JoshM Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: FV3 is a thing of beauty and has been for multiple model runs now. It as well has gone more toward the miller b scenario. Has the primary die in northern AL with secondary off SC coast and then go N/NE from there. Here's a clown map to cheer us up from the other GFS and the Canadian mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: FV3 is a thing of beauty and has been for multiple model runs now. It as well has gone more toward the miller b scenario. Has the primary die in northern AL with secondary off SC coast and then go N/NE from there. I'd like to see that low 100 miles to the south and the high 100 miles SW at about 1038 or 1040. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I'm not really sweating this model suite too much, although I also have the luxury of being in the S WV mountains and I'll probably be good for at least a safe 3-6 under most scenarios. To the folks that say "The GFS looks kind of weird", you're right. The main change on the GFS wasn't our actual shortwave, but instead the placement of a strong arctic trough at 500mb in the NE. Look at the trend I posted- the 00z GFS backs this feature further SW by a solid 500 miles! This messes with everything- Not only does is completely shift areas of ascent and descent, and warp our high pressure, but it also acts to sweep out our low pressure very quickly- that's why the GFS is faster. Other runs and other models feature a slow, lumbering southern wave traveling unfettered from Cali to the east coast. Things get quicker when it gets caught up with whatever this trough is making an appearance. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 LP trended a tick stronger for tonight’s 00z runs. Not what we want. FV3 worked out for a lot of us but it wasn’t pretty. See if Euro follows suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Said I wasn't going to stay up, yet here I am. Here's the CMC ENS Mean. More Miller A-ish than its Op run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Said I wasn't going to stay up, yet here I am. Here's the CMC ENS Mean. More Miller A-ish than its Op run Yep ensembles at this range. I know that as well as any. But hard not to get worried over op runs that trend wrong because we all know we don't get the type of storm that was modeled in these parts. We just sit back and wait for the wheels to fall off with each model run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 To me the 500 and surface don't look bad, it's at the 850 level. There is a vort that is trending further north pulling waa with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: To me the 500 and surface don't look bad, it's at the 850 level. There is a vort that is trending further north pulling waa with it. Yeah, ideally for the non-VA group, everything would be a farther south....the southern wave, the sfc baroclinic zone, etc....that would place the 850mb low and its associated warming farther south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Euro out to 123 looks fine so far. No sign to me that this is going to be amped and north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The wave is about 3 hrs slower this run. The southern wave looks nice and clean, no secondary wave hitting California behind it...it's broad, has the southern slider look to it with the confluent flow firm over the NE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It's a southern slider. At 156, low is over N FL / S GA. Snowing in central and western NC into SC upstate 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Sfc low is just off the SC coast at 162. Snow in W NC, mix in west-central NC into northern upstate. Sfc low is over Wilmington at 168...so this favors W NC up into W and central VA for snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Northern stream energy is diving in and phasing late....big snow totals in N NC Mtns into SW VA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Euro Clown Map 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It ended up being a southern slider thru the gulf, then it had a pretty big phase with a closed contour over W NC...and it turned up the coast and off the mid-atl coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Clown Map Is that cm or inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bango said: Is that cm or inches? Inches. The Euro has an area in NW NC into SW VA of 3-4 inches liquid equivalent, lol. 2-2.5 liq eqiv in south central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Inches. The Euro has an area in NW NC into SW VA of 3-4 inches liquid equivalent, lol. 2-2.5 liq eqiv in south central NCI’m near lenoir wish I could lock this run in. So much timing with northern stream phase though nino climo heavily favors my area though so I’m confident in at least some form of wintry precip on front end at least . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 With the northern stream now getting into the fray and diving down into the trough on the UKMet, Euro. FV3, there are going to be all kinds of wild runs this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: I’m near lenoir wish I could lock this run in. So much timing with northern stream phase though nino climo heavily favors my area though so I’m confident in at least some form of wintry precip on front end at least . Im sitting here with you in Lenoir! Hoping for a monster weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 With the northern stream now getting into the fray and diving down into the trough on the UKMet, Euro. FV3, there are going to be all kinds of wild runs this week.Yes I find it interesting that FV3 along with Euro and ukmet all have phase on 00z runs. Euro and ukmet have always been more reliable imo vs old gfs, this storm will be interesting test of new gfs. Honestly feel like euro and FV3 weren’t all that different at 0z. Somebody’s gonna get a massive snowstorm if this solution is close. Maybe mid Atlantic though . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, bess said: Im sitting here with you in Lenoir! Hoping for a monster weekend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 What 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Yeah only if it were 24hrs out. Would be one of the all time greats here . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: This guy ftw. Thats a beaut. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, ForsythWx said: What Oh man. That’s 28” to 32” at my house. Being this far out, it will most definitely change in the next few days. I’d realistically expect more like 6-10” or so, and wouldn’t be surprised if it were less than that. I can’t believe I’m actually saying that! Having lived in the midlands of SC for 20 years makes you really jaded about snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Here's the Day 7 precip and SLP position for the 00z UKIE for you guys: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I’m all in on this run! If could get half of what is shown it would be a monster storm!!! Of coarse we know it want be anything near this. LolSent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Here is an update from NWS-GSP: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 410 AM Monday: Threat for significant winter weather next weekend continues, especially for the NC mtns and adjacent piedmont and points north. However, confidence is very low on the exact details. The 00Z EC was preferred for the extended given its better consistency and it falls between the faster and warmer operational GFS and the slower and colder GFS ensemble members. Thursday into Friday will be the quiet before the storm. Zonal flow aloft will prevail during this time with surface high pressure weakening and shifting southeast of the FA Friday. A northern stream disturbance passing to the Thursday night north may bring some clouds to the mountains with an outside shot at a few snow showers. Otherwise expect increasing clouds by late in the day Friday ahead of a surface low pressure system developing along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will warm some into Friday but will likely remain below normal. The surface low is currently expected to track near the northern Gulf Coast Friday into Saturday before crossing FL and arriving somewhere near the Southeast coast Sunday. the timing and location of the low would support continued increasing clouds with precipitation starting sometime Saturday, possibly late in the day. Most guidance shows a 1030mb+ sfc high pressure system building into the Mid Atlantic states Friday night into Saturday just ahead of the storm system. This supports much colder air filtering into the region by Saturday with highs expected to only be around 40, setting the stage for the potentially significant winter storm. Saturday night into Sunday currently look like the period for the most significant precipitation with a strong southerly low level jet pumping moisture into the region above the cold dome of high pressure wedging down east of the mtns. Much uncertainty exists with the eventual precipitation type across the region. At this time it appears that the biggest ice/snow issues would be on the front end of the storm system. Although, if the fairly strong sfc high pressure system gets locked into the Mid-Atlantic states on some models suggest, then significant snow and ice will be possible, especially across NC. Although at least light snow and especially ice accumulations are possible even across southern portions of the FA as well. The forecast will likely change multiple times this week, but now is the time to begin putting a winter weather plan together for this potential significant winter storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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