Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 It's flatter with the wave a little longer before it captures it off the coast... 12z was a bit faster wrapping it up and keeping it closer to the coast. Minor differences for this range as the overall setup is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Kuchera maps showing a max of 22.5" in person county. Foot totals from Charlotte to Concord. Foot and a half from GSO to Durham/Chapel Hill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Also, it's a damn good run when your KUCHERA number matches your raw data number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 18z GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Damn near takes the snow line on the back side to New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 18z GFS Sweet, sweet pivot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 It sorta reminds me of seeing a storm getting captured at the benchmark in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: GFS is doing something wonky with the low at 168. It’s like it has convective feedback issues and has it haul ass from 162-168, like it is trying to have the low over that area of convection well off the coast. I'm wondering if convective feedback isn't an issue earlier on in texas causing the low to be too far north there initially. Euro has the heavy convection quite a bit further south near the tx coast. Gfs also seems to travel south of due east from there, which would be unusual. I think what this shows is that there is very little margin for error south of nc with any adjustments to the north likely resulting in ice or rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It sorta reminds me of seeing a storm getting captured at the benchmark in New England. This. very rare indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 All caveats aside, when is the last time we’ve seen such a consistently modeled powerful winter storm modeled this far out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: It sorta reminds me of seeing a storm getting captured at the benchmark in New England. It starts to run into that confluence over the NE, then it just slides east. Sometimes when we have this type of setup, the wave is just too weak in the southern stream and it gets shredded. With this one, it shows signs of being a quality El Nino wave. We want the NE confluence to hold firm, but with a wave that is solid like this one so that it holds its amplitude and strength 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The MA forum is frowny-faced right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, ajr said: All caveats aside, when is the last time we’ve seen such a consistently modeled powerful winter storm modeled this far out? 2/2004, 3/2009 come to mind. Those were different situations though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, ajr said: All caveats aside, when is the last time we’ve seen such a consistently modeled powerful winter storm modeled this far out? The thing I was thinking of was when was the last time we've had a quality wave roll from California / Baja, east into Texas for a good SE winter storm. The last one I can think of is probably Dec 2010. We've had some good winter storms since then, but I can't think of one like this specific and classic setup 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: 2/2004, 3/2009 come to mind. Those were different situations though. mmmmmmmm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, jburns said: mmmmmmmm Disagree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Disagree. Why? This was my 2/2004. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 2/2004, 3/2009 come to mind. Those were different situations though. 2/2004 as I recall it was modeled always as a good precip maker with temp issues but in the last 72 hrs it trended colder and colder with each run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: The MA forum is frowny-faced right now. Still a long way to go Hopefully we all cash in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wow said: 2/2004 as I recall it was modeled always as a good precip maker with temp issues but in the last 72 hrs it trended colder and colder with each run. I remember Eric Thomas was talking about a major event almost 6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I remember Eric Thomas was talking about a major event almost 6 days out. Interestingly enough, the setup has some similarities to the '04 storm... just a bit weaker and further north with the trough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 18z GEFS is going to be more surpressed it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, jburns said: Why? This was my 2/2004. Snow packed chicken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 18z FV3 is worlds difference compared to some of the other models. More north yet still plenty cold for a bunch. Takes low from CHS to Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Pretty consistent, really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 18z FV3 is worlds difference compared to some of the other models. More north yet still plenty cold for a bunch. Takes low from CHS to Hatteras. It's actually very similar to the 12z GFS with the track close to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Pretty consistent, really. For our area, generally. For the MA, it's all over the place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wow said: It's actually very similar to the 12z GFS with the track close to the coast I was referencing comparing it to the 18z gfs and the 12z euro being a lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 Here comes the cut off low at 210... Temps in the 20s all the way to Savannah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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