December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[Jonathan]

Dew points are 4+ degrees colder in a lot of places on the NAM

[burgertime]

Hour 84 looks like a beast.....doesn't look far off from the EURO. Certainly enough cold air across NC to get the job done...but of course GSP to CLT is the line. 

[sarcean]

Every model is saying RAH is being too conservative, this storm is REALLY going to catch some people by surprise. Guess they don't care about calling it safe since the event is on a weekend? 

[beanskip]

Interesting -- 850 temps LESS impressive, but dewpoints, surface temps colder. Sounds like an icy setup to this old coot. 

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Interesting -- 850 temps LESS impressive, but dewpoints, surface temps colder. Sounds like an icy setup to this old coot. 

Thickness looks better though, that should support snow taken verbatim no? 540 line is going down to CLT. Usually that's a good sign. 

[CentralNC]

Wow what a difference in AFD between RAH and GSP.  Not unusual.  RAH will play catch up like they always do.

[StormyClearweather]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Interesting -- 850 temps LESS impressive, but dewpoints, surface temps colder. Sounds like an icy setup to this old coot. 

Yeah, the dewpoints keep dropping even with precip falling. Maybe that happens, but it would stand to reason that temps would soon follow within the next frame or two. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Every model is saying RAH is being too conservative, this storm is REALLY going to catch some people by surprise. Guess they don't care about calling it safe since the event is on a weekend? 

IDK, The Weather Channel has been all in for a while, that usually gets the hype machine rolling

[BullCityWx]

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Hour 84 looks like a beast.....doesn't look far off from the EURO. Certainly enough cold air across NC to get the job done...but of course GSP to CLT is the line. 

If you gave me the crayons, I'd draw a map like that. 

[burrel2]

Nam is setting up for a major ice storm in Atlanta.

[WarmNose]

NAM was about to go to town at the end of that run. Deep entrenched wedge. DP’s looked fantastic

[Brick Tamland]

Dew points look good here.

 

[burgertime]

Just now, Queencitywx said:

If you gave me the crayons, I'd draw a map like that. 

Yep, wonder if I can talk my work into an emergency trip to Charlotte

[jjwxman]

Safe to say RAH is on a different planet. I don’t understand. 

Regardless of p-type, liquid
equivalents could range from three-quarters of an inch NE to around
an inch SW. 

And this:

 

[Lookout]

Just now, beanskip said:

Interesting -- 850 temps LESS impressive, but dewpoints, surface temps colder. Sounds like an icy setup to this old coot. 

after a ho hum run this morning,  this run is pretty scary looking for northeast ga in terms of ice potential. 925mb temps plummet by sat evening....on the order -4 to 5c... with surface temps dropping below freezing by midnight or so,,,even down to the northeast burbs of atlanta with a lot of precip left to go. 

 

 

[burgertime]

Maybe it's me being a total weenie but it's hard to just call the NAM in fantasy land when it's damn near lining up with the other models. Still a few days for thing to go in the crapper but that's a lot of damn consistency across models. Surely someone is going to get crushed. 

[burrel2]

NAM has Spartanburg, SC at 35/21 with a stout NE fetch on Saturday night before precip arrives. Game on

 

I fully expect the Upstate to bottom out around 27 or 28 degree's Sunday morning as the heaviest axis of precip comes through. 

[strongwxnc]

50 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Def agreed. My money would be somewhere between Concord and Charlotte is where that sleet/snow line sets and then probably between Rock Hill and CLT is the sleet/rain line. That's usually where it always sets up there. Whoever is on the sleet side of the snow sleet line is going to have a long weekend. 

Regardless of systems and setup you can draw a line over to Gastonia, Patterson springs, Shelby, souther rutherford county (over just south of HWY 74). The battle is real round here. 

 

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, Lookout said:

after a ho hum run this morning,  this run is pretty scary looking for northeast ga in terms of ice potential. 925mb temps plummet by sat evening....on the order -4 to 5c... with surface temps dropping below freezing by midnight or so,,,even down to the northeast burbs of atlanta with a lot of precip left to go. 

 

 

This is what I was worried about earlier with the 12z runs. Someone is going to get a bad ice storm out of this. This looks like a strong CAD setup on the models...with a lot of moisture so someone will get the brunt of this in a bad way. 

[BullCityWx]

4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Nam is setting up for a major ice storm in Atlanta.

KPDK down to 33 at Hour 84, as a matter of fact. Gainesville already below freezing and icing up at 84. 

[burgertime]

17 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Thanks for the pbp today Burger!  It's like old times.  We miss you around here.

Thanks, can't seem to shake it even thousands of miles away  

[AndyHamachek]

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

KPDK down to 33 at Hour 84, as a matter of fact. Gainesville already below freezing and icing up at 84. 

What about winder ga area and Athens ga area?  What day does the icing start

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

NAM has Spartanburg, SC at 35/21 with a stout NE fetch on Saturday night before precip arrives. Game on

32/20 for Rutherfordton at the same time! Bring it

 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Lookout said:

after a ho hum run this morning,  this run is pretty scary looking for northeast ga in terms of ice potential. 925mb temps plummet by sat evening....on the order -4 to 5c... with surface temps dropping below freezing by midnight or so,,,even down to the northeast burbs of atlanta with a lot of precip left to go. 

 

 

I think there will be major ice down to areas NE of ATL.  I’m not sure if it makes it into the Metro at all.  Especially given it would have to occur mid way through the event.  Most icing events in ATL are from the start of the precip or not at all

[Tony Sisk]

49 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'm getting pretty dang excited here. Keeping my expectations tempered that the upstate will undoubtedly be sleet for the majority of the storm, I'm going to say any snowfall accumulation will be a bonus in my book.  The sleet may really pile up though as I expect us to go from 33/34 Saturday evening quickly down in to the upper 20's as the heaviest precip moves in.

Get your popcorn ready for the 18z NAM, i'm betting it's going to be a doozy. 

The latest discussion from the GSP NWS...they are still being extremely cautious.

[BullCityWx]

First time for everything, I reckon.

[burgertime]

Both the 12z and 18z bring a1040 high down to Indiana. We need to keep an eye on that. If we get a stronger high reinforcing that cold air it really is game on for those in NC. 

[ryan1234]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think there will be major ice down to areas NE of ATL.  I’m not sure if it makes it into the Metro at all.  Especially given it would have to occur mid way through the event.  Most icing events in ATL are from the start of the precip or not at all

Question: Does Atlanta's higher elevation assist at all with wintry precip in these kinds of setups? Or is it a moot point? 

[DopplerWx]

this is a telling statement from nws gsp.

We are approaching increases in the
official fcst QPF cautiously since even modest snow ratios from
these values would result in snow/sleet accumulations that might
be a once-in-a-generation event for parts of the Piedmont.

[Bamabuilder86]

well I guess this is goodness news for those of us chasing from the south. Looks like we can go to Asheville and get hammered. That’s a lot better roads and infrastructure compared to other places further north we were considering. Hope it holds.