wxdawg10 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 These runs need to stay consistent for the next 2 days before i bite. But the trends are on our side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I don't feel great about the FV3 jumping North so much so quickly, hopefully the trend doesn't continue at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 High too strong, second low stays off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Does anyone have any verification scores for how the FV3 has performed wrt scoring coupes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Does anyone have any verification scores for how the FV3 has performed wrt scoring coupes? You would assume or hope it's better than the old GFS. Not because of how this storm is modeled but because it's supposed to take over soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just got a chance to look at the models. One thing that's encouraging is the initial cold air that's in place. Of course we need the strong high to the north and a good storm track, but from my experience having nice cold air in place before a storm is crucial in these parts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, WeatherNC said: Snow packed chicken? Not that time but we really need to do that again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, jburns said: Not that time but we really need to do that again. If you get it send pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Still a long way to go Hopefully we all cash in Oh, it's academic for me. I'm not getting anything anyway. It's just that they were really hyped yesterday but were bummed after that last model run. It;s a roller coaster ride for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: I remember Eric Thomas was talking about a major event almost 6 days out. Just catching up with the models today. WOW! I'm a little taken back. Again, I've only been on the boards and looking at models for about 8 years now. I've yet to see what's being modeled so consistently for my back yard. The ensembles have such a nice damming signature (strong) through the storm now. Thank you all for the great play by play and break down. I remember the same think about Eric Thomas. He went on air several days early and pretty much said, Charlotte is going to get nailed by a big winter storm. And he was right. If I recall, that was also an El-nino year with a southern wave. They seem pretty comparable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 RAH is all in for the Triad. Makes me a little uneasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Wow said: 2/2004 as I recall it was modeled always as a good precip maker with temp issues but in the last 72 hrs it trended colder and colder with each run. The February 2004 Storm is my ALL TIME PERSONAL BEST Snowstorm. We got 17" from that monster. I remember tracking it and it ALWAYS showed heavy totals on the forecast maps, however, it ended up being colder and we got hit with a ULL at the end. Lake Wylie, SC (a few miles down the road from me) got 24"+! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 11 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Less than a week out and all indicies show both Carolinas getting something... So let's bring this one all the way home So...as I mentioned earlier...I owe you a dinner and a 12 pack! Message me and I'll keep my word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Just catching up with the models today. WOW! I'm a little taken back. Again, I've only been on the boards and looking at models for about 8 years now. I've yet to see what's being modeled so consistently for my back yard. The ensembles have such a nice damming signature (strong) through the storm now. Thank you all for the great play by play and break down. I remember the same think about Eric Thomas. He went on air several days early and pretty much said, Charlotte is going to get nailed by a big winter storm. And he was right. If I recall, that was also an El-nino year with a southern wave. They seem pretty comparable. Agreed...lots of models converging here...:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Anybody have the 18z GEFS ensemble mean for snow for Dry Fork, VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 How about the 18z Euro!?? 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: How about the 18z Euro!?? How's it look? More suppressed to the south or ticked north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How about the 18z Euro!?? Tbh, I thought the 06z and 18z EURO runs only go out to 120? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Tbh, I thought the 06z and 18z EURO runs only go out to 120? Now that you mention it, you might be right! It’ll be great having 4 runs , when we get in range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Tbh, I thought the 06z and 18z EURO runs only go out to 120? Hourly up to 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: How about the 18z Euro!?? Shows 70 and sunny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Now that you mention it, you might be right! It’ll be great having 4 runs , when we get in range! It's weird, the off hour Euro only goes out to 90, but the off hour EPS goes out to 144 At 144 the 18z EPS looks really good. Low in the northern gulf south of LA. 1038mb High draped solidly from Iowa to PA. 0 deg at 850mb runs from NE GA to a point half way between CLT and CAE, over to Wilmington. The wave is a touch stronger this run, but the NE confluence is solid. It's not perfect for everyone, but it's pretty textbook for many areas. Hard to complain 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, jburns said: Not that time but we really need to do that again. I`m your huckleberry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, griteater said: It's weird, the off hour Euro only goes out to 90, but the off hour EPS goes out to 144 At 144 the 18z EPS looks really good. Low in the northern gulf south of LA. 1038mb High draped solidly from Iowa to PA. 0 deg at 850mb runs from NE GA to a point half way between CLT and CAE, over to Wilmington. The wave is a touch stronger this run, but the NE confluence is solid. It's not perfect for everyone, but it's pretty textbook for many areas. Hard to complain How does it look over SC vs the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KyleEverett Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GSP's forecast for York County is funny. Could be anything. Honestly whenever it's like that I expect just cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: How does it look over SC vs the 12z? It looks pretty much the same all around except for the wave looking a touch stronger with some increased ridging behind it. Temps look the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I've been sniffing around these forums since winter of 11/12 and this storm is already in the top tier of consistency in the long range compared with previous storms. In my experience, it joins the echelon of 2/13/14 and 1/23/16 in terms of seeing a signal that somebody was going to get smashed 8 days beforehand. I've heard a theory that sometimes these potential "big dogs" can get sniffed out very quickly and show more consistency than smaller-scale, more nuanced storms. Which makes sense- bigger systems would probably have larger parent shortwaves and would be easier to model. In any case, looks like a fun system. One thing I will say that I've noticed- The high is nice, but I'm really not very impressed with thicknesses or the depth of the cold air. We're not negotiating with record cold after, to put it lightly. I would watch trends with mid level temperatures. That being said though, still a very strong signal this far out. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 hours ago, jburns said: Why? This was my 2/2004. In Chapel Hill, we got like 4" of snow, while areas 10-20 miles further south got...a lot more than that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Tonight's map update from WPC...textbook look here for many 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I've been sniffing around these forums since winter of 11/12 and this storm is already in the top tier of consistency in the long range compared with previous storms. In my experience, it joins the echelon of 2/13/14 and 1/23/16 in terms of seeing a signal that somebody was going to get smashed 8 days beforehand. I've heard a theory that sometimes these potential "big dogs" can get sniffed out very quickly and show more consistency than smaller-scale, more nuanced storms. Which makes sense- bigger systems would probably have larger parent shortwaves and would be easier to model. In any case, looks like a fun system. One thing I will say that I've noticed- The high is nice, but I'm really not very impressed with thicknesses or the depth of the cold air. We're not negotiating with record cold after, to put it lightly. I would watch trends with mid level temperatures. That being said though, still a very strong signal this far out. The Euro probably looks the best in the lead up. But no follow up cold air is going to be problematic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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