HKY_WX Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks pretty similar to me, prob a slightly colder look given the STJ s/w is further south. Some of you guys don't know how to read a model lol. 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 ...and it has not trended north. The 50/50 low continued to trend stronger .. It's further south compared to prev run 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:52 PM, HurricaneTracker said: Frankly looks very close to current operational GFS. Expand Low is further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:52 PM, Waiting on snow said: You're going to need a lot of rest when this is over. You're getting a hell of a workout climbing up and down the cliff. Expand Burning calories im going to restock on Christmas! XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:53 PM, HKY_WX said: Looks pretty similar to me, prob a slightly colder look given the STJ s/w is further south. Some of you guys don't know how to read a model lol. Expand Like the euro PBP last night? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like an I-85 special 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 This SHOULD be a good run for even Charlotte when this thing ever loads. Gonna be a beaut for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Don't look at the precipitation shield when comparing runs, people. Look at the MSLP and 500 mb charts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:56 PM, Queencitywx said: Like the euro PBP last night? Expand You can say what you want Jeremy but the EURO was much further north and 4-5 degrees warmer across the board. It was 3am and I was squinting at a cellphone. Totals cut, temps higher, more phasing. It was "OK" but it wasn't pretty or a continuation of our "southern slider" it'd previously been showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 is fine, the low is going to gravitate towards the Huntsville/Knoxville area a little before the transfer because of the CAD forming lower pressures on the OTHER side of the Apps... One more thing to think about is the overall pressure field remains similar, but that little "L" icon is going to shift. It's there because Levi's or whoever's code puts that L at every local minimum... and in a transfer like this, that could be a lot of areas! Run to run, the "L" could jump by hundreds of miles, but in the grand scheme of things, it's probably not a big shift. It's a psychological thing! Be careful! 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Site freezing for anyone else? I imagine the server is getting hit pretty hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Almost as much as I would love to see a historic snow, I would also love to see the Mods really begin to start really hone in on some of these nonsense posts. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:58 PM, Buddy1987 said: Lmao!! FV3 has our low at 96 visiting Tampa Expand The southeast trend is real folks - you heard it here first 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Does anyone have insight as to why the FV3 has had problems loading the last couple of days? Bothersome when its supposed to go operational any day now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:59 PM, ILMRoss said: FV3 is fine, the low is going to gravitate towards the Huntsville/Knoxville area a little before the transfer because of the CAD forming lower pressures on the OTHER side of the Apps... One more thing to think about is the overall pressure field remains similar, but that little "L" icon is going to shift. It's there because Levi's or whoever's code puts that L at every local minimum... and in a transfer like this, that could be a lot of areas! Run to run, the "L" could jump by hundreds of miles, but in the grand scheme of things, it's probably not a big shift. It's a psychological thing! Expand Good point, sir. I am guilty of "quickly" rushing through surface output rather than MSLP anomalies, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 5:00 PM, ajr said: The southeast trend is real folks - you heard it here first Expand No in all reality though you can see the enhanced precip in between CHS and MYR. That should be our new low popping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 5:00 PM, Jet Stream Rider said: Does anyone have insight as to why the FV3 has had problems loading the last couple of days? Bothersome when its supposed to go operational any day now, right? Expand You'd think it'd be better as we approach January when it takes over. I guess we wait til 5:00PM for frame hr102. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The UKMET tracks low south along the Gulf coast and then fairly far offshore the SE coast thereafter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Well...??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 5:00 PM, Jet Stream Rider said: Does anyone have insight as to why the FV3 has had problems loading the last couple of days? Bothersome when its supposed to go operational any day now, right? Expand Feel bad for poor Hour 84 -- always seems to get skipped over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The 12Z GEFS snow mean looks virtually identical to previous runs to me. 10-15" on the means from I 85 west in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 does look a little warm around the US 74 corridor this time. Might be sleet in Charlotte proper over to Gastonia at hour 96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looking at the h5 mean on the gets it's closer to a phase than the OP. Might be something to keep an eye on in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 5:13 PM, Queencitywx said: FV3 does look a little warm around the US 74 corridor this time. Might be sleet in Charlotte proper over to Gastonia at hour 96. Expand Excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 finally updated -- doesn't lock in the 850s like 6z run. EDIT: Not a giant change or anything -- mainly at hours 108 and 114 a bit of a retreat from 6z run. Still plenty of frozen before then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 5:18 PM, lilj4425 said: Excellent. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 5:11 PM, lilj4425 said: Well...??? Expand You still get cold rain, don’t worry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not much change in max snow totals on GEFS mean but they did expand and cover more ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 5:20 PM, lilj4425 said: Let the cliff diving commence. Expand You can keep that in banter or get your posts hid. your choice. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV 3 Kuchera...not as robust as the GFS but still a good storm (thank you, captain obvious!) 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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