DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 for our decent storms the warm nose doesn't bring us back down to reality until 48-72hrs out, so to see this so early is not good. mountains and foothills are understandably excited but if anyone thinks CLT and RDU aren't in for a classic screwjob you're mistaken. That 2017 snow/ice map is probably going to be close to reality for this event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Cold air has trended weaker, storm more north, and people are starting to consider the NAM model outside of 48 hours. It is desperation time. What are you watching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, bess said: You must have hit your head really hard this morning. Grab a snickers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Don’t feed the troll guys 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, southernskimmer said: Don’t feed the troll guys Some people just want to watch the world burn. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's not surprising it's trended warmer, being early December, all frozen events are extremely rare 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, bess said: Some people just want to watch the world burn. Some people use logic and their eyes. The models have warmed, and you have been warned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 One thing I've noticed, periodically on the extracted data, is the chance for TSSN on Sunday Afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Some people use logic and their eyes. The models have warmed, and you have been warned. Maybe read less and post more? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GEFS means went nuts at 6z: 8” at Charlotte 11” at Chapel Hill and RDU 13” at Lincolnton 14” at Burlington 15” at Greensboro 16” at Hickory GSP?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: It's not surprising it's trended warmer, being early December, all frozen events are extremely rare yep, climo says no and we are dealing with marginal cold at best. anyone outside of the mountains that has their hopes up needs to save themselves a lot of heartbreak and expect rain. any snow falling before christmas is a win. these clown maps are ridiculous and they give people the expectation of monster totals, when in reality even an inch of snow in early december would be amazing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Some people use logic and their eyes. The models have warmed, and you have been warned. And obviously that isnt you. Back under your bridge troll. Carry on! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: yep, climo says no and we are dealing with marginal cold at best. anyone outside of the mountains that has their hopes up needs to save themselves a lot of heartbreak and expect rain. any snow falling before christmas is a win. these clown maps are ridiculous and they give people the expectation of monster totals, when in reality even an inch of snow in early december would be amazing. I would generally agree with you but we have two ensemble model suites screaming about this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Last night on the 0z GFS, 17" of snow fell in Burlington in 9 hours. 8.6" of it fell between 15-18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: for our decent storms the warm nose doesn't bring us back down to reality until 48-72hrs out, so to see this so early is not good. mountains and foothills are understandably excited but if anyone thinks CLT and RDU aren't in for a classic screwjob you're mistaken. That 2017 snow/ice map is probably going to be close to reality for this event. As currently modeled, this storm does look like that 2017 storm. Miller A with a sharp cut off. I'm not sold that this will play out the same. I'm thinking CAD is going to be depicted stronger in the coming days and we end up with something more like the 2002 storm (snow to the west and a big ice storm on the east edge). Now where that east edge sets up is anybody's guess. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 As currently modeled, this storm does look like that 2017 storm. Miller A with a sharp cut off. I'm not sold that this will play out the same. I'm thinking CAD is going to be depicted stronger in the coming days and we end up with something more like the 2002 storm (snow to the west and a big ice storm on the east edge). Now where that east edge sets up is anybody's guess. Wake Co as usual . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html Keep in mind I'm covered in the KCAE NWS discussions... 8" would be amazing but I will take the .7" mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: As currently modeled, this storm does look like that 2017 storm. Miller A with a sharp cut off. I'm not sold that this will play out the same. I'm thinking CAD is going to be depicted stronger in the coming days and we end up with something more like the 2002 storm (snow to the west and a big ice storm on the east edge). Now where that east edge sets up is anybody's guess. Setup reminds me a little of Dec 2009 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I would generally agree with you but we have two ensemble model suites screaming about this. i know but i remember in jan 2017 every single ensemble member showed 12"+ for rdu, and i was thinking that there was no way they would all be wrong on temps. and they all were and we got a sleetfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, CentralNC said: Setup reminds me a little of Dec 2009 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ good find, yeah that's probably about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, CentralNC said: Setup reminds me a little of Dec 2009 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ If the current runs are correct, it would probably end up like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Setup reminds me a little of Dec 2009 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ That's a good comparison based on current runs, the only thing that stands out differently about this one as of now is the potential for a good 2nd thump behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: If the current runs are correct, it would probably end up like that. Canada and new gfs bring it up as well. I'd sign for 09 redux up here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: good find, yeah that's probably about right. That was a hurtful storm for myself. Started as a beautiful snow and laid down a couple of inches, but then went to rain and washed everything away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Was up in the MA for that year, that was the first of three 18" plus storms that year. This is really setting up to be a great season for that area, especially when you consider the snow they had mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html Keep in mind I'm covered in the KCAE NWS discussions... 8" would be amazing but I will take the .7" meanI’m going to take my 1.25” of rain and think wistfully of what could be if only temperatures would cooperate in SE VA & NE NC. I have the beach less than an hour away, so it’s nice when I want to go to Kitty Hawk and fish, but not so good when I want snow. Meh... I like beach weather instead of cold rain, but what can you do. Hope you guys west of me cash in so I can see pretty pictures of snow and Christmas decorations. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 When are the next maps coming outSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The 6z FV3 run looks identical to yesterday's 0z run (12/3). Then it went back to a slider for a few runs. So model runs across the board are going back and forth with the idea of it pulling north. We'll see what happens today if we gain any confidence in that idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 43 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Not sure where you're getting this information. Could I possibly see this same graphic for Dry Fork, VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I really doubt this storm ends up as 100% snow for anyone except the mountains, including the foothills. The ratio of sleet to snow obviously grows as you push further east but the question is how much sleet. I do feel pretty confident right now that it's either going to be sleet or snow at this juncture IMBY. If I was s&e of 85(Cary, Raleigh, Most of Wake and Johnston), I'd be really concerned about a massive ice storm. I also feel like we're going to see a colder surface reflection with the damming and heavy precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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