December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[DopplerWx]

4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The strength of the CAD / supporting high is crucial. Hopefully there is more transition zones. When this occurs our area does well with wintery precip. If there is a sharp snow/rain line somebody in our area (to Charlotte to the SC up state) is going to be unhappy. I still think the December 2009 storm is a possibility. Miller A with good snow totals in the western piedmont but a messy snow to rain event for RDU. 

agree.  we have seen so many times the past few years to take these clown maps with a grain of salt.  expect mainly sleet and rain and then any snow you get will be a bonus. i don't care if every ensemble shows 12"+ (see RDU in Jan 2017), I won't expect a thing until snow is actually falling and accumulating.  nam should be able to sniff out the transition zones and problem areas around 36-48hrs out.

[SnowNiner]

5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The strength of the CAD / supporting high is crucial. Hopefully there is more transition zones. When this occurs our area does well with wintery precip. If there is a sharp snow/rain line somebody in our area (to Charlotte to the SC up state) is going to be unhappy. I still think the December 2009 storm is a possibility. Miller A with good snow totals in the western piedmont but a messy snow to rain event for RDU. 

Charlotte is always, always the transition zone between snow/sleet or sleet/freezing rain/rain, much like Raleigh.  I think they poured I85 there based on synoptic meteorology. I hope though with the very nice CAD that is being advertised, we get closer to the FV3 temps, I think it's possible.  This thing has the potential with the qpf and set up to be a historic storm.  Amazing we've still got 5/6 days to go.  This has been on our radar for almost a week now. 

[Orangeburgwx]

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That’s a lot of rain!

That will easily washout the dirt road in front of my house, will be way worse if the CAD mixes it to a nasty ZR/SL/SN mixture

[Ericjcrash]

Congrats guys. Looking like a generational event is on deck down there. Then again in the off chance the Canadian is right I'm a happy camper. Definitely looking like it will stay suppressed at this stage.

[DopplerWx]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Congrats guys. Looking like a generational event is on deck down there. Then again in the off chance the Canadian is right I'm a happy camper. Definitely looking like it will stay suppressed at this stage.

if we got even half the fantasy storms models showed 150hrs out for our area we'd have snowfall totals similar to buffalo.  we will likely find a way to screw it up.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, DopplerWx said:

if we got even half the fantasy storms models showed 150hrs out for our area we'd have snowfall totals similar to buffalo.  we will likely find a way to screw it up.

Lmao. Well so far this season CAD was grossly underestimated in the mid November storm so that may be something to watch.

[DopplerWx]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lmao. Well so far this season CAD was grossly underestimated in the mid November storm so that may be something to watch.

that is one thing that gives me a little hope, if we can get cad to over perform we will be in really good shape as qpf doesn't look to be an issue at all.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

25 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I still think the December 2009 storm is a possibility. Miller A with good snow totals in the western piedmont but a messy snow to rain event for RDU. 

I've thought about that one also and that's not good for my neck. I was in Taylor's and saw a few sleet pellets mixed in with the cold rain. Caesars Head got close to a foot of snow- had to go up above about 2500 ft. Lower levels just a hair too warm. A tough one to take in the upstate, similar to last year in that regard. This one has that type of solution written all over it unless that cold press is really strong. Pulling for suppression as long as possible, but it would be against the grain around the upstate.

[FallsLake]

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lmao. Well so far this season CAD was grossly underestimated in the mid November storm so that may be something to watch.

That was in November. Most mets stated the fact that this was a problem. RAH even said that it was a classic winter setup for the upper SE, but most would just get rain because of the time of year. Not saying this storm will produce but it's not mid November any more. 

[SnowNiner]

Did notice the EPS and GEFS back off on the cold temps a bit last night.  EPS snow mean backed way off.  Clown maps are nice, but I'd like to see this thing stay south and trend colder as we get closer. 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Congrats guys. Looking like a generational event is on deck down there. Then again in the off chance the Canadian is right I'm a happy camper. Definitely looking like it will stay suppressed at this stage.

You shouldn't congrats anyone a few days out. Anyway, this looks good for the south as of right now. I hope we all cash in up and down the coast.

[jjwxman]

4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Did notice the EPS and GEFS back off on the cold temps a bit last night.  EPS snow mean backed way off.  Clown maps are nice, but I'd like to see this thing stay south and trend colder as we get closer. 

I did take note of that.  There were only two or three EPS members that had a somewhat close 00z OP outcome. 0 out of 50 had 30" totals like the OP had for the NW NC Mountains and SW VA.

[griteater]

Looking at the last few runs of the EPS Mean (including this morning's 06z run), there has been a subtle, though noteworthy, north trend with the system and temperatures.  At 500mb, the main changes I see are that the amplitude of our southern wave has increased and the blocking confluence region ahead of the storm in the critical area of Ohio/Maryland/PA has climbed north a touch.  To me, the target area for heaviest snow at the moment would be SW VA into Central VA, with the extent of wintry precip to the south of there dependent on the strength of the damming high and extent of the cold air source.  Right now, the EPS mean is showing dewpoints in the teens in Virginia on Saturday as the storm approaches.  For the hardcore mixed precip events in central NC down into the SC upstate and into NE GA, we typically see dewpoints in the single digits in Virginia.  Now, that's a surface plot on an ensemble mean 5 days away, but nevertheless, you'd want to see a colder trend there for more mixed wintry precip to the south.  In terms of precip, it does indeed look to be a heavy event as others have mentioned for the areas that take a flush hit by the storm given the solid southern stream wave and gulf intake.

[Orangeburgwx]

14 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Did notice the EPS and GEFS back off on the cold temps a bit last night.  EPS snow mean backed way off.  Clown maps are nice, but I'd like to see this thing stay south and trend colder as we get closer. 

 

6 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

I did take note of that.  There were only two or three EPS members that had a somewhat close 00z OP outcome. 0 out of 50 had 30" totals like the OP had for the NW NC Mountains and SW VA.

6z FV3 shifted the cold back south a little bit... Something to monitor today

[SnowNiner]

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Looking at the last few runs of the EPS Mean (including this morning's 06z run), there has been a subtle, though noteworthy, north trend with the system and temperatures.  At 500mb, the main changes I see are that the amplitude of our southern wave has increased and the blocking confluence region ahead of the storm in the critical area of Ohio/Maryland/PA has climbed north a touch.  To me, the target area for heaviest snow at the moment would be SW VA into Central VA, with the extent of wintry precip to the south of there dependent on the strength of the damming high and extent of the cold air source.  Right now, the EPS mean is showing dewpoints in the teens in Virginia on Saturday as the storm approaches.  For the hardcore mixed precip events in central NC down into the SC upstate and into NE GA, we typically see dewpoints in the single digits in Virginia.  Now, that's a surface plot on an ensemble mean 5 days away, but nevertheless, you'd want to see a colder trend there for more mixed wintry precip to the south.  In terms of precip, it does indeed look to be a heavy event as others have mentioned for the areas that take a flush hit by the storm given the solid southern stream wave and gulf intake.

Yeah, we need to see this trend colder for sure.  850s shown below won't cut it.  What feature do we need to look for to get this colder in upcoming afternoon runs? 

I heard we lost the Ukie too? Haven't seen specifics.  Sounds like bad trends overnight. 

[BullCityWx]

I dont think EPS backed off so much as the OP wasnt skewing the results. 

[jjwxman]

FWIW the 6z GEFS had several members jump north, although the mean still looks further south. 

 

[HKY_WX]

If the modelling is close to being accurate on the HP, I'm not overly worried about surface temps. This rivals some of the better HP configurations I've seen in a while. A lot about this setup reminds me of Dec 2002/2003. Mostly driven by good timing of a HP system and excellent split-flow +PNA setup. I think this will definitely have a solid ICE trainsition zone b/n the snow and rain. The outlying question is how much interaction we get w/ the northern stream on the backside, as that will likely start edging the SLP closer to the coastline and push the ICE futher NW. This setup is likely to be a Miller A/B hybrid w/ a SLP in the lower deep south and then potentially riding the coastline. I really like areas of NW NC. Foothills/mountains into southern Virginia when it comes to pure snow. I am soooo tempted to just go to Banner elk for my AirBNB w/ the family and hope we get trapped lol.

[Waiting on snow]

5 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

FWIW the 6z GEFS had several members jump north, although the mean still looks further south. 

 

Of course. I have a feeling this is the beginning of the end for the upstate and CLT to RDU folks. I hope I'm wrong. But it's a little early to be starting the inevitable nw trend.

[griteater]

16 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Yeah, we need to see this trend colder for sure.  850s shown below won't cut it.  What feature do we need to look for to get this colder in upcoming afternoon runs? 

I heard we lost the Ukie too? Haven't seen specifics.  Sounds like bad trends overnight. 

For the central and southern areas of the forum, I'd want to see that confluence area created by the southern stream connecting to the Northeast trough to be solid, well-timed, and not retreat north too early...and I'd want the southern wave to make a clean sweep, unencumbered west to east and slide right off the southeast/mid-atlantic coast...and the farther south that west to east trek the better.  Go take a look at the 06z FV3 GVS - it nailed it

[Waiting on snow]

2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain across the region Wednesday into
Friday morning, with another cold front then moving into
through the area Friday afternoon, and pushing well south of the
cwa into Saturday. Dry conditions will continue into Friday.
The chance for precipitations will return Friday night as
moisture overruns the frontal boundary stalled to our south.

The main concern in the long term is the potential for a winter
mix over the Piedmont and north Midlands Saturday into Sunday.
Confidence is low at this time as to the location and amount of
winter weather given models differences.

Models develop an area of low pressure along the frontal
boundary to our south. The ECMWF has the area low pressure
farther south than the GFS...thus allowing colder air and the
chance for winter weather to possibly affect the northern
Midlands and Piedmont Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the mid 30s and again Saturday night as lows dip into the low
and mid 30s. This cold and wet pattern is expected to continue
into Sunday as the area of low pressure crosses the southeastern
states and moves off the Carolina coast. Confidence remains low
and much can change between now and then, so will continue to
monitor through the week.

Come on NWS drop the hammer and tell the truth...

 

 

Looks like they did tell the truth. Unless you mean drop the hammer and remove winter precip all together?

[BullCityWx]

I'm really interested in how the FV3 does this event because it's been routing the actual GFS for some time now. 

[PackGrad05]

For the Raleigh area, I prefer to see a suppressed look and lower totals at this time.  Too amped and too far north spells warm-nose for our area.  The only way to get a huge storm is to have some other dynamics play a role during the system to give a prolonged precip event.  Too early to see those details.

When will the players be able to be sampled?  Wednesday/Thursday?

[SnowNiner]

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

For the central and southern areas of the forum, I'd want to see that confluence area created by the southern stream connecting to the Northeast trough to be solid, well-timed, and not retreat north too early...and I'd want the southern wave to make a clean sweep, unencumbered west to east and slide right off the southeast/mid-atlantic coast...and the farther south that west to east trek the better.  Go take a look at the 06z FV3 GVS - it nailed it

Thanks! Yeah, saw the FV3, which was a cold, cold run with lots of snow for everybody.  NWS also favored the 0Z Euro, which was colder than the EPS so we've got that.  Hopefully we can trend back to a more suppressed Miller A track slider. I need the afternoon runs, like right now. 

[pbrown85]

19 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I'm really interested in how the FV3 does this event because it's been routing the actual GFS for some time now. 

Is this the first big winter threat that the FV3 has done for this area? Or does it have an established track record?

[Cold Rain]

6 minutes ago, pbrown85 said:

Is this the first big winter threat that the FV3 has done for this area? Or does it have an established track record?

Its snow maps have an established track record of sucking.  But it's skill seems better than the regular GFS, overall.  Honestly, there are too many factors for any model to have a lot of skill at this lead.  Best course at this point is to look at the range of possibilities, compare to analogs, and blend in climo.  A good winter storm is possible, but we need to observe trends over the next 3 days or so before we can legitimately hone in on who gets what.

[pbrown85]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Its snow maps have an established track record of sucking.  But it's skill seems better than the regular GFS, overall.  Honestly, there are too many factors for any model to have a lot of skill at this lead.  Best course at this point is to look at the range of possibilities, compare to analogs, and blend in climo.  A good winter storm is possible, but we need to observe trends over the next 3 days or so before we can legitimately hone in on who gets what.

Thanks! Still trying to learn some of the nuances of model watching. Following this forum has been a big help!

[lilj4425]

Looks like rain. Better grab the umbrella. 

[FlatLander48]

Do we even use the NAVGEM anymore? Anyways, we are now getting closer to it's use, and at hr 144 it has the low substantially farther west than the GFS and Euro. The Euro is a tad closer.

[Cold Rain]

1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Do we even use the NAVGEM anymore? Anyways, we are now getting closer to it's use, and at hr 144 it has the low substantially farther west than the GFS and Euro. The Euro is a tad closer.

Sure, if it's showing snow.  Otherwise, it's a horrible model, and I would suggest tossing it!