December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[Iceagewhereartthou]

3 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Hard to believe that ever since this storm showed up on the models that Cherokee and Graham Counties has been shown to get nothing. 

Yeah, those counties and western upstate and NEGA seem to always have heartbreak with these CAD setups. By the time the cold gets this far SW the precip has passed and everybody to our north and east gets the big snows. It's really hard to take in the Ellicott rock area.

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah, those counties and western upstate and NEGA seem to always have heartbreak with these CAD setups. By the time the cold gets this far SW the precip has passed and everybody to our north and east gets the big snows. It's really hard to take in the Ellicott rock area.

It’s worse if you’re waiting on the cold to come over the mountains!! I can work with this! I think we get a lot of slop from this, but not all rain!

[Amos83]

As long as we can keep the low just on the coast or slightly off it we should do really well with this. It is going to be a monster QPF producer and the CAD will hopefully trend a bit stronger as we get closer (more like what the NAM is starting to show). Glad I moved from east of 85 over to Mooresville, might payoff big time for this one.

[BullCityWx]

Just now, Amos83 said:

As long as we can keep the low just on the coast or slightly off it we should do really well with this. It is going to be a monster QPF producer and the CAD will hopefully trend a bit stronger as we get closer (more like what the NAM is starting to show). Glad I moved from east of 85 over to Mooresville, might payoff big time for this one.

I think you'll do well. What part of town are you in?

[griteater]

FV3 out to 96 it's just a touch colder out ahead...looking at h5 it shouldn't be north of prior run....we'll see

[GunBlade]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah, living on the edge is no good, and there's normally a late north climb.  Ideal scenario is for the NE confluence to increase over time, have the wave trek west to east instead of sliding northeast at the end....and throw in some late phasing

That summarizes 95% of winter storms here.  I’m right at the Mecklenburg/Union County line and most times we are within a few miles of rain/snow etc... Just going to north side of Meck county up near Wow normally is where the bigger totals are.  Sometimes being that close pays off as that’s where the best rates and QPF is but it’s a very fine line as all the snow maps are showing. 

[Amos83]

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

I think you'll do well. What part of town are you in?

I'm off 115 between Davidson and Mooresville. Basically right near Lowe's Corporate office off exit 31 on 77.  Hopefully the entire CLT area can cash in with this one. Too many good posters on here from the area

[BullCityWx]

Just now, GunBlade said:

That summarizes 95% of winter storms here.  I’m right at the Mecklenburg/Union County line and most times we are within a few miles of rain/snow etc... Just going to north side of Meck county up near Wow normally is where the bigger totals are.  Sometimes being that close pays off as that’s where the best rates and QPF is but it’s a very fine line as all the snow maps are showing. 

I can remember last year when the difference in distance between my house and Wow's house was about 7 miles,give or take, and he ended up with more snow than I did in Davidson.

[BornAgain13]

12z UK placement map looks good.... is it a big winter storm taken verbatim?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 29m29 minutes ago

 

 

The stage appears to be setting for a classic mid-Atlantic snowstorm later this weekend. A developing southern stream low-pressure system blocked by a NE High Pressure system, which keeps cold air locked over WV, VA, NC. We are looking at potential for 1-2ft of snow in NC-VA.

[BullCityWx]

Just now, Amos83 said:

I'm off 115 between Davidson and Mooresville. Basically right near Lowe's Corporate office off exit 31 on 77.  Hopefully the entire CLT area can cash in with this one. Too many good posters on here from the area

If they get a good bit of snow, you're gonna be surprised how quick town of davidson gets it cleaned up. I think you'll do well!

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

FV3 out to 96 it's just a touch colder out ahead...looking at h5 it shouldn't be north of prior run....we'll see

Slightly colder dew points; especially into north central SC. 

[GunBlade]

Just now, Queencitywx said:

I can remember last year when the difference in distance between my house and Wow's house was about 7 miles,give or take, and he ended up with more snow than I did in Davidson.

Yup and I think we stayed about 1 degree away from snow.  Got some sleet and snow/rain mix but not much else.  Hopefully this can trend just a touch colder or further south and bring those totals down a little closer to us.  

[Lookout]

3 hours ago, burrel2 said:

I'm thinking the CAD is being extremely under modeled at this point.  Most of the globals have our high in near perfect position.  I think we will see the Hi-Res models paint a different picture with regards to sleet/freezing rain once they get in range.

As a general rule, you can normally shave 4 or 5 degrees off whatever the GFS is showing in this time range in a CAD setup. If you do that for this storm it's a devastating ice storm all the way down to Lookouts house.  The GFS is already showing some ice to that point as it is.

 

That is the general rule of thumb, especially with respectable dewpoint depressions. Which again is the one ingredient that's been missing with this system south of nc on the models. Even so, it's almost a given that the models will be at least 1 to 3 degrees too warm even without much dry air to work with.  Sometimes it's more though, like the last cad we had where models across the board were showing temps bottoming out  in ne ga from 38 in the far north  to  as high as 40 and 41 here right up until it happened....in reality the temps dropped as low as 33/34 at cornelia and gainesville and 36 here.  Much of that was thanks to some colder air just off the surface but it  was with dewpoint depressions of just a few degrees. Regardless, it was quite a miss for the models. 

3 hours ago, jjwxman said:

I agree 100%.  The dewpoint on the NAM at 84 is 10-20 degrees cooler than the GFS.  Now we all know the NAM past 48 hours can be a crap shoot, but these numbers are probably not all that off.

 

I've been watching this...and it would have ramifications obviously. 

I'ts not just at the surface though. the new 12z nam is much colder/drier  in the low levels in general. Huge differences at 925mb between the nam and gfs over the carolinas. It's the long range nam so we should throw in the usual disclaimers but this is a big and notable difference and if right, the gfs surface temps are likely quite off in cad areas.  Note the nam has northerly/northeasterly flow being established quite a bit sooner than the gfs over the carolinas/ga. Up to 7c difference over eastern sc. 

 Also, Interesting to note gfs has winds quite high in the boundary layer...with surface winds up to 15 to 20 knots and  winds up to  925mb winds increasing to 35 to  40 knots across ne ga/upstate by late saturday afternoon which is pretty impressive. Given the isobars, it's not surprising. One would think caa would be rather strong. We will see if the nam is on to something. 

nam first/gfs second

 

 

[CADEffect]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

FV3 out to 96 it's just a touch colder out ahead...looking at h5 it shouldn't be north of prior run....we'll see

Grit I assume that’s what everyone calls you. I’m a seasonal reader and poster. Just also noticed with your post the 850 hasn’t changed compared to the last run FV3. I would like to see that trend further south at least toward Columbia S.C. I’m in the upstate S.C area. 

[WxKnurd]

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

I can remember last year when the difference in distance between my house and Wow's house was about 7 miles,give or take, and he ended up with more snow than I did in Davidson.

And you and grit had about 1.5 to 2 times what I had over by the Whitewater Center.  Warm nose has gotten me ever since I moved from Huntersville, first to Noda and now over on the river (much better location than Noda though and about as good as Huntersville, just seems the sleet line or a low dendritic growth area sets up on top of me).  Hopefully I’ll bring some of this cold Chicago airmass back home with me on Friday night/early Saturday morning.  Can a Tacoma tow dry cold air? 

[Buddy1987]

96 hr FV3 gfs similar to 6z same time frame with low placement. HP sliding a little better along with the system to the north 1mb stronger

[JoshWeather]

5 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

That summarizes 95% of winter storms here.  I’m right at the Mecklenburg/Union County line and most times we are within a few miles of rain/snow etc... Just going to north side of Meck county up near Wow normally is where the bigger totals are.  Sometimes being that close pays off as that’s where the best rates and QPF is but it’s a very fine line as all the snow maps are showing. 

Ive been in the exact same area for the last 7 years.  Seems that every snowstorm that comes through is a 33 degree rain while 15 miles away gets dumped on.  Did get a nice little 2-3 inch storm last winter.  Hopefully this one keeps moving south.  Though ill take a cold rain over ice 100% of the time

[sarcean]

Hard to think we are not on the brink of a potentially historic storm for atleast some of North Carolina

[griteater]

2 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

Grit I assume that’s what everyone calls you. I’m a seasonal reader and poster. Just also noticed with your post the 850 hasn’t changed compared to the last run FV3. I would like to see that trend further south at least toward Columbia S.C. I’m in the upstate S.C area. 

Gotcha, I was looking broadly at 1000-500mb thickness for temps...it was a small change, but every little bit matters down south

[Amos83]

2 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

And you and grit had about 1.5 to 2 times what I had over by the Whitewater Center.  Warm nose has gotten me ever since I moved from Huntersville, first to Noda and now over on the river (much better location than Noda though and about as good as Huntersville, just seems the sleet line or a low dendritic growth area sets up on top of me).  Hopefully I’ll bring some of this cold Chicago airmass back home with me on Friday night/early Saturday morning.  Can a Tacoma tow dry cold air? 

yep, many times the Davidson/Mooresville area would have 2x the amount of snow I'd get in Concord. Crazy how just a few miles can make such a difference.

[Wow]

13 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I can remember last year when the difference in distance between my house and Wow's house was about 7 miles,give or take, and he ended up with more snow than I did in Davidson.

Pulled that one out by the skin of my teeth to stay all snow

[WxKnurd]

1 minute ago, Amos83 said:

yep, many times the Davidson/Mooresville area would have 2x the amount of snow I'd get in Concord. Crazy how just a few miles can make such a difference.

Insult to injury is my mom sending me pictures from back home up in Northern Catawba County (always a good climo place for the county, tend to miss out on the Lee-side screw job that happens occasionally when compared just to the west in Hickory). I actually chased one December storm back in 2009 or 2010 I think, when my wife and I were still dating. Drove from rain in Noda to sleet on 85 over by the airport to all out heavy snow on 321 all the way from Dallas to my parents.  Wasn’t sitting in rain and missing out on that one.

[southernskimmer]

Moved from Greensboro to Matthews last June. I’m literally directly on the screw line it appears. This is the only time I miss living there. I’m on pins and needles, and I’d be there for this one if it weren’t for a work party Saturday night 

[Buddy1987]

GEFS is def further south and east of the OP. On my phone and at work so don’t have pictures but at its closest approach it goes from Jacksonville FL to southeast of Myrtle and then east from there.

[Rankin5150]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

GEFS is def further south and east of the OP. On my phone and at work so don’t have pictures but at its closest approach it goes from Jacksonville FL to southeast of Myrtle and then east from there.

Sounds like an optimal track for us here in the Carolinas! 

[beanskip]

LOL at FV3 surface low track (at least as depicted on TT) -- it makes a perfect right angle from hours 108 to 120 -- goes due north, followed by due east. Unlikely ....

[wncsnow]

12z FV3 GFS is north

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

GEFS is def further south and east of the OP. On my phone and at work so don’t have pictures but at its closest approach it goes from Jacksonville FL to southeast of Myrtle and then east from there.

Hey Buddy, are you model watching while you should be working?

[wncsnow]

12Z FV3 hammers most of Virginia all the way up into DC and MD... Much like 6Z