wake4est Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Is the FV3 recognizing a stronger CAD than the old-n-busted GFS? If so that will be a nice upgrade in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, wake4est said: Boom Got the one for south of there? For S.C., Georgia, and Tennessee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6z FV3 holding steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 So even with some positive Euro totals overnight, it started to waffle around with phasing and bringing the whole system north. Now I see my forecast for the triad has gone to three straight days of freezing rain in the Triad. 3 days!! I really hope that we arent on a razers edge with strong CAD, a crappy storm track and a month of power outages. But I am afraid somebody, more likely south of me, should be investing in a generator. On a brighter note, FV3 says calm down Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 How did the eps and gefs look overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, wake4est said: Is the FV3 recognizing a stronger CAD than the old-n-busted GFS? If so that will be a nice upgrade in itself. Neither model is as cold as the NAM at the outset, but they're cold enough to get the job done. We're still going to need to wait a few cycles before we can confirm if the NAM's thermal profile is closer to reality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Got the one for south of there? For S.C., Georgia, and Tennessee? sure 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The rubber meets the road on this one fellas by figuring out at what point the phase happens. Later is better. Need the 850 low to stay underneath us and then phase off the SE coast and ride on out to sea. Also I know the Cad will be foretasted to warm on the global s. As everyone has learned and pointed out watch the hi res models (Nam) for the 2m and thermal profile trends as we work our way inside 4 days now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The strength of the CAD will be the one of the key players in this, the other being the mid-level warm air that will sneak in. This will not be correctly modeled until 24-48 hours before go time probably. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: How did the eps and gefs look overnight Stole this EPS map from the MA forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: Stole this EPS map from the MA forum. Still looks like about a 10" Mean for MBY. Dont like the trend of the Euro and EPS overnight though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Still looks like about a 10" Mean for MBY. Dont like the trend of the Euro and EPS overnight though... To me, the maps look better and more expansive. What don't you like? The lower totals overall? More realistic I think. There WILL be mixing with this storm. I didn't stay up so I'm just basing this on what I see this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The strength of the CAD will be the one of the key players in this, the other being the mid-level warm air that will sneak in. This will not be correctly modeled until 24-48 hours before go time probably. Once the 3km NAM is in range we'll have a better idea. It's usually spot on with precipitation type with wedges 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I'm hearing a lot of talk about the EURO moving "north" overnight. From what I can tell, it takes the same basic southerly track along the Gulf Coast to off the SE coast as before. Any northward adjustment seems to be in relation to how far north it climbs the coast before exiting out to sea, which should have little bearing on the Saturday night/Sunday portion of the storm. So long as the track remains off the SE coast to Hatteras, I don't really care what it does thereafter. Just my 2 cent. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 how were the 6z ensembles? I think there still relevant another day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: To me, the maps look better and more expansive. What don't you like? The lower totals overall? More realistic I think. There WILL be mixing with this storm. I didn't stay up so I'm just basing this on what I see this morning. I guess I didnt like the fact of the Euro and EPS taking that north trend, but maybe it wont have much affect on us? Truthfully, maybe it's just riding the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 NWS Columbia SC .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...The main concern during the medium-range period is a possibilityof a wintry precipitation mix.Surface high pressure will extend from the Midwest into the mid-Atlantic region over the weekend. this ridge of high pressure willdirect a cold northerly flow into the forecast area. Low pressurealong the western and central Gulf Coast Saturday will movenortheast and be off the Southeast Coast Sunday and Monday. The GFSand ECMWF and most of the ensemble guidance exhibit this generalpattern but with enough inconsistency in the surface and upperfeatures for a low confidence precipitation-type forecast.Moisture ahead of the Gulf Coast system will be moving into theforecast area Friday night. The GFS and ECMWF show the significantlift remaining west of the area through the night. The airmass willbe initially dry and it may take most of the night to saturate, sohave continued a chance for rain late Friday night. Forecastsoundings were consistent indicating liquid precipitation.The moisture should become deep Saturday ahead of the Gulfsystem. Isentropic lift will also be on the increase. The GFSand ECMWF MOS have trended higher with likely or categoricalpops. The moisture will likely remain high through Monday.However, there may be a mid-level dry slot which the modelshave shown affecting the area mainly Sunday and Sunday night whichfurther complicates the forecast. The deterministic GFS andECMWF forecast soundings have generally indicated liquidprecipitation throughout the area Saturday and Saturday nightexcept the soundings indicate a rain and sleet mix in theextreme north part Saturday night into Sunday then some warmingas the low nears the area. More cooling will likely occur as thelow shifts eastward and the cold upper system moves into thearea. We have forecasted a rain and snow mix in the northwestpart Sunday night and Monday.A considerable number of GFS and ECMWF ensemble members supportperiods of frozen precipitation in the north. Most but not allmembers have liquid precipitation in the south. There have beendifferences with respect to the development of a mid-level cut-off low and in its position. A farther south track of a strongupper system would indicate a threat of winter precipitationeven in the Central Savannah River Area. The threat in the southshould hold off longer and depend on the upper system Monday.Based on the ensemble guidance at this time, we believe thethreat of significant winter precipitation during the Saturdaynight to Monday time frame is about 40 percent in LancasterCounty in the north to just 5 to 10 percent farther south in theColumbia to Augusta areas.High temperatures will be in the 40s Saturday through Monday. Thestorm system is expected to lift out of the area Monday night withdry conditions returning Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will moderate intothe upper 40s and 50s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FYI, here is my forecast i'm giving my friends & family for Upstate SC, if anyone cares to read. (disclaimer-I'm no expert) My thoughts on the storm at this point: I'm thinking light rain/snow mix breaks out Saturday afternoon across the upstate, quickly mixing with and switching to sleet. I think the pre-dominate precipitation type will be sleet from Clemson to Greenville to Charlotte, with 1 to 4 inches of sleet/snow accumulations. The heaviest sleet accumulations will occur overnight Saturday through Sunday morning as temps bottom out around around 28 to 30 degree's. South of there precip will start off as rain and switch to freezing rain late Saturday night, the possibility exists for significant ice accretions with power outages in a band from elberton to greenwood to rock hill. For the far northern upstate in to the mountains, a significant portion of the storm should be snow leading to 6 to 12 inches of accumulations, with 12 to 20 inch totals in the mountains above 2000 feet. There should be on and off snow showers Sunday evening through Monday morning across the entire region, doubt anything from this sticks with marginal surface temps, but some lucky people could pick up a quick few inches under any heavy banding features, including places in the southern upstate. (but I wouldn't count on it) FYI: we're still 4 days out and things could change drastically. This is just my best guess at the moment. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The 6z ICON (compared to 0z) shifted the heaviest snow totals from western NC into SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The 6z ICON (compared to 0z) shifted the heaviest snow totals from western NC into SW VA. Looks like the 6Z Navgem did as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 31 minutes ago, tazaroo said: how were the 6z ensembles? I think there still relevant another day or so The GEFS was a step South again. If the Euro makes a small adjustment south at 12z, I'd say the Triad is all systems go for a historic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The typical shifts north are happening now, I expect more shifts north the next few days. Roanoke to Lexington VA is in a great spot. DC will likely get more snow than places lile Greensboro. We are losing the conflunce.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yeah, the GEFS mean snowfall still focuses the highest totals over WRN NC/SW VA. Widespread 10-15" amounts from I-85 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The GEFS was a step South again. If the Euro makes a small adjustment south at 12z, I'd say the Triad is all systems go for a historic storm. Sure did. So we had some models shift north while the GEFS ensemble shifted south. Just tells us we have more model watching to do... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The Euro has it changing to rain Sunday evening even up here in Danville,VA and staying rain until the backside swings through Monday evening. It has 6 to 8 on the front end then rain then another 3 to 5 with the deform band/pivot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The typical shifts north are happening now, I expect more shifts north the next few days. Roanoke to Lexington VA is in a great spot. DC will likely get more snow than places lile Greensboro. We are losing the conflunce.. GFS and it’s ensembles came south at 6Z. It’s all noise right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: GFS and it’s ensembles came south at 6Z. It’s all noise right now. If euro looks similar or further north at 12z it definitely is trending.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Basically the models showing the weaker highs have more North movement still. So pretty much the same thing we have been tracking for the last week. I'll be watching the short range models more today to see how the high is developing out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We need to stop living and dying by each model run. A variety of solutions are on the table and it’s impossible to nail this far out . Long way to go before anybody reels anything in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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