December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[SouthernVAwx]

2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I'm not sure if this really matches the model, but I believe this is based on the Kuchera method, FWIW:

Pretty sure that is 10:1 ratio.

[downeastnc]

Just now, SLAMSTORM22 said:

I live in NC. Just updated my profile. (feel free to move this to banter) 

Then get use to it cause this is how it is every single time a storm comes around in the SE forum........the same core group post the same way every single model run.......with gaggles of lurkers asking MBY questions......it is what it is.....

[BornAgain13]

Kinda crazy after that weird run and I still end up with around 20" lol... this storm has so much moisture.

[SnowNiner]

3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I'm not sure if this really matches the model, but I believe this is based on the Kuchera method, FWIW:

Yeah I noticed the model output doesn't seem to reflect the snowfall output, even the Kuchera map.  I don't know why.  I like the pretty maps though....even in a "bad" run I'm getting nice clown maps.  

[BornAgain13]

Does anyone know what the snow ratios will be in southern va? Maybe 9:1-10:1?

[Poimen]

4 minutes ago, SouthernVAwx said:

Pretty sure that is 10:1 ratio.

I thought so, too. But it matches with the Kuchera map from Pivotal. 

[Disc]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Does anyone know what the snow ratios will be in southern va? Maybe 9:1-10:1?

Too far out to even begin discussing this honestly. We are still trying to nail down a track. 

[Chubbiegull]

Just now, Disc said:

Too far out to even begin discussing this honestly. We are still trying to nail down a track. 

Listen to this man

[Disc]

10 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I'm not sure if this really matches the model, but I believe this is based on the Kuchera method, FWIW:

Correct. This is Kuchera. It at least tones down on the absurd totals to the east. 

 

[ILMRoss]

18z got derailed very early on, when configuration of the parent shortwave got pushed *way* more positive over the southwest. This kind of put a positive slant on the s/w for the rest of the run and to me, really tampered with the dynamics, and created less qpf. Is it possible? I mean sure, but I'm not putting much stock in this particular iteration

[Poimen]

Looking at the GFS, it seems as if the model is indicating dynamical cooling over the NC Piedmont at the onset...note how the 850 temps  cool over central NC from west to east overnight Saturday/Sunday morning, forming a pocket of below zero temps cutoff from warmer temps to the north. 

Just something interesting to me.

 

 

[Orangeburgwx]

I'm putting the 18z in the "toss" bin

[Rankin5150]

5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Looking at the GFS, it seems as if the model is indicating dynamical cooling over the NC Piedmont at the onset...note how the 850 temps  cool over central NC from west to east overnight Saturday/Sunday morning, forming a pocket of below zero temps cutoff from warmer temps to the north. 

Just something interesting to me.

 

 

Poimen, 

Thanks for all your contributions. I really have picked up bits and pieces from you, as well as many others over the years. Good observation!

[Disco Lemonade]

GEFS is slower, maybe a touch south in some spots.

[SouthernVAwx]

Let’s have a moment of silence for the GFSFV3, it has failed to initialize after a very poor 12z load time.

[Wow]

18z GEFS is the wettest mean yet. Here's a trend loop: 

[Rankin5150]

6 minutes ago, Weatherman23 said:

Hey everyone, glad to be a part of the forum, anyone think SE VA could see a little snow with this system?

WELCOME to the Family! There is a ton of great persons in here. You will enjoy it!

 

[Upstatescweather]

Love when news 4 Chris justice says mainly north of 85 but models show it south on his screen then says models show it south but not likely not even 5 miles south of it. Classic, just keep ticking a little south to give me a realistic shot at some white stuff

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

2 minutes ago, Upstatescweather said:

Love when news 4 Chris justice says mainly north of 85 but models show it south on his screen then says models show it south but not likely not even 5 miles south of it. Classic, just keep ticking a little south to give me a realistic shot at some white stuff

He's basing it off of climo telling him the 85 corridor is nearly always the freezing despite what the models say. 

[jjwxman]

18z GFS: You know where TT has rain, weathernerds.org is mixed, especially the I-85 corridor.  

[BullCityWx]

13 minutes ago, Wow said:

18z GEFS is the wettest mean yet. Here's a trend loop: 

Snow numbers up, too.

[kvegas-wx]

Lanie Pope goes with a 10-30% chance of accumulating snow over the WXII coverage area.  Last time I checked their coverage area includes a few tall thingies called mountains!?!  She may want to update that slightly for the 11pm broadcast.

[Disco Lemonade]

Interesting, GEFS really stalls it out.

High really has the "banana" look 

[oconeexman]

10 minutes ago, Upstatescweather said:

Love when news 4 Chris justice says mainly north of 85 but models show it south on his screen then says models show it south but not likely not even 5 miles south of it. Classic, just keep ticking a little south to give me a realistic shot at some white stuff

With the CAD being the source of cold air typically I85 is the cut off give or take 10 miles. It depends on the strength and placement of the High. Hopefully it trends a little further south which helps me being NW of 85

[DC2Winston]

5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Lanie Pope goes with a 10-30% chance of accumulating snow over the WXII coverage area.  Last time I checked their coverage area includes a few tall thingies called mountains!?!  She may want to update that slightly for the 11pm broadcast.

Maybe that we’re still D4 out? But I hear you, pretty conservative even at this lead time given the model consistency since Sunday. 

[hickory]

Just now, kvegas-wx said:

Lanie Pope goes with a 10-30% chance of accumulating snow over the WXII coverage area.  Last time I checked their coverage area includes a few tall thingies called mountains!?!  She may want to update that slightly for the 11pm broadcast.

She is being conservative, but I like the way things look for us in the triad. Especially Greensboro north and west of there. The last time I saw over a foot was when I lived in High Point, during the Feb 26-27 2004 winter storm with 16 inches. Will this storm produce? Maybe..... only time will tell. 

[Wow]

8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Snow numbers up, too.

Yes, since 12z.  Similar to 6z

[Wow]

Quite a few wild snow maps out of the 18z GEFS

[strongwxnc]

Quite a few wild snow maps out of the 18z GEFS

That mean is crazy! Wow.


.

[ILMRoss]

11 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Lanie Pope goes with a 10-30% chance of accumulating snow over the WXII coverage area.  Last time I checked their coverage area includes a few tall thingies called mountains!?!  She may want to update that slightly for the 11pm broadcast.

There's also counties in that dma that are pretty far south of the triad. I think she is being a little conservative but it goes without saying that a full fledged "omg it's going to snow" message would freak people out, and if that forecast is blown less people may watch that station. There is palpable pressure, from the sales department to the news director, to have this right. Before I got into broadcast, I thought, "oh hue hue hue I'm going to be brazen and I'll speak my mind!" but it's *a lot* harder said than done.