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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Orangeburgwx

By Orangeburgwx,
in Southeastern States

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, oconeexman said:

Wow jackpot over NEGa's house for areas not in NC! My snow hole shrunk considerably to a county wide 6-12". Lots of wild runs for a couple more days then some fine tuning.

Yes I am here and have been reading, just not much to add yet lol.  I just saw the maps wow is all I can say.  Normally I would be giving a chance this early a big no go, but after last years (I think dec 8 or 9?) big early snow I guess it can happen.  I have seen too many of these end in disaster as we get closer (although so far so good) so I am just sort of watching and waiting.

 I will say that one concern is the huge amount of QPF in that if we end up with more ice over snow, if it is coming down hard enough it would be less likely to accumulate and/or latent heat release would raise the temp just above freezing.  Some of the amounts showing up are just outrageous and I have a hard time believing it.  Of course even half or a fraction would be a good dumping 

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Brick Tamland
Brick Tamland

Who is ready for Carolina Crusher 2: Snow Boogaloo?!?!

msuwx
msuwx

Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend.  In other words, multi

beanskip
beanskip

Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Weather  boards 20 years ago and we have neve

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Tony Sisk

Tony Sisk

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

That’s not how damming works! CAD cold air comes from VA, and mountains don’t block it, they help it funnel down

Uh, you missed the point. It's all about the placement of the High. Yes, "damming is when the cold air is funneled along the eastern slopes of the mountains. That is a very good thing. The poster is correct though...if the high is too far north and west, the cold air has to go over the mountains....not funneled down the eastern slope. 

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, cwick20 said:

Burrell and Oconeexman, how do you feel about the dreaded warm nose that seems to get us with every storm. Seems to be showing it's ugly head again doesn't it? Western Oconee county and eastern Pickens county seem to be on the lower totals as usual with areas just to our east and west doing much better.

I'm not concerned. The Euro isn't showing a lee-side warm bubble from northwest flow over the mountains, as that's not where our cold air is coming from in this setup. 925mb temps are actually at their coldest on an axis through this area for our storm. (Thanks to CAD).  It's a big reason we wind up getting mostly sleet in freezing rain events while places around us get more freezing rain.

I think the euro snow map has a bubble over Oconee county simply b/c it's showing surface temps at 33 degree's there for 5 or 6 hours while surrounding area's are 32/31.  I've seen this before in CAD set ups, especially as the CAD is first coming in, it gets to places like anderson/hartwell a little faster than that small area over Oconee, but it's nothing to worry about right now. It will wind up being largely over-done, imo, (assuming the general depiction is right).

However, it is yet another reason why that small geographic area is literally the worst place you can live for winter weather.

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'm not concerned. The Euro isn't showing a lee-side warm bubble from northwest flow over the mountains, as that's not where our cold air is coming from. 925mb temps are actually at their coldest on an axis through this area for our storm. (Thanks to CAD).  It's a big reason we wind up getting mostly sleet in freezing rain events while places around us get more freezing rain.

I think the euro snow map has a bubble over Oconee county simply b/c it's showing surface temps at 33 degree's there for 5 or 6 hours while surrounding area's are 32/31.  I've seen this before in CAD set ups, especially as the CAD is first coming in, it's gets to places like anderson/hartwell a little faster than that small area over Oconee, but it's nothing to worry about right now. It will wind up being largely over-done, imo, (assuming the general depiction is right).

However, it is yet another reason why that small geographic area is literally the worst place you can live for winter weather.

if the gfs is correct w/ the lp location then the warm nose would def mess with you guys. sounding in the midst of the precip shows it.

gfs_2018120412_fh114_sounding_KGSP.png

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, rduwx said:

Based on the 12z Euro there is between a 80% and 90% chance Wake County receives 1" of snow.

Yeah this is one we will have to chase if we want to see snow. It is always tough because there is basically one good chance in this region at best per winter except on rare occasions. I would sneak over to GSO  at least.

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, cwick20 said:

Burrell and Oconeexman, how do you feel about the dreaded warm nose that seems to get us with every storm. Seems to be showing it's ugly head again doesn't it? Western Oconee county and eastern Pickens county seem to be on the lower totals as usual with areas just to our east and west doing much better.

That bubble is absolutely intolerable and always shows up. It's basically a product of that area being surrounded; NE, N, NW, and W of higher mtns, PLUS, being so far west of the CAD highs, it literally takes forever to cool off. It usually results in a ton more mixing or even just rain. It's maddening to be in that and get next to nothing while everyone around can get a lot. Did you notice the snow home over Lake Jocassee on the clown map? 2-4 while just a few miles east in the 20+! Hopefully the cold press will be stronger and close that gap up!

 

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SENC

SENC

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, tramadoc said:


If that were a temperature forecast I’d be okay. 70” of rain in a calendar year for a non-tropical area is bonkers


.

@tramadoc, Here in the Wilm area We are at, (as of Dec 3rd) SINCE JAN 1 95.83 INCHES YTD ,,, NORMAL VALUES are 54.34" With "Departure from "Normal" is 41.49" inches

This incoming Storm Should put Us (almost) over the 100" inches for YTD... If this is the New "normal",,,, Maybe,, I should consider growing RICE next year.. ;)

Think, (I looked this up),,  Colon, Panama averages around 98 inches per year.. 

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ryan1234

ryan1234

Posted
Posted

I really hope that, for once, the majority of us can score a decent snow this go around. I’m just over the Mecklenburg County line, near Matthews. So I know the frustrations of being east of I-85. If the Euro is to believed, I think a lot of us will be beyond ecstatic. I’d love to see snow all the way down to the midlands, the Atlanta area, and well into the Sandhills. I truly wish everyone on this board the best!


.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

The euro has caved with regards to Ice. It now has a strong wedge/ZR cone down into Athens GA. I look for this to expand over the next several days. The cold air source isn't overwhelming given we are so early in the year, however the position of the HP is pretty much ideal. So that in and of itself will generate enough ENE/NE winds to funnel dry/cold air down to cause ZR at 30-32*. Image effect 9PM Sunday... Also on a few frames I noticed the IP line inching towards hickory/Greensboro. Once again, that will impact totals in those areas like always. It will turn a 24 inch storm into a 10inch storm.... IP has been the ruin of many potential historical totals in the southern/Central Foothills/Triad. NW of that line and above 2500 ft..... The sky is the limit on this one...

 

 

 

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

if the gfs is correct w/ the lp location then the warm nose would def mess with you guys. sounding in the midst of the precip shows it.

gfs_2018120412_fh114_sounding_KGSP.png

Yea, the warm nose coming up from the gulf would... but that's not the lee side "warm bubble" he's referring to, and doesn't explain the minima bubble on the Euro.

 

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FlatLander48

FlatLander48

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

I just moved down here from Suffolk County. I was there for the 11/15 event and am most prepared with all of the big snows NY has received over the past 10 years. :)

 

Just remember, people down here become idiotic really quick when it snows compared to up there lol.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The euro has caved with regards to Ice. It now has a strong wedge/ZR cone down into Athens GA. I look for this to expand over the next several days. The cold air source isn't overwhelming given we are so early in the year, however the position of the HP is pretty much ideal. So that in and of itself will generate enough ENE/NE winds to funnel dry/cold air down to cause ZR at 30-32*. Image effect 9PM Sunday... Also on a few frames I noticed the IP line inching towards hickory/Greensboro. Once again, that will impact totals in those areas like always. It will turn a 24 inch storm into a 10inch storm.... IP has been the ruin of many potential historical totals in the southern/Central Foothills/Triad. NW of that line and above 2500 ft..... The sky is the limit on this one...

 

 

 

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2.png

Lookout, you knew this was coming and will get worse!

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GreensboroWx

GreensboroWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jburns said:

Raleigh NWS is basically forecasting a rain event here with some flakes for a few hours.

Weather Channel has 6-10"

Some models have snowmageddon.

So my forecast calls for significant WTF.

 

As you well know, the NWS is going to be very conservative. Read their AFD...that's actually about as aggressive as you'll see several hours out. Anyway, why even look at their point forecast, you'll always be disappointed. All indicators point to a significant winter weather event for the Triad. 

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said:

As you well know, the NWS is going to be very conservative. Read their AFD...that's actually about as aggressive as you'll see several hours out. Anyway, why even look at their point forecast, you'll always be disappointed. All indicators point to a significant winter weather event for the Triad. 

Yep, I do know that. But I am supposed to make storm preparations and I don't know whether to buy a snowmobile or a rowboat. :)

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