December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[ryan1234]

2 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Less than a 50% chance of less than one inch woke up too 9 inches it takes alot to go right but the overall setup is definitely there.

Exactly, a lot of pieces have to come into play in order to get winter precip in the SE. The fact that we are able to track something this early on bodes well, IMO. 

[Amos83]

I am not too concerned on the 850s being shown by the Euro yet... typically it doesn't catch on to the strength of the CAD until we get closer, bigger pieces are what we should be concentrating on this far out (as WOW mentioned).

[wncsnow]

Still impressive for western sections. Keep in mind much of this would be sleet/slop 

[Orangeburgwx]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Still impressive for western sections. Keep in mind much of this would be sleet/slop 

Snow is 30 miles to my east, I got a feeling that the ensembles are going to give me one good run at the minimum

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Still impressive for western sections. Keep in mind much of this would be sleet/slop 

I expect the typical CAD areas along the escarpment, seeping into the French Broad River Valley and high elevations of the northern mountains, will do well. 

[sarcean]

Hoping it stays cold enough here in Greensboro / the Triad about 30 miles from the VA border for a mostly snow event

[CentralNC]

Just now, sarcean said:

Hoping it stays cold enough here in Greensboro / the Triad about 30 miles from the VA border for a mostly snow event

Prepare for a snow-to-sleet-to-snow scenario in the Piedmont

[lilj4425]

Looks like rain to me. 

[kvegas-wx]

19 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Ehhh... I don't really know if this issue is ever going to go away. The surface highs are nice, but the air mass we're inheriting is a rotting, modifying arctic air mass from earlier in the week. This air mass is going to be a pool of -3 to +3 C temps at 850, and I don't really know a mechanism that's going to change that.  As of now, models have for the most part graced us with adequate temperatures, but this is a situation that might be somewhat more sensitive to mishandling of mid level temps than others. The entrenched cold air is never the thing that "wowed" us with this system, so far it's the qpf.

Making a note of these comments.  Could be quite relevant in the next 48 hours or so once we get a better sense of the strength of the HP.  I do hope you are wrong, but the little guy on my shoulder is whispering you are probably right. 

[BullCityWx]

GEFS numbers pretty much skyrocketed, which naturally means EPS numbers will be way down.

[packfan98]

Just now, Queencitywx said:

GEFS numbers pretty much skyrocketed. 

The GFS suite was encouraging.  Let's see what the EPS has to say here in a few minutes.  Hopefully they will be further south than the op for those outside the mountains.  Those temps were torching!

[CADEffect]

It just seems to me the Euro has been on an island of its own. With historical numbers yesterday to nothing at all. You got to think the OP isn’t really got a grip on the HP yet as well as the wave. 

[burrel2]

I will say, a 6 inch snowfall mean on the GEFS for my back yard, at a 6 day lead time is very unusual. Not that it means anything.  I'll ride it and the new GFS right off the cliff I guess. 

[Orangeburgwx]

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main concern during the medium-range period is a possibility
of a wintry precipitation mix.

The GFS and ECMWF indicate a cold front sinking southward and moving
through the forecast area Friday or Friday night. Little moisture
will be associated with this front initially because of the dry
ridging ahead of the front. The pressure ridge behind the front will
extend from the Midwest into the mid-Atlantic region over the
weekend. The ridge will direct a cold northerly flow into the
forecast area. Low pressure near the Gulf Coast Saturday may be
along the Southeast Coast Sunday and Monday. The GFS and ECMWF and
most of the ensemble guidance exhibit this general pattern but with
enough inconsistency in the surface and upper features for a
low confidence precipitation-type forecast.

Moisture ahead of the Gulf Coast system may reach the forecast
area as early as Friday night. The moisture may remain high
through Monday. There may be a mid-level dry slot which the
models have shown affecting the area at different times which
further complicates the forecast. The deterministic GFS and
ECMWF forecast soundings have generally indicated a cold rain in
central and south sections but a mix toward the North Carolina
border. A considerable number of GFS and ECMWF ensemble members
support periods of frozen precipitation in the north. Most but
not all members have liquid precipitation in the south. There
has been differences with respect to a mid-level cut off low
developing and in its position. A farther south track with a
strong upper system would indicate a threat of winter
precipitation even in the Central Savannah River Area. The
threat in the south would probably hold off longer and depend on
the upper system Monday. We have forecasted likely rain with
the chance of frozen precipitation confined to the north part
for now. This was supported by the 00z ECMWF using the top-down
method. Based on the ensemble guidance at this time, we believe
the threat of significant winter precipitation during the
Saturday to Monday time frame is about 30 percent in Lancaster
County in the north to just 5 to 10 percent farther south in the
Columbia to Augusta area.

&&

Oh boy... Things just got interesting...

[Poimen]

If I had to guess, I’d say this setup produces significant snow for large portions of NC 9 times out of 10. 

[griteater]

After a few wobbles north, the 12z EPS mean wobbled south this run.  A little less amp on the wave and a little more press with the NE trough

[griteater]

15 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

It just seems to me the Euro has been on an island of its own. With historical numbers yesterday to nothing at all. You got to think the OP isn’t really got a grip on the HP yet as well as the wave. 

To play devil's advocate, just minor fluctuations with the modeled pattern and features easily yields some widely varying results, especially at this range.

[BullCityWx]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

After a few wobbles north, the 12z EPS mean wobbled south this run.  A little less amp on the wave and a little more press with the NE trough

Yeah, doesnt look much like the OP AT ALL.

[griteater]

8 minutes ago, Poimen said:

If I had to guess, I’d say this setup produces significant snow for large portions of NC 9 times out of 10. 

It looked excellent at 500mb, we just would prefer to have a sweet cold air mass laid down out ahead of it

[Orangeburgwx]

20/50 members give me something this round 

[sarcean]

Where can I see all the euro ensembles? 

[Orangeburgwx]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

It looked excellent at 500mb, we just would prefer to have a sweet cold air mass laid down out ahead of it

Well if the low hurries its tail up and catches the coldest part of the CAD areas as far as Savannah and Charleston could potentially get a mix... And give NC the storm of the decade

[BullCityWx]

There's actually more QPF this run across most of NC. 

[Lookout]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

It looked excellent at 500mb, we just would prefer to have a sweet cold air mass laid down out ahead of it

yep, if there was , this one would be a no brainer for big ice at least where im at but because there isnt im not too bullish on much yet. 

[Poimen]

I’m always leary of questioning Dr. No, but is this a classic case of the model underestimating the depth of cold/CAD airmass at this range, or is that just my inner weenie talking? 

[jjwxman]

12z EPS: You really can't ask for much more than this at this stage in the game. Roll on!

[Snow haven]

3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

There's actually more QPF this run across most of NC. 

yay, more rain for me

[kvegas-wx]

2 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

12z EPS: You really can't ask for much more than this at this stage in the game. Roll on!

A 1040 HP parked over Buffalo next to a frozen Lake Erie?  But I'll take what I can get.  

[DopplerWx]

4 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I’m always leary of questioning Dr. No, but is this a classic case of the model underestimating the depth of cold/CAD airmass at this range, or is that just my inner weenie talking? 

gotta be careful to not let your weenie out.

[SnowNiner]

1 minute ago, jjwxman said:

12z EPS: You really can't ask for much more than this at this stage in the game. Roll on!

Man if we can't get a warning criteria snow in the NC piedmont/Upstate out of that sweet look in December, I will never expect snow again in December.  Geez.  I don't know how I could draw it any better, other than a stronger high. We suck if we can't snow with that.