Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 definietely colder at 90 per soundings for W piedmont 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Plenty to nitpick, but this is a very consistent run vs. 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Great cad signature showing up with that 1035 HP setting up shop in Lake Placid, NY to funnel the cold down. Big snows breaking out for NC/SVA. Low now off East of Savannah, south of CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 yea at 90 soundings for clt look really good. took a bit to cool down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: soundings dont look as good thru 84 for kclt though. huh? Mid levels are like 3 deg colder in the mid levels.. not even close to a non-snow sounding 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Lookout said: after a ho hum run this morning, this run is pretty scary looking for northeast ga in terms of ice potential. 925mb temps plummet by sat evening....on the order -4 to 5c... with surface temps dropping below freezing by midnight or so,,,even down to the northeast burbs of atlanta with a lot of precip left to go. I’ve learned over the years to not too excited too far out. Sunday and Monday runs were interesting - now with the consistency and getting closer it’s hard not to start getting pumped up a bit lol. So far things are looking interesting for ne ga - if we can get some of the lower dewpoints in we could be in business. Side note - after 70 Sunday and a warm Monday currently it’s 35 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Much lighter precip in W NC and S VA this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 LEssprecip into my area looks colder and good for you CNC and WNC peeps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS blowing up all the convection around the low pressure this run at 96 off the coast. Always have to watch for the convective feedback where it won’t properly portray what the main precip field will look like but that is still some time away. Main takeaway is getting the details down of cad, LP placement etc before we get into that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Much colder run of the gfs. Hope that continues on future runs. It's also very fast with the wave compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Much less precip for WNC. Looked juicy at 84 and then went to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Much lighter precip in W NC and S VA this time around. It’s the gfs struggling bc of the convection flare up off the coast. Guarantee you once that is resolved it’ll be one hell of a comma head showing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Southern trend my friends 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: yea at 90 soundings for clt look really good. took a bit to cool down. That looks dry in the dendritic growth zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Having a hard time stomaching "much less/lighter" for a model run that still shows a foot of snow for referenced areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Best run I’ve seen from any model for the Charlotte crowd 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: Much less precip for WNC. Looked juicy at 84 and then went to nothing This will waffle around, no worries at this time. Anyway, it still a lot of precip, be it 1" or 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Warm nose, trying it's darndest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Too much separation between the ss and the ns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Much lighter precip in W NC and S VA this time around. ONLY 15 inches this round lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Warm nose, trying it's darndest: DGZ saturates there but yeah fighting the warm nose at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: Having a hard time stomaching "much less/lighter" for a model run that still shows a foot of snow for referenced areas. Cut back on QPF by about a half inch in most of NC compared to 12z, SC still on par with widespread >2" amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Cut back on QPF by about a half inch in most of NC compared to 12z, SC still on par with widespread >2" amounts. Wow. Even cutting back that QPF output is still insane. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 38 minutes ago, jburns said: Here's a reason for the difference in GSP and RAL. GSP The low subsequently will move across the Southeast Coastal Plain in a Miller A-type configuration. RAL low tracks along the Gulf coast/S GA/FL Panhandle, likely evolving into a Miller B configuration Sorry, I originally had that backwards. Fixed now. Too bad this winter storm can’t be named “Miller”! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: DGZ saturates there but yeah fighting the warm nose at that point. That’s ice cold for snow in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Maybe a touch less QPF but I'm only seeing the maps through Monday at 12z....still have the upper low to go by on Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Through hour 112 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 How is the sounding for RDU on the 18z? Should I ask? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Nice 1040 high on NAM is good for PLENTY of cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Don't get a chance to drop by too often but saw some ask about Euro snow maps from F5Weather. Definitely less with the totals further east where there will likely be more mixing issues. Also am attaching UKMET snow which is a more robust with the snow further east. Also UKMET is a severe ice storm for NEGA, Upstate of SC, and NC in the southern and eastern piedmont. Show over 1" of qpf falling as FZRA in Charlotte. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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