December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[PackWxMan]

I think we all need to take a few deep breaths. We are close. But this is the same thread different year. Only difference, we aren't in late jan, we are in early Dec.

If I may, I would like to play devils advocate here.

Let's do the say it outloud test. "Model are showing widespread 10-20inches across NC in early december" - We know how this plays out with moisture robbing, warm noses, etc. It doesn't end pretty boys.

[BullCityWx]

GEFS is gonna have another stupid high mean 

[Wow]

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

GEFS is gonna have another stupid high mean 

Yup.. pushing an AVERAGE of 2.5" QPF over CLT

[2010 extreme]

Just came here cause I have family in the southeast affected by this storm but looks like I visited here at the wrong time.  Anyways looks like the Charlotte area will be close between snow and sleet. 

[MillerA]

18z Euro

 

 

Check out @RyanMaue’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1070483217562681344?s=09

[strongwxnc]

2 minutes ago, MillerA said:

18z Euro

 

 

Check out @RyanMaue’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1070483217562681344?s=09

Very much further south.. 

[DopplerWx]

2 minutes ago, MillerA said:

18z Euro

 

 

Check out @RyanMaue’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1070483217562681344?s=09

wow, snow line continues to shift south

[Iceagewhereartthou]

12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like the totals increased again farther south and east on the GFS.

While the numbers are different, you can clearly see the western upstate warm bubble phenomenon, going from 20 in Sptbg to 3 in Oconee; an area that is slightly higher elevation and closer to the mtns. Euro has been showing this as well.

[Wow]

4 minutes ago, MillerA said:

18z Euro

Check out @RyanMaue’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1070483217562681344?s=09

The r/s line is even a bit more further south than the FV3

[Cheers for Western Ears]

Do you guys expect the all too common nw trend to commence in the next day or so or are you guys fairly confident it will stay suppressed until show time? 

[HKY_WX]

A few tidbits to keep in mind on this one. The global models are notoriously bad at picking up on mid-level warming (aka changeovers to sleet/freezing rain). I wouldn't get too giddy with any of these precip-type maps until we get into the NAM range. It's generally the best when it comes to the full top-down thermal profile of the atmosphere. 

[NCSU_Pi]

Guys, I hate to ask a MBY post when you're likely in storm mode, but I beg a special dispensation: I'm flying back to RDU late Saturday night, and I would like to hear about the timing. I have a very inconsistent internet connection here, and many common sources of information, like Twitter, are blocked by the Great Firewall.

How likely is an impact by Saturday night? Not just in terms of getting on the ground, but also getting home from the airport. I know I could probably read back some pages, but I don't have a whole lot of time, and I'm worried I may lose my connection at any moment.

Thanks, and please have mercy, mods.

[SnowGoose69]

It’s still too early to know if this south push is a long term move.  We’ve seen this occur before around this 3-4 day range and then as soon as everything comes ashore and is sampled the models pull a 180 one way or another and never move back 

[mstr4j]

11 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

I think we all need to take a few deep breaths. We are close. But this is the same thread different year. Only difference, we aren't in late jan, we are in early Dec.

If I may, I would like to play devils advocate here.

Let's do the say it outloud test. "Model are showing widespread 10-20inches across NC in early december" - We know how this plays out with moisture robbing, warm noses, etc. It doesn't end pretty boys.

I'm the weather guy at my school, granted not a good one, mainly the guy that tries to regurgitate all the information I read on here.  Granted I am also the one that loves snow and I have seen the term giddy several times on here and I'm that times freaking 20.  BUTTTTTT, dadgumit there's always a but - is it really possible for this to happen without WAA and everything Pack said? Who knows? Being the optimist, no one thought david could win either.  #BeatGoliath #LetItFreakingSnow

[McDowell_Weather]

3 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

With these south trends do you think Burke county just west of Hickory still can score 12+ or is going to go downhill from here?

We're sitting pretty no worry's. 

[kvegas-wx]

2 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

Guys, I hate to ask a MBY post when you're likely in storm mode, but I beg a special dispensation: I'm flying back to RDU late Saturday night, and I would like to hear about the timing. I have a very inconsistent internet connection here, and many common sources of information, like Twitter, are blocked by the Great Firewall.

How likely is an impact by Saturday night? Not just in terms of getting on the ground, but also getting home from the airport. I know I could probably read back some pages, but I don't have a whole lot of time, and I'm worried I may lose my connection at any moment.

Thanks, and please have mercy, mods.

Sunday start for the potential heavy stuff.  Should be fine in Ral for saturday night as it stands now.

[FallsLake]

Some secondary thoughts, ground temps should at least be on the cool side for this event. We're going to have a couple of days with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. That should helps set the stage for this storm. **I'm currently at 31 degrees, going to be a good freeze tonight.   

[Miller]

Is there a forecast map from NWS of total ice accumulation for upstate SC? 

[wxduncan]

Just now, McDowell_Weather said:

We're sitting pretty no worry's. 

Good to hear I'm really pulling for at least 12+ I could care less about those 15-25 totals just want a foot that would be amazing for around here.

[BullCityWx]

Good lord. 18z GEFS mean looks to be CLOSE to 20” from Charlotte to about Burlington

[Cornsnow]

Just now, Queencitywx said:

Good lord. 18z GEFS mean looks to be CLOSE to 20” from Charlotte to about Burlington

Until the energy is onshore and being sampled I am having a hard time believing any of this. We have seen this song and dance before only lose it in the next few days.

[WidreMann]

(1) Please keep in mind with those TropicalTidbits maps that it's 10:1 ratios and it includes sleet or mix.

(2) The ground is warm and temperatures will be marginal outside of the foothills and northwest piedmont.

(3) We do have a nice high coming down, but it's not a classic mega-HP that will guarantee cold temperatures. We'll have to rely on evap cooling to get down to or below freezing in many areas.

(4) The ULL is coming onshore over the next 24 hours in CA. Surely the additional sampling will cause the models to adjust in some way.

(5) When have we ever seen a storm trend south that wasn't a sheared out mess? We are past the point where that will likely happen. The storm will likely trend somewhat NW. That doesn't mean it's over, as the cold air could be stronger, or the trough could dig deeper allowing a better track.

Basically, a lot of things can go wrong and probably well. Foothills and NW piedmont will be fine in most scenarios. Probably even Charlotte. But the rest of the Piedmont, as well as northern SC have I'd say a greater than 60% chance of a full-on bust with this one. I do think flakes are guaranteed for many folks, but they just may not be accumulating flakes.

[WidreMann]

Just now, Cornsnow said:

Until the energy is onshore and being sampled I am having a hard time believing any of this. We have seen this song and dance before only lose it in the next few days.

Usually, it's the opposite. The storm is OTS until it's sampled and then it comes back. We'll surely see an adjustment in track, with concomitant adjustment in p-type boundaries. I don't think it'll go away outright.

[Cornsnow]

Just now, WidreMann said:

Usually, it's the opposite. The storm is OTS until it's sampled and then it comes back. We'll surely see an adjustment in track, with concomitant adjustment in p-type boundaries. I don't think it'll go away outright.

You are correct, I do not seeing going away but these totals are crazy.

[McDowell_Weather]

1 minute ago, wxduncan said:

Good to hear I'm really pulling for at least 12+ I could care less about those 15-25 totals just want a foot that would be amazing for around here.

I could see us getting 8-16 I know that's I big spread but I'm waiting on the nam before I fine tune that. If we can stay all snow longer we could get two feet. The problem is warm air aloft we almost always get a little sleep mixed in that can really cut totals down but for right now we got second row seats to this one mtns got front row but hey I ain't complaining it's the first week of December lol

[Tony Sisk]

7 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

I'm the weather guy at my school, granted not a good one, mainly the guy that tries to regurgitate all the information I read on here.  Granted I am also the one that loves snow and I have seen the term giddy several times on here and I'm that times freaking 20.  BUTTTTTT, dadgumit there's always a but - is it really possible for this to happen without WAA and everything Pack said? Who knows? Being the optimist, no one thought david could win either.  #BeatGoliath #LetItFreakingSnow

I'm assuming a youth in HS. Fantastic to see youth interested in weather. Keep up the great work, and hopefully others at your school are interested. One of my fondest memories from HS 78-81 was a young boy with special needs that memorized the weather every day. There are lots of excellent weather sources here...follow your dreams. Hope you make a LOT of people happy this weekend!

sorry for the banter, just wanted to encourage a student!

[WidreMann]

Just now, SimeonNC said:

Idk how true this tweet is but it should put to rest all of the sampling talk if it is.

  

 

And yet we've seen it happen even within recent years. Can the satellites do as good a job as soundings?

[mstr4j]

2 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

I'm assuming a youth in HS. Fantastic to see youth interested in weather. Keep up the great work, and hopefully others at your school are interested. One of my fondest memories from HS 78-81 was a young boy with special needs that memorized the weather every day. There are lots of excellent weather sources here...follow your dreams. Hope you make a LOT of people happy this weekend!

sorry for the banter, just wanted to encourage a student!

Tony, though I act like a kid many times - I wish I still were - I'm a gradually wilting away adult that holds on to snow models that makes him feel young again!  HAHA!

[WxJordan]

This system has the opportunity to be the biggest storm this decade for many in western and possibly central NC.

While ratios will likely be under 10:1, the warm nose intrusion still worries me. It will be a few days before we are able to assess the extent of the warm nose and how it affects the estimated snow totals. Most of the time, you can count on the rain/snow line setting up around I-85, but it is impossible to discern where that will happen at the moment.

For me, it reminds me of the December 2009 storm, which had a very sharp gradient between rain and snow/sleet. I am keeping it conservative right now on the forecast, but areas in red has the best chance. Confidence decreases as I move into the piedmont. I think areas in yellow will also have a very good storm, it just depends on the warm nose and sleet mixing in.

[jburns]

 

OK, It is finally time to actually start a storm thread. From this point on please stay on topic as much as possible. There is a banter thread in which to fun post and a sanitarium thread if you need to vent.