Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 SFC low at 144 is a hair further ESE and a tad quicker than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 lp location is nearly identical to 18z, hp just not cutting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Canadian is an apps runner That's just a Miller B further north, not an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GFS is on the suppressed side but it has no interest in showing cold temps until late in the storm...strange model handling or we are just screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: That's just a Miller B further north, not an apps runner. I stand corrected, but still a miserable rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Based on surface maps on the 0z GFS, the only difference is that the HP is slightly SW compared to 18z. the LP placement appears on 0z sunday on the 9th the exact same as the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Honestly, it's not really much further north. It's just faster. The cold air doesn't have time to build in. This is correct. Our CAD high is not in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 y'all have fun staying up for the EURO. I'll catch the update in the a.m. Good luck and good night! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 500mb looked good and normal thru 141 on the GFS, then it pulls in the northern stream from the NE trough at the end....weird run, no need to sweat that one 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Guess we'll just have to keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, griteater said: 500mb looked good and normal thru 141 on the GFS, then it pulls in the northern stream from the NE trough at the end....weird run, no need to sweat that one Upper air pattern way more important that what the models paint at the surface. If we're similar at 500mb maybe stray away from the cliff for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 As bad of a run as that was compared to previous runs, still about 9" IMBY taken Verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Lemonade Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 500mb looked good and normal thru 141 on the GFS, then it pulls in the northern stream from the NE trough at the end....weird run, no need to sweat that one Agreed, I feel as though we may be splitting hairs here. Funny it's actually colder... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS is on the suppressed side but it has no interest in showing cold temps until late in the storm...strange model handling or we are just screwed Go with the latter! This week just got a lot more productive at work! Won’t have to watch this dumpster fire anymore!! Somebody post the clown maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 UKMet at 144 has the low in Baton Rouge with the high on the Mid Atlantic coast. The UKMet is opposite of the GFS - it has the sfc high out ahead of our storm (a bit too far out ahead)...but UKMet looks like it's going to go Miller B if I had to guess....looks like it would be a big phasing Miller B 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet at 144 has the low in Baton Rouge with the high on the Mid Atlantic coast. The UKMet is opposite of the GFS - it has the sfc high out ahead of our storm (a bit too far out ahead)...but UKMet looks like it's going to go Miller B if I had to guess....looks like it would be a big phasing Miller B Nothing good in the runs tonight! The ensembles will save us! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The 0z EURO should be interesting!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I’m sorry but for me I don’t buy the 0z gfs whatsoever. It is still doing something odd with the low pressure as it’s around the SC coast. It still has the tendency to want to get the low to accelerate rapidly toward the blob of convection out in the Atlantic. Idk if I buy the sharp cutoff of precip the way it is portraying it as well. I am curious to see if the FV3 follows the Ukie/CMC suite tonight with the turn back toward miller b scenario. Very fascinating to track this storm at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Go with the latter! This week just got a lot more productive at work! Won’t have to watch this dumpster fire anymore!! Somebody post the clown maps! Yep that fell apart quickly. Historic to nothing in one run. Smdh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 gonna have to be careful not to drown stepping out the door in this raging rainstorm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 For those that have beads of sweat forming on your foreheads, because of the 0Z runs, please remember to take a look at all the pieces on the table AND take into account the naunces of the models at this RANGE. For example, if you look at Vapor, you can see the Split flow developing. Also, the GFS ALWAYS loses this storm at some point. Besides...it is only ONE run. Lets stay away from the cliff and see how future runs progress from here... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 is flatter at 84, not as much suppression so add it to the dumpster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 looks similar to 18z at 500mb out to 120Southern Vort stronger. Taller ridge in pna region but nothing way different yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: FV3 looks similar to 18z at 500mb out to 120 Southern Vort stronger. Taller ridge in pna region but nothing way different yet . Concur with this. HP over the Midwest is situated a little further north and west compared to 18z is the only negligible difference I see thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Concur with this. HP over the Midwest is situated a little further north and west compared to 18z is the only negligible difference I see thus far. 1mb stronger too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 stuck at 120. Low hanging out in Mexico is a tick stronger than 18z. Hopefully a stronger LP isn’t the trend tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 said "WAIT GUYS, I STILL HAVE THE SNOW!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Lemonade Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 looks like GEFS continues the idea of a weaker low further south. This is what we want to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 is a crushing for all of WNC lots of ice farther east. Tons of QPF . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: FV3 said "WAIT GUYS, I STILL HAVE THE SNOW!" FV3 is a thing of beauty and has been for multiple model runs now. It as well has gone more toward the miller b scenario. Has the primary die in northern AL with secondary off SC coast and then go N/NE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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