Upstatescweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Very weird to see nws-gsp even say south of mountains ⛰ could see the potential for storm. They always crush my hopes when I read there updates. But so far I’m happy where I sit this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6z GFS looks MUCH improved over dumpster fire 0z. CAD building with snow breaking out in southern NC Piedmont @ 132 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Warmer than yesterday's runs, but we can stand down from red alert. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 57 minutes ago, JoshM said: Warmer than yesterday's runs, but we can stand down from red alert. And it's still snowing across a good portion of NC at that time. The low off the coast stalls. Not sure I buy this but it does prove we have many more days of varying solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Man...I don't recall ever reading such LR confidence in a RAH discussion as I just read (in regards to a potential winter storm). Reading between the lines, the forecaster seemed bullish. On to the 12Z suite. In-short: A winter storm is expected to impact portions of central NC next weekend. While uncertainty on specific local impacts remains highly dependent on overall track, strength, and arrival time of said system, confidence continues to grow that some sort of wintry mix will occur across the northwestern piedmont of NC. Now is the time to triple check your winter weather supplies and emergency kits, and continue to check back in on the forecast for further updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Clown maps look nice, but with this SLP track, there will be a lot of mixing. HP setup looks good. Should be a very moist system, given the amplitude of this STJ wave. Def a Nino esk split flow setup in the Pacific ala 02 03 and 09 10. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 I still got 9/50 on the EURO and the FV3 is holding serve... No complaints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Looks like the 6Z FV3 is going to be another winner for many of us. Edit: it snows on the FV3 across much of the upstate and a good deal of NC from mid-day Saturday through late Sunday night. The clown map should be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 is just an absolute crush job. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 850 temps are below freezing into the n ga mtns and into the upstate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I was supposed to go to banner elk for an airbnb this coming wknd lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I was supposed to go to banner elk for an airbnb this coming wknd lol. Sounds like perfect timing 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 17" IMBY on the 6z FV3...that's a lot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 That was a great run! Looks to be primarily snow for RDU for almost the entire event. Surface temps look good as well. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: That was a great run! Looks to be primarily snow for RDU for almost the entire event. Surface temps look good as well. Is it just me or is the FV3 keeps trending colder each run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Is it just me or is the FV3 keeps trending colder each run If a strong CAD is in the cards for this storm, the models will progressively show a colder solution as we get closer. **usually 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 17" IMBY on the 6z FV3...that's a lot of sleet yeah this run is awfully sleety looking for a lot of folks...including north ga...850s only marginally above freezing with a deep subfreezing layer....925s are very cold down to around -6c. I'll take that over 2 inches of freezing rain for sure. Freezing line gets into central ga but fortunately a lot of the heaviest precip is over by the time it does so freezing rain accumulations look marginal there...though i suspect we will see a band of fairly significant freezing rain still somewhere. Sc looks to do much better with snow. Interesting it also has the upper level system hanging around for a while too providing light snows afterwards. Rather impressively the fv3 doesn't have most areas getting much above freezing again until tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The fv3 is a beaut i would love to see upstate sc score for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Is it just me or is the FV3 keeps trending colder each run Not just you - you can see the cold air from Canada slowly making it further into CONUS at the 850 level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain across the region Wednesday into Friday morning, with another cold front then moving into through the area Friday afternoon, and pushing well south of the cwa into Saturday. Dry conditions will continue into Friday. The chance for precipitations will return Friday night as moisture overruns the frontal boundary stalled to our south. The main concern in the long term is the potential for a winter mix over the Piedmont and north Midlands Saturday into Sunday. Confidence is low at this time as to the location and amount of winter weather given models differences. Models develop an area of low pressure along the frontal boundary to our south. The ECMWF has the area low pressure farther south than the GFS...thus allowing colder air and the chance for winter weather to possibly affect the northern Midlands and Piedmont Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the mid 30s and again Saturday night as lows dip into the low and mid 30s. This cold and wet pattern is expected to continue into Sunday as the area of low pressure crosses the southeastern states and moves off the Carolina coast. Confidence remains low and much can change between now and then, so will continue to monitor through the week. Come on NWS drop the hammer and tell the truth... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: FV3 is just an absolute crush job. I wish that model run was on thursday or Friday its been 93 since our last two footer county wide i guess well see but at least were nw of 85. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Looks like FV3 is the only model that came in colder and further south. All others came further north and a little warmer. We'll have to watch today's runs to see if that continues. If so, that would likely indicate our NW trend, which this early, would be bad for non NC peeps. My guess is that is exactly what will happen as we approach game time; low will become more amped and/or cold press is less and this is an I77/40 West and elevation storm. That's climo anyway. Hopefully we see a return to the more southern and colder solution on runs today or tomorrow, but it's hard to get that once we start losing it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Looks like FV3 is the only model that came in colder and further south. All others came further north and a little warmer. We'll have to watch today's runs to see if that continues. If so, that would likely indicate our NW trend, which this early, would be bad for non NC peeps. My guess is that is exactly what will happen as we approach game time; low will become more amped and/or cold press is less and this is an I77/40 West and elevation storm. That's climo anyway. Hopefully we see a return to the more southern and colder solution on runs today or tomorrow, but it's hard to get that once we start losing it. We will have to wait until 11am for the 12z GFS, if it comes in like the FV3 that means suppression is still on. The 0z runs always suck anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Looks like FV3 is the only model that came in colder and further south. All others came further north and a little warmer. We'll have to watch today's runs to see if that continues. If so, that would likely indicate our NW trend, which this early, would be bad for non NC peeps. My guess is that is exactly what will happen as we approach game time; low will become more amped and/or cold press is less and this is an I77/40 West and elevation storm. That's climo anyway. Hopefully we see a return to the more southern and colder solution on runs today or tomorrow, but it's hard to get that once we start losing it. Well, right now I think it's just noise. At this point we just check the ensembles and if they still look nice and suppressed along the coast we're good. At day 3 that's when I'll probably be looking very closely at each operational run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 0z Euro total QPF. It's juiced up. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wow said: 0z Euro total QPF. It's juiced up. Hey Wow... Wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, Wow said: 0z Euro total QPF. It's juiced up. 2.0" for my area holy hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: 2.0" for my area holy hell... That’s a lot of rain! 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: It seems like this is going to be one of those sharp cutoff storms where it all depends on how much sleet/ZR get mixed in. It'll be a fun week. The strength of the CAD / supporting high is crucial. Hopefully there is more transition zones. When this occurs our area does well with wintery precip. If there is a sharp snow/rain line somebody in our area (to Charlotte to the SC up state) is going to be unhappy. I still think the December 2009 storm is a possibility. Miller A with good snow totals in the western piedmont but a messy snow to rain event for RDU. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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