December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[Wow]

Just now, ForsythWx said:

18z FV3 Kuchera ☃️

That's just obscene.  First a CAD induced storm, then the UL wraparound.  Snows from overnight Sat/Sun into Tuesday morning

[griteater]

So the 18z Euro is now in, but it only goes out to hr90...and it has improvements for the southern participants of the subforum

It's stronger and farther southwest with the shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low over the northeast states, and the confluent flow over the NE is a touch stronger thru the run.  Meanwhile, the backside wave looks like it would drop into the trough a little more than the 12z run (just guessing based on the look).  

At the end of the run at hr90, it has heavy precip in N GA with the sfc freezing line past Lake Lanier into NE side of Atlanta, and snow is breaking out in central and western NC into the NE upstate

 

[Cornsnow]

Just now, Wow said:

Not since Dec '89

The models are really going against all climatology here. It would be a super rare event if it occurs. I am still tempering my excitement. Still plenty of time for the to collapse in our faces. Hopefully we will be sampling the energy here tomorrow. Still hard for me to think an amped up storm like this will not have huge issues with WAA like always.

[Orangeburgwx]

Just now, griteater said:

So the 18z Euro is now in, but it only goes out to hr90...and it has improvements for the southern participants of the subforum

It's stronger and farther southwest with the shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low over the northeast states, and the confluent flow over the NE is a touch stronger thru the run.  Meanwhile, the backside wave looks like it would drop into the trough a little more than the 12z run (just guessing based on the look).  

At the end of the run at hr90, it has heavy precip in N GA with the sfc freezing line past Lake Lanier into NE side of Atlanta, and snow is breaking out in central and western NC into the NE upstate

 

"Southern participants"

 

Bring on 0z!

[Orangeburgwx]

Just now, Cornsnow said:

The models are really going against all climatology here. It would be a super rare event if it occurs. I am still tempering my excitement. Still plenty of time for the to collapse in our faces. Hopefully we will be sampling the energy here tomorrow. Still hard for me to think an amped up storm like this will not have huge issues with WAA like always.

Let's ignore climo and enjoy this LATE FALL snow

[HKY_WX]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

So the 18z Euro is now in, but it only goes out to hr90...and it has improvements for the southern participants of the subforum

It's stronger and farther southwest with the shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low over the northeast states, and the confluent flow over the NE is a touch stronger thru the run.  Meanwhile, the backside wave looks like it would drop into the trough a little more than the 12z run (just guessing based on the look).  

At the end of the run at hr90, it has heavy precip in N GA with the sfc freezing line past Lake Lanier into NE side of Atlanta, and snow is breaking out in central and western NC into the NE upstate

 

Just out of curiosity grit, where are you getting the 18z version?

[griteater]

Just now, HKY_WX said:

Just out of curiosity grit, where are you getting the 18z version?

StormVista

[Brick Tamland]

4 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

The models are really going against all climatology here. It would be a super rare event if it occurs. I am still tempering my excitement. Still plenty of time for the to collapse in our faces. Hopefully we will be sampling the energy here tomorrow. Still hard for me to think an amped up storm like this will not have huge issues with WAA like always.

We also saw a hurricane do something that has never been done before with Florence. 

[lilj4425]

Never thought I would see this trend south and colder.  Normally it does the opposite. Maybe the stars have finally aligned. Oh look...a meteor.  

[SteveVa]

18 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

I think me,@SteveVa and[mention=14849]SENC[/mention] are on the outside looking in on this one

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I could definitely see a front-end slushy inch or so for ORF and ECG. Something like the 18z FV3 depicts. There is also a possibility of frozen precip for our area on the back side, but models are still all over the place after the low pops into the Atlantic. AKQ is, unsurprisingly, fairly conservative and calls for all rain. 

[HKY_WX]

If you guys think these gfs maps are insane, just wait until we get into the NAM Hi-Res range lol... There will likely be some over-dramatic ridiculous totals on it.,..

[tramadoc]

I could definitely see a front-end slushy inch or so for ORF and ECG. Something like the 18z FV3 depicts. There is also a possibility of frozen precip for our area on the back side, but models are still all over the place after the low pops into the Atlantic. AKQ is, unsurprisingly, fairly conservative and calls for all rain. 

They’re normally quite conservative, at least if my memory serves me.


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[mckinnonwg]

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

StormVista

Weathermodels.com also hosts the 18z EURO

[+nao]

7 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

The models are really going against all climatology here. It would be a super rare event if it occurs. I am still tempering my excitement. Still plenty of time for the to collapse in our faces. Hopefully we will be sampling the energy here tomorrow. Still hard for me to think an amped up storm like this will not have huge issues with WAA like always.

Yep, has the Charlotte area ever seen this amount of winter weather being shown....? Not time for this here. 

[SteveVa]

1 minute ago, tramadoc said:

They’re normally quite conservative, at least if my memory serves me.


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Yup, just like most offices in the SE when it comes to winter weather. I was surprised to see that the NWS GSP map was legit, would never expect AKQ crew to do the same 

[phobos]

It's pretty quiet in the Atlanta news market..I hope they don't get caught with their pants down.

[Berlin1926]

RAH is lukewarm at best.  Maybe a few inches along the VA border; zilch everywhere else.  Are the model amounts typically this divorced from the local NWS office?

[Cornsnow]

1 minute ago, +nao said:

Yep, has the Charlotte area ever seen this amount of winter weather being shown....? Not time for this here. 

Yes I can remember 12 or 13 back in 2004. I have seen 8+ in my area in Mooresville. It could certainly verify. I would be shocked if it turns out to be a 12+ inches. Still plenty of times for the models to start a northerly trend over the next 24-36 hours.

[PackWxMan]

Yes, 2004. Thunder snow. I got 18in in CLT. The finest powder I have ever seen in my life falling from the heavens. It was UNREAL!

 

http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Publications/winter_Feb25_27_2004.php

[sarcean]

16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

This might be more realistic.

History has told me there is nothing realistic about Greensboro getting 23" but would love to see it 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the totals increased again farther south and east on the GFS.

[POWERSTROKE]

2 minutes ago, sarcean said:

History has told me there is nothing realistic about Greensboro getting 23" but would love to see it 

2000 Greensboro had 20 inches.  We went there and plowed.  Unreal

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like the totals increased again farther south and east on the GFS.

I'm pulling for those snow totals to increase all the way to the coast. I hate seeing the cutoff line running through our area. Good to have a cushion. 

[magpiemaniac]

6 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

RAH is lukewarm at best.  Maybe a few inches along the VA border; zilch everywhere else.  Are the model amounts typically this divorced from the local NWS office?

RAH always seems to be playing catch-up with GSP and RNK.

[+nao]

Yes big totals in Jan/Feb...not in early December 

[Will (little rock)]

Just now, tramadoc said:

Ban hammer incoming in 3... 2... 1...


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That was quick, nicely done mods lol

[tramadoc]

That was quick, nicely done mods lol

Very nicely done.


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[lilj4425]

Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Are you by chance using a weather vane or a weather vein?

It gives me 6-10 inches. I’m good though. I’ll just take a cold rain instead. Thanks.  

[jburns]

1 minute ago, Will (little rock) said:

That was quick, nicely done mods lol

Easy one.

[Wow]

Already banned and deleted.  When the mods and admins are weenies as well it gets fixed fast.