to affect this region, accumulating snow will likely remain south of the Mason-Dixon Line. There is also a possibility that the accumulating snow remains south of Washington, DC and its nearby Virginia suburbs. 

[mckinnonwg]

Ole Big Joe

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1070501843015483393

 

[Poimen]

NAM is now running on TT...BTW. 

[NCSNOW]

9 minutes ago, Poimen said:

(5 Dec 2018): Due to dataflow issues from NCEP, data may be delayed for some American models (NAM, GFS, etc.) this evenin

How does this never happen in middle of july when its 90/70 everyday. I mean its popcorn time for this set of 0zs.  What is dataflow issues. Probably some preventive maintenace an I.T. guy who lives in the MA decided to carry out

[PackGrad05]

Interesting point that I think is important to remember:
The model output for snow is how much snow will fall, not necessarily stick.  

A lot of this snow that sticks will be washed away when we get the changeover to rain.  I still think an extensive changeover to rain will occur east of 85.

[WidreMann]

10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

How does this never happen in middle of july when its 90/70 everyday. I mean its popcorn time for this set of 0zs.  What is dataflow issues. Probably some preventive maintenace an I.T. guy who lives in the MA decided to carry out

It does happen, we just don't care. I've seen it before.

[Wow]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A moisture-laden storm will bring heavy precipitation to parts of the Southeast and Lower Middle Atlantic region during the December 9-11 period. Cities such as Atlanta, Charleston, Pensacola, and Tallahassee could pick up 2" or more precipitation.

As a result, 2018 would rank among the 15 wettest years on record for a number of those cities.

Farther north, the pattern remains consistent with the composite 500 mb patterns that have seen significant accumulations of snow in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Further, the guidance has gradually moved into increasing consensus for a moderate to possibly significant snowfall in such cities as Asheville, Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, Raleigh, and Roanoke. With cold air damming likely to precede the storm and a strong ridge likely to block it from turning sharply up the Coast, my confidence in a track favorable to the Lower Middle Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast has continued to increase.

Consistent with many of the notable snowstorms to affect this region, accumulating snow will likely remain south of the Mason-Dixon Line. There is also a possibility that the accumulating snow remains south of Washington, DC and its nearby Virginia suburbs. 

The Don has spoken.  Thank you, Don.

[ryan1234]

Interesting point that I think is important to remember:
The model output for snow is how much snow will fall, not necessarily stick.  
A lot of this snow that sticks will be washed away when we get the changeover to rain.  I still think an extensive changeover to rain will occur east of 85.

Not saying you’re wrong, but at this point in time, it’s hard to go against the current trends. Of course that could change for better or worst. What burger said pretty much hit the nail on the head as far as this storm goes.


.

[WidreMann]

1 minute ago, ryan1234 said:

 

 

Not saying you’re wrong, but at this point in time, it’s hard to go against the current trends. Of course that could change for better or worst. What burger said pretty much hit the nail on the head as far as this storm goes.


.

The clown maps show big snow numbers, but the temperatures show a more marginal event. Now, with consistent precip and WAA further way, it definitely could be a blowout. But it wouldn't take much for this to be a rainstorm for a lot of NC, and the GFS has shown that even in recent runs.

[Wow]

GEFS TREND!

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Interesting point that I think is important to remember:
The model output for snow is how much snow will fall, not necessarily stick.  

A lot of this snow that sticks will be washed away when we get the changeover to rain.  I still think an extensive changeover to rain will occur east of 85.

FWIW, even as it's really early to use the Bufkit soundings products, snow accumulations from Charlotte and Raleigh were approximately 15" and 8" respectively on the 18z GFS. More fell, but those were the accumulations (maximum temperature algorithm).

[SENC]

2 hours ago, Wow said:

Not since Dec '89

He, (Wow),, said it not I mean again,,   NOT *I*  ,,   did you hear this?  @Orangeburgwx  & @tramadoc???  (Not too raise our hopes or anything..  ).. but that's really, saying something.. when the MOD mentions this.. 

wasn't 89 a El Nina year? (edit for correction) 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

27 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Big Rob had a good video on the storm tonight!! He’s going BIG!!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

So is Brad Panovich. 

He showed his snow meter that some thought was his forecast. Including myself

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

FWIW, even as it's really early to use the Bufkit soundings products, snow accumulations from Charlotte and Raleigh were approximately 15" and 8" respectively on the 18z GFS. More fell, but those were the accumulations (maximum temperature algorithm).

interesting!   Yeah I'm going to be looking at bufkit and sref plumes a lot in coming days.

[WidreMann]

HP is weaker compared to 18z

[mackerel_sky]

5 minutes ago, Wow said:

GEFS TREND!

Looks like the Southern edge actually retracted N slightly on 18z

[Brick Tamland]

45 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Wearher boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.

Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner. 

This thing is coming.  

 

 

I just don't think you can discount the consistency of the models, and how different models are showing the same thing over and over. And everything has trended colder and farther south and east with the snow all day. Yeah, I can see questioning getting a foot here, but even half of that would be amazing this early in December. I just don't see this being more rain than mostly snow and other frozen precip based on how consistent and similar the Euro, GFS, FV3, and NAM have been.

[WidreMann]

Thru 48, DPs are lower across east, but HP is a little weaker. Upper levels are similar (tempwise). Probably not anything important.