December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[griteater]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:11 PM, DopplerWx said:

absolutely massive warm nose at 126 for kclt.  

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It's kind of weird, the system is so slow moving that it is thumping heavy front end gulf precip into the cold-ish air....heavy rising motion on the NW side of the Miller A...and by the time the 850 low approaches and it warms, it has snowed a lot

[franklin NCwx]

You can see it here on ewall.

[FallsLake]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:13 PM, beanskip said:

Canadian back to a Miller B -- all rain for CLT.

 

EDIT: Takes low up into NW Alabama (!) before the transfer.

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At least it's better than its last run.

[DopplerWx]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:16 PM, griteater said:

It's kind of weird, the system is so slow moving that it is thumping heavy front end gulf precip into the cold-ish air....heavy rising motion on the NW side of the Miller A...and by the time the 850 low approaches and it warms, it has snowed a lot

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at 120 with good precip our sounding is razor thin, maybe all snow but likely some sleet mixing. but if we are talking razor thin margins this far out i know which way it will likely trend.

[Orangeburgwx]

Sandstorm (midlands SC) special at 156!! 

[HurricaneTracker]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:15 PM, Wow said:

That's a lot of water

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A big point for discussion here is that much of this water falls between 12Z Saturday and 12Z Sunday.  Some places will see 2 inches of liquid in just 24 hours.  Some of that will fall as ice/snow.  Yowza.

[FallsLake]

For RDU and charlotte folks, the 12z GFS was definitely a better run. It shifted the cold slightly to the SE. We need all the slight shifts SE we can get. 

[BullCityWx]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:20 PM, FallsLake said:

For RDU and charlotte folks, the 12z GFS was definitely a better run. It shifted the cold slightly to the SE. We need all the slight shifts SE we can get. 

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I think this run was really good for those of us either on the N or NW sides. There's 18" totals just north of town here near Bahama.

[griteater]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:17 PM, franklin NCwx said:

You can see it here on ewall.

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It's hard to beat the ewall 4 panel...I wish other vendors would go to that with the Euro etc.

The 12z UKMet goes big with the phase but still keeps the storm to the south, moving off Jacksonville roughly...similar to GFS really...it's a late, but big phase

[CaryWx]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:22 PM, griteater said:

It's hard to beat the ewall 4 panel...I wish other vendors would go to that with the Euro etc.

The 12z UKMet goes big with the phase but still keeps the storm to the south, moving off Jacksonville roughly...similar to GFS really...it's a late, but big phase

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J'ville, NC or J'ville FL?

[jjwxman]

This is incredible, just the shear amount of QPF makes the Wintry part of this storm system very unique for this area.  

[BornAgain13]

Folks, call me out if I'm wrong,  but I dont see that precip changing to rain towards the end, especially NW sections... that's where the GFS under does the CAD

[griteater]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:25 PM, CaryWx said:

J'ville, NC or J'ville FL?

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FL...it may come off a little north of there, but don't have the specifics with the early maps

[franklin NCwx]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:22 PM, griteater said:

It's hard to beat the ewall 4 panel...I wish other vendors would go to that with the Euro etc.

The 12z UKMet goes big with the phase but still keeps the storm to the south, moving off Jacksonville roughly...similar to GFS really...it's a late, but big phase

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Ewall is the best!

[HKY_WX]

Anyone have the banner elk GFS totals? Lol

[WinstonSalemArlington]

The Triad looks solid.

[SnowDawg]

Looks like maybe GFS is trying to catch up on stronger CAD. Couple runs in a row now where temps have gotten just a bit colder each time. 

[SnowDawg]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:28 PM, griteater said:

FL...it may come off a little north of there, but don't have the specifics with the early maps

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Hmm, would be interested in seeing the snow totals for that assuming that the cold is there. I know for my self and others in N GA and the upstate a track through northern Florida is what we typically want.

[ORWX]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:27 PM, BornAgain13 said:

Folks, call me out if I'm wrong,  but I dont see that precip changing to rain towards the end, especially NW sections... that's where the GFS under does the CAD

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I agree, it's rare that we (triad) transition to rain, it's usually too sleet/freezing rain in the triad and NW of there.  I'm sure it's happened a transition to rain, but I would expect that would be the very tail end of the storm as modeled.

[SouthWake33]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:30 PM, SnowDawg said:

Looks like maybe GFS is trying to catch up on stronger CAD. Couple runs in a row now where temps have gotten just a bit colder each time. 

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I was thinking the same thing.  Looking at the high placement and strength (compared to the previous run) along with the more inland track of the low I would’ve expected lower snow totals in the central part of NC.  

[Rankin5150]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:16 PM, griteater said:

It's kind of weird, the system is so slow moving that it is thumping heavy front end gulf precip into the cold-ish air....heavy rising motion on the NW side of the Miller A...and by the time the 850 low approaches and it warms, it has snowed a lot

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Grit, 

It looks like CLT is in the shaft zone again, but hoping we can at least get some sizeable accumulations before being warm nosed???

[snowbird1230]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:13 PM, franklin NCwx said:

Its letting that northern s/w drop into the southern wave. If that trend continues it should amp up more and climb the coast with more cold air pouring into the western part of the board.

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Hard to believe that ever since this storm showed up on the models that Cherokee and Graham Counties has been shown to get nothing. 

[griteater]

WPC's morning update

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:35 PM, snowbird1230 said:

Hard to believe that ever since this storm showed up on the models that Cherokee and Graham Counties has been shown to get nothing. 

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That's pretty typical with CAD storms. The higher mountains simply block the cold air from reaching that far SW corner of NC.

[jjwxman]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:36 PM, griteater said:

WPC's morning update

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It doesn't get more textbook than that. What a Beaut!

[griteater]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:35 PM, Rankin5150 said:

Grit, 

It looks like CLT is in the shaft zone again, but hoping we can at least get some sizeable accumulations before being warm nosed???

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Yeah, living on the edge is no good, and there's normally a late north climb.  Ideal scenario is for the NE confluence to increase over time, have the wave trek west to east instead of sliding northeast at the end....and throw in some late phasing

[franklin NCwx]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:35 PM, snowbird1230 said:

Hard to believe that ever since this storm showed up on the models that Cherokee and Graham Counties has been shown to get nothing. 

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That can happen with trying to get the cold air from the northeast. You want to root for a quicker phase to get more cold air on the western side.

[Cincy12]

FV3 a tad bit quicker it appears.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 26m26 minutes ago

 

 

Just the 12z GFS, so just a model run assuming 10:1 ratio, not factoring out sleet/freezing rain, which looks to only be an issue on the eastern side of the heavier totals on this map. But here it is. No this is not my forecast, just the 12z GFS. Look at the sharp gradient.

 

[Rankin5150]

  On 12/4/2018 at 4:39 PM, griteater said:

Yeah, living on the edge is no good, and there's normally a late north climb.  Ideal scenario is for the NE confluence to increase over time, have the wave trek west to east instead of sliding northeast at the end....and throw in some late phasing

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Thanks man! UGH. The usual. When am I gonna learn and just get the heck out of here. The Burgertime Snow Triangle of death is still alive and well. HAHAHA.