WeatherHawk Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, jburns said: Great post. We need more like it. Drawing on my fine command of language...I said nothing. Mark Twain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: FV3 GFS brings the Hammer!! Wow!! I think the FV3 needs alot of work. I wouldnt count on that considering it seems much worse than the regular GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, ldub23 said: I think the FV3 needs alot of work. I wouldnt count on that considering it seems much worse than the regular GFS. Snow output is a fool’s errand at this early stage, regardless of the model. The Euro does show 2-3” liquid equivalent in the same general vicinity which is significant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, ldub23 said: I think the FV3 needs alot of work. I wouldnt count on that considering it seems much worse than the regular GFS. Don't blame the model, blame the algorithm on that site. Sometimes I think we'd be better without snow maps altogether. The micro details they present distract from big picture trends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Don't blame the model, blame the algorithm on that site. Sometimes I think we'd be better without snow maps altogether. The micro details they present distract from big picture trends. Im in se va and there is no way im getting 6-10 inches. All rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, oconeexman said: Where at? I'm between walhalla and seneca. Man I wish everyone would stop taking these operational runs to heart. We are 4.5 days away..the ensembles are in good agreement. Starting honing in on specifics Thursday night/Friday morning. The few Cad events so far this Fall have been rather stout and stingy to give in. None were over 1040 if I recall correctly. I like Oconee/Pickens/Gville areas getting a nice little event here. Boiling Springs. Just north of Spartanburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 New GFS clown map might be silly but then again so the EUROs output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: New GFS clown map might be silly but then again so the EUROs output. Its a realistic map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: New GFS clown map might be silly but then again so the EUROs output. Not sure if you’re familiar with the orographic processes around here but southeasterly upslope up against the mountains creates a ton of lift and enhances rain or snow, depending on the season. Even if it were overdone it’s still mightily impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 33 minutes ago, ldub23 said: I think the FV3 needs alot of work. I wouldnt count on that considering it seems much worse than the regular GFS. Not what the scores bear out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 New ICON out to 96hrs look much flatter out ahead of our storm compared to the 12z run. Could be a good trend if all the 00z models follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 So when do we start looking for trends in the NAM past 60hr? Never? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: KGSP is still at a 9” mean on the 18z GEFS. KGSO is at 11”. KCLT is at 8”. All dramatic increases since this morning. That's crazy honestly, I can't remember seeing means like that at this lead before. Almost all the panels show significant snowfall, although I am sure most of that, at least for CLT and GSP would be mix. Crazier still, is how the op runs have basically left GSP with all rain; how can the op's and ensembles be so different? Something for everyone to keep in mind, in a setup like this with very marginal cold, timing and placement are the whole show; even more than usual when we have better cold air sources. Speed up or slow down one player, 50 miles here or there for placement, or a couple mbs of pressure up or down will change the model outputs tremendously; even up till go time. I certainly wouldn't expect it, but it's very possible a nick here or tuck there could change our output back to a colder suppressed look; it wouldn't take a whole lot. Too early to be jumping ship, even though tempered expectations are wise. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: New ICON out to 96hrs look much flatter out ahead of our storm compared to the 12z run. Could be a good trend if all the 00z models follow suit. Looks mega warm though...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks mega warm though...ughICON has been warm every run I’ve looked at . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1035 in good placement but no wedge??? Only nc mins get a little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: That's crazy honestly, I can't remember seeing means like that at this lead before. Almost all the panels show significant snowfall, although I am sure most of that, at least for CLT and GSP would be mix. Crazier still, is how the op runs have basically left GSP with all rain; how can the op's and ensembles be so different? Something for everyone to keep in mind, in a setup like this with very marginal cold, timing and placement are the whole show; even more than usual when we have better cold air sources. Speed up or slow down one player, 50 miles here or there for placement, or a couple mbs of pressure up or down will change the model outputs tremendously; even up till go time. I certainly wouldn't expect it, but it's very possible a nick here or tuck there could change our output back to a colder suppressed look; it wouldn't take a whole lot. Too early to be jumping ship, even though tempered expectations are wise. This was posted in the MA forum alluding to the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, burrel2 said: New ICON out to 96hrs look much flatter out ahead of our storm compared to the 12z run. Could be a good trend if all the 00z models follow suit. Still too warm but building a southern trend. Snow line is down to the N.C./VA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Looks mega warm though...ugh That seems to be it's bias. It also shows ice as rain with the TT algorithm, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Not sure if you’re familiar with the orographic processes around here but southeasterly upslope up against the mountains creates a ton of lift and enhances rain or snow, depending on the season. Even if it were overdone it’s still mightily impressive. I do, just pointing out over 3" LE as snow. That's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Gfs a tad faster and a stronger coming onshore..fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Still too warm but building a southern trend. Snow line is down to the N.C./VA line Nice trends on icon today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, NCSNOW said: Nice trends on icon today. Yes seems to be slowly getting there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 HP 1mb weaker on GFS...THAT'S been a trend we don't want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Gfs a tad faster and a stronger coming onshore..fyi I believe it's also further north, didn't the 18z come ashore in mid Baja? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Yes seems to be slowly getting there! You heard any good news from our friend over in the foothils today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, NCSNOW said: You heard any good news from our friend over in the foothils today? Yes, all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 @102 HP 1mb stronger and low pressure is moving a little faster, comparing to 18z at same time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Yes, all in! Good deal and encouraging. Thanks for sharing. Get Brick on board and well be ready to roll. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 S/w goes from being closed at 72 to almost being sheared out at 90, then looks like it really flares up around Dallas at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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