Steven_1974 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Where do you find all the panels for the various solutions these models spit out, where say it shows 20 of 40 members with snowfall in them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 54 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: At this long lead, I wonder why the NWS doesn't lean more heavily on ensembles. They seem to base their forecast on guidance from operational models in their discussion. I've wondered the same. Seems pro Mets preach ensembles but hug and flip flop with op runs. I think they go with the warmest least snowy regardless if its the ensembles or the ops. Smart call most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said: Where do you find all the panels for the various solutions these models spit out, where say it shows 20 of 40 members with snowfall in them? WxBell has the Euro Ens members. You can get the GFS Ens members here https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Go to GEFS tab at the top > Precipitation Products on the left > Ensemble Snow Acc - then use sliding button to scroll thru the images (you can choose different regions on the left too - U.S. / Southeast, etc.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 18z GFS - wave coming in a bit farther south, into baja. Slightly better cold press out front out to 93 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 18z GFS - wave coming in a bit farther south, into baja. Slightly better cold press out front out to 93 Grit, I feel like the gfs is notorious for burying these lows ungodly amounts only to correct toward the end. Not saying this will happen here but it is highly suspect to me. On the flip side, the gfs usually is underdone with cad and high pressure systems to the north. Catch 22 right now what to believe with the soon to be phased out gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It looks a little cleaner this run with the confluent flow from the wave into the NE trough...stronger high out front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Yeah...1039 high is a bit stronger than previous runs. Let's see where she goes from here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Wave is amped up now...not sliding east....should be big in SW VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Looks like a lot of sleet in the Triad Saturday night, per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Poor pan handle can't catch a break! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 High gets pushed out after 126, way too warm, even mtns mostly a mix. Terrible run there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Lemonade Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Oh well, no worries we'll get ours in central NC this winter. Good thing it's still early. I think this will do well in the NC mountains, possibly a snow to rain situation as the low get worked up off the coast. Then as it pulls away I'd bet we see some flurries through the ped and sandhills... which lets be honest would be a huge win, more then I saw during the entire 2011-12 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Come on folks it’s one run and the 18z GFS at that. Absolutely no reason to throw a towel in at this point for central and western NC folks especially 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It's a lot slower. That's a big reason for the jump North I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Yay for rain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The Euro was reason to throw in the towel, this is a reaso to punt till January 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 This run is a lot more realistic. I have a feeling a lot of hopes and dreams are going to be crushed later tonight as well. Amped and warm seems to be the trend here. It makes sense historically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just can’t never get a high to lock in throughout a storm anymore... Always rocketing off the coast as soon as the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 ...you’re putting stock in the model that’s now way inland after it barely got precip into N.C. last run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The GFS has been jumping around quite a bit. Give it a couple runs and see if it jumps back south again. Unless you live in SC, in which case you shouldn't have had hope in the first place TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Ensemble means, people 11 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wow said: Ensemble means, people Yes. Unless they start changing then no reason to panic yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Quote of the day “ once models go warm, they don’t come back!” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Yes. Unless they start changing then no reason to panic yet. Are the means cold? I thought they were pretty marginal, from 850 means that I could see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 slower again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The GFS has been jumping around quite a bit. Give it a couple runs and see if it jumps back south again. Unless you live in SC, in which case you shouldn't have had hope in the first place TBH. Are you just now getting to this ball game?take a look at the FV3 and Euro yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Quote of the day “ once models go warm, they don’t come back!” Our wave isn’t been properly sampled yet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 18z FV3 looks about the same through hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, ajr said: 18z FV3 looks about the same through hr 90 Good to hear after the GFS pulled the rug out from under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, ajr said: 18z FV3 looks about the same through hr 90 No it doesn't... Tad stronger LP, and further NW (aka slower and more amped, the opposite of what we need) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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