southernskimmer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Really hard to get too crazy about energy that hasn't even made landfall yet. I have my fingers crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 We have lost storms like this before and they have all came back at some degree.. time will tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Brad P. posted this earlier today and I think it very well explains what could go wrong (or right) when it comes to model accuracy. We still are technically 5 days out. Climatology speaking, the odds are against a blockbuster winter storm in December. It would be a rarity. But there is still so much time and cliff diving is premature. As is reeling a particular model in. I’m just excited to have a possible storm to track, that for the most part looks promising for a lot of people. . 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: Brad P. posted this earlier today and I think it very well explains what could go wrong (or right) when it comes to model accuracy. We still are technically 5 days out. Climatology speaking, the odds are against a blockbuster winter storm in December is very rare. But there is still so much time and cliff diving is premature. As is reeling a particular model in. I’m just excited to have a possible storm to track, that for the most part looks promising for a lot of people. . Nice. That can also be applied to a storm thread. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, bess said: We have lost storms like this before and they have all came back at some degree.. time will tell. Most of those are the northern stream energy diving down. It loses the whole storm and brings it back. We haven't lost the storm. Just ticking nw. Usually those don't come back unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 KGSP is still at a 9” mean on the 18z GEFS. KGSO is at 11”. KCLT is at 8”. All dramatic increases since this morning. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Didn't see anybody else post these. Still a lot of solutions on the table. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: KGSP is still at a 9” mean on the 18z GEFS. KGSO is at 11”. KCLT is at 8”. All dramatic increases since this morning. KSVH (Statesville) is at 12", previously 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Now you're being realistic! Hell I'm in the extreme nw corner of SC and I have one foot over the cliff. Where at? I'm between walhalla and seneca. Man I wish everyone would stop taking these operational runs to heart. We are 4.5 days away..the ensembles are in good agreement. Starting honing in on specifics Thursday night/Friday morning. The few Cad events so far this Fall have been rather stout and stingy to give in. None were over 1040 if I recall correctly. I like Oconee/Pickens/Gville areas getting a nice little event here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Didn't see anybody else post these. Still a lot of solutions on the table. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Exactly. I expect a period of snow before change over for northern SC. At this point hang in there. Timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: KGSP is still at a 9” mean on the 18z GEFS. KGSO is at 11”. KCLT is at 8”. All dramatic increases since this morning. What is the mean for KDAN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Scud said: Exactly. I expect a period of snow before change over for northern SC. At this point hang in there. Timing is everything. The models, GFS included, show Upstate starting as rain. That’s never good , I don’t care what the GEFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgar2121 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, Wow said: KSVH (Statesville) is at 12", previously 8" Yay for me! (5 days out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The models, GFS included, show Upstate starting as rain. That’s never good , I don’t care what the GEFS is showing You could be right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 We still have days of model runs. I personally think the high will be stronger and a stronger CAD will materialize (in the models). RAH even discussed their thoughts that there would be wide zones of precip types. The last few model runs have not shown much ice (mostly snow/rain). I think that will change in the models in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18z EPS Mean bumped north. More amp with the wave and less confluence over the NE 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, griteater said: 18z EPS Mean bumped north. More amp with the wave and less confluence over the NE Losing the confluence over the NE early in the season, with an air mass that is not that cold doesnt end well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z EPS Mean bumped north. More amp with the wave and less confluence over the NE If it’s just regurgitating the info from the 12 z, that’s not that surprising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: This run is a lot more realistic. I have a feeling a lot of hopes and dreams are going to be crushed later tonight as well. Amped and warm seems to be the trend here. It makes sense historically. @TARHEELPRORGRAMMER88,, Dear Sir, You & I have had these "discos" where you have been a "EEYORE",, (no disrespect intended), come on guy, It's a El Nino, lets bet against "Climo".. (You know I been dead on these past couple Winters for ILM).. We gotten "something".. That said Look at OUR OWN NWS forecast, (long Range), when they start mentioning P-Type Issues, This far out, We just need to cast the Right Bait too bring it in.. **The fact that there is split flow will lead to some interesting and highly uncertain weather in the east over the weekend. In classic form the southern branch will lead to cyclogenesis over the Gulf and then East Coast while the northern branch helps to keep cool air locked in place. This far south it just looks like a wet weekend though some p-type issues cannot be ruled out inland. Deep moisture will be off the coast according to most guidance but the lagging shortwave energy could be strong enough to wring out a few sprinkles (or flurries??). The GFS idea of a cutoff southern branch feature and a new coastal low is relatively new at least this far south. *** Sounds promising considering Our Storm is this far out.. YOU KNOW HOW Conservative OUR local NWS is! just mentioning "p-type" issues this far out! should be,, well,, use your own judgement.. I say,,Let it RUN! Mor Suppression! lets reeel this Sucka IN! To Our Weenies inland,, when ILM mentions "p-type" issues, your in the game! Either cold rain for us via WAA, or ("warm nose" issues) are Often our Downfall here in ILM because we are "on the Ocean", Or the LP placement is too close to the coast, though We can get the "backside" P-types most often.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, WarmNose said: Our wave isn’t been properly sampled yet.. Another Historical "quote" for the Forum here.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said: Didn't see anybody else post these. Still a lot of solutions on the table. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Well what do you know... My mean jumped up from 12z Edit: holy cow that e4 run gives me over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Well what do you know... My mean jumped up from 12z Edit: holy cow that e4 run gives me over a foot Mine too! I "mean" at least a trace to maybe a inch or two, maybe 3.. I'll take a 3".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Well what do you know... My mean jumped up from 12z Edit: holy cow that e4 run gives me over a foot Ensemble means, people. Even then, you'll get hiccups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Ensemble means, people. Even then, you'll get hiccups.I feel like this is following how every winter storm goes, weigh climo heavily is smart decision for now. The euro thermal profile on op run was concerning at 12z but the ensemble looks better. I’m in the northwestern foothills and I’m not comfortable right now with temps. Feel like we could be looking at ZR even here. FV3 is dream run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 . 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: . Great post. We need more like it. 1 1 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, jburns said: Great post. We need more like it. I think He meant this? Sorry couldn't resist.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: . This is how much snow we are going to see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 This is how Earth will look from space buried in the ten feet of snow we're going to get. This is how much snow we are going to see. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: This is how much snow we are going to see. That's about 3" on my screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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