Amos83 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 One thing to take note of too, is many times with the super juiced up el nino driven storms precip breaks out way ahead of the main system. UKMET seems to be hinting at it. Notice the finger pointing directly at WSC and WNC. Could mean the precip starts a little sooner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I really believe this event has every chance of being the snow equivalent to Florence. If things hold, alarms need to start being sounded tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 This is huge if it goes down like this, still not sure we're done with changes such a delicate setup with NS energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 All the models showing a high impact event for most of NC, Raleigh and to the west. Still have three days to go, though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: I really believe this event has every chance of being the snow equivalent to Florence. If things hold, alarms need to start being sounded tomorrow. don't jinx it man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Amos83 said: One thing to take note of too, is many times with the super juiced up el nino driven storms precip breaks out way ahead of the main system. UKMET seems to be hinting at it. Notice the finger pointing directly at WSC and WNC. Could mean the precip starts a little sooner Yup, seen that finger many times in these events. I wouldn’t be shocked to see timing sped up on this thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, griteater said: 30 inches of clown snow for snowniner 15-18” for me! That Oconee County snowhole, in full effect! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We’re talking about totals around a lot of western NC that hasn’t been seen in many places since the 93 blizzard. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 850mb low track is central MS to Wilmington on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, griteater said: 30 inches of clown snow for snowniner I only get 12-15 while five miles down the road gets almost 24-30 TOSS!!! JK thanks for your input this week it feels like the good ole days with burgar doing pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, jburns said: I intend too as soon as we reach the time to start a storm thread. I like em Medium Rare! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Amos83 said: One thing to take note of too, is many times with the super juiced up el nino driven storms precip breaks out way ahead of the main system. UKMET seems to be hinting at it. Notice the finger pointing directly at WSC and WNC. Could mean the precip starts a little sooner I’ve seen it come in 8-10 hours early ! Since I think the arrival time was around 4-6 pm around GSP, this would start it in the morning and not have any chance to warm Saturday! Could really help a lot, 2-4 degrees can make a monumental difference! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: We’re talking about totals around a lot of western NC that hasn’t been seen in many places since the 93 blizzard. Yes, obviously going to be a huge storm but everyone has to keep in mind there WILL be some aspect of the storm not modeled correctly. Cold air, timing, track, phase. Something will throw curveballs. I think we all have learned to cast a weary eye at the clowns. Not trying to damper but we have seen it so often. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, griteater said: 30 inches of clown snow for snowniner Interesting that it's picking up a lee side minimum 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, CentralNC said: Yes, obviously going to be a huge storm but everyone has to keep in mind there WILL be some aspect of the storm not modeled correctly. Cold air, timing, track, phase. Something will throw curveballs. I think we all have learned to cast a weary eye at the clowns. Not trying to damper but we have seen it so often. I can see some gulf coast convection robbing moisture with this setup but QPF doesn't look like an issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, griteater said: 850mb low track is central MS to Wilmington on the Euro any 850 track south and east of the triangle cannot be all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: I can see some gulf coast convection robbing moisture with this setup but QPF doesn't look like an issue Could also aid moisture transport (not that it’s really needed in this setup) if you have a positive tilt to it. But those things are a nowcast issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 34 minutes ago, burgertime said: Well...well...well....but big caveat here this is all dependent on enough cold air for snow. If you believe Euro at face value this would be raging ZR/IP storm. The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought. The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there. Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, griteater said: 850mb low track is central MS to Wilmington on the Euro Thats the key, ticket right there to glory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Only seeing subtle changes now with timing and placement of the trailing Ns vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wow said: Interesting that it's picking up a lee side minimum Yeah, that's definitely not a favorite feature of mine. I'm not sure why it's doing that either. When the moisture comes from the south, the mountains shouldn't have the effect that they do when it comes from the west or northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtgus Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Snow flurries here in Gibsonville, NC around 1:30pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: Yeah, that's definitely not a favorite feature of mine. I'm not sure why it's doing that either. When the moisture comes from the south, the mountains shouldn't have the effect that they do when it comes from the west or northwest. I've always thought the south mountains always helped with lift I could be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 30 minutes ago, burgertime said: Storm keeps going until Tuesday. Somewhere around GSO gets 18-21 inches if it were all snow. I would take that in a heart beat. Would be an incredible storm. I've lived in Greensboro since 2005 and never remember over 10 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The only question here appears to be what will the temps be during the event. I think the CAD could end up being stronger than modeled here, which would give us more frozen precip. I don't think it will be all snow, but will mix at times with sleet and freezing rain, but I could see it end up being more frozen precip than rain. A degree or two can make all the difference, as well as where exactly you are located when it comes to Wake County. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyHamachek Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought. The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there. Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does I live in Athens ga all local Mets on tv are saying is rain and possibly extreme northeast ga mountains could see winter mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought. The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there. Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does I've seen many times places like Atlanta/Athens/Columbia/Pee Dee of SC have to catch up on freezing rain in these events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 42 minutes ago, burgertime said: Well...well...well....but big caveat here this is all dependent on enough cold air for snow. If you believe Euro at face value this would be raging ZR/IP storm. 2-4" band for me this time, I would take that even if it is all sleet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Of course the Euro is beautiful, but we still had north trends on the before rock-solid FV3 and the wishy washy Canadian. I don't like that all of a sudden we have this northern stream energy to throw a wrench in this deal. That's going to cause madness the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: The only question here appears to be what will the temps be during the event. I think the CAD could end up being stronger than modeled here, which would give us more frozen precip. I don't think it will be all snow, but will mix at times with sleet and freezing rain, but I could see it end up being more frozen precip than rain. A degree or two can make all the difference, as well as where exactly you are located when it comes to Wake County. These storms are always why I am happy to be close to the Wake/Franklin line. Always seems we do well. Mixed bag for us for sure @Brick Tamland going off what I’ve seen so far. I think it’s going to be a mess here by Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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