Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just think, if this storm were coming a month from now, the current FV3 model would be the operational GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 For those who do this for a living, if you had to set odds for inch of snow in the NC Triad...? Despite the flashes of something major, for this early in the season, I’d take just some flakes flying and a slushy 1-2 inches in Winston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I equate this experience to watching Tiger Woods tee off on the 1st hole in the Masters on day 1 and having everyone (us) scream "Baba Booey!!!" as loud as we can. Meanwhile Tiger just snap hooked the ball into the trees about 200 yards down the fairway. Moral of the story.....no amount of screaming and enthusiastic support could have made that ball go straight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GEFS increases again, especially NW NC, SW & Central VA. Comparison of 12z & 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 looking way north of 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 looks the same, though NW vs its 12z run, but the setup is no different. Good run overall at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 GFS brings the Hammer!! Wow!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 18z GFS is interesting. GFS has the shortwave landfalling in Cali as a much sharper wave... the orientation is a lot different. I included the trend. I reckon this is what eventually tugged the entire system to the N. 18z output sucked, even for me, but how on earth is the GFS going to make such a large change to the shortwave over one of the most under-sampled regions? I'm not tossing the 18z GFS but I'm not putting much stock in it either. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Lemonade Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: GEFS increases again, especially NW NC, SW & Central VA. Comparison of 12z & 18z Nice, wish I could be at the cabin this weekend. Winter looks to be getting off to a good start. Hopefully a sign of things to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: FV3 looking way north of 12z Really just noise at this range, still a monster winter storm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: FV3 GFS brings the Hammer!! Wow!! Looks like we traded fantasy snow totals vs 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: 18z GFS is interesting. GFS has the shortwave landfalling in Cali as a much sharper wave... the orientation is a lot different. I included the trend. I reckon this is what eventually tugged the entire system to the N. 18z output sucked, even for me, but how on earth is the GFS going to make such a large change to the shortwave over one of the most under-sampled regions? I'm not tossing the 18z GFS but I'm not putting much stock in it either. Also, the push over Maine is further SW, on the last image, should be better cold press? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Here are the last 8 runs of the FV3 snow totals. I will say it's been generally consistent with a NC winter storm in some form 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Really just noise at this range, still a monster winter storm. But I want the noise ringing from Hattiesburg to Myrtle Beach at this time range! No wiggle room 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: FV3 GFS brings the Hammer!! Wow!! Not sure how that map is generated, but there really shouldn't be much if any snow outside of the western/northern piedmont (aside from some at the beginning), based off a quick glance of the modeled 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Wow said: Looks like we traded fantasy snow totals vs 12z Sure does look that way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: Not sure how that map is generated, but there really shouldn't be much if any snow outside of the western/northern piedmont (aside from some at the beginning), based off a quick glance of the modeled 850 temps. It was mentioned in the Tennessee Valley thread the other day, but the TT formula is off for the FV3. If you compare the snow total map to other sites it is significantly increased on TT for some reason. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Yeah the snow total product on the FV3 is just straight up broke. Showing foot plus totals in places that should be rain for pretty much the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Lemonade Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: But I want the noise ringing from Hattiesburg to Myrtle Beach at this time range! No wiggle room Check this out, I like the grouping of lows beginning to cluster around the southern Mississippi/ Georgia border. Then look at the next frame, cluster appears to have moved due east. Perhaps this may imply a track closer to the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 No point posting 10:1 nonsense to be honest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wurbus said: It was mentioned in the Tennessee Valley thread the other day, but the TT formula is off for the FV3. If you compare the snow total map to other sites it is significantly increased on TT for some reason. Here you go... another site with big totals from the 18z FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The GEFS looks good, but I don't like that it slowed down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: Just can’t never get a high to lock in throughout a storm anymore... Always rocketing off the coast as soon as the precip arrives. You can thank the NAO and its positive state for the better part of a decade for that. People blow it off and say the PNA is more important. Truth is they are equally important. The PNA delivers the cold but the NAO slows it down and locks it in. Without it you're trying to get the low and high to run in tandem and well, you know that fails 9 out of 10 times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, Disco Lemonade said: Check this out, I like the grouping of lows beginning to cluster around the southern Mississippi/ Georgia border. Then look at the next frame, cluster appears to have moved due east. Perhaps this may imply a track closer to the gulf? The issue is surface lows don't run in a straight line. They jump contingent on upper level forcing and dynamics. My guess is we see a weak SFC low reflection over southern Ms valley, then near mid ga, then eventually offshore. Not a true Miller a or b. This usually means snow in the nw mtns, snow to ice in the foothills and northern nc, snow to ice to rain elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Here's the past 8 runs of the FV3 total QPF... definitely trending wetter regardless of the precip type 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: GEFS increases again, especially NW NC, SW & Central VA. Comparison of 12z & 18z How in the hell is the ensembles giving me a dusting? The NW trend is obvious so I'm going to bet on me getting cold rain unless the trend reverses. It was fun while it lasted, and truth be told I'm surprised I made it this long #stormdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 By this time tomorrow we close in on 100 hrs of the event. One would think the ensembles and the operationals will begin some agreement. Will the ensembles go north? Or will the ops come back south? I know what my money is on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said: By this time tomorrow we close in on 100 hrs of the event. One would think the ensembles and the operationals will begin some agreement. Will the ensembles go north? Or will the ops come back south? I know what my money is on I am thinking North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, CentralNC said: I am thinking North. Good call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: How in the hell is the ensembles giving me a dusting? The NW trend is obvious so I'm going to bet on me getting cold rain unless the trend reverses. It was fun while it lasted, and truth be told I'm surprised I made it this long #stormdone Now you're being realistic! Hell I'm in the extreme nw corner of SC and I have one foot over the cliff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now