griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 GFS will be another mauling, but it's a little north of previous....upper wave is closing off at hr159...big, slow moving wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, jburns said: Very little is certain. Not sure why you think 28-30 would cause a change. That was too specific. I'm just saying, with CAD it's rare to flip straight to rain, especially at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Overall similar setup just further N with the sfc low .. better precip shield extending from NC to KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Looks like 150 is well within noise range, maybe 35-40 miles north of 12z. I am assuming we'll see a similar result. A touch warmer, but nothing to panic over, just means more ice in CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: Overall similar setup just further N with the sfc low .. better precip shield extending from NC to KS Looks like s/w trended a little stronger and north. Maybe the reasoning behind mixing even up my way at the onset due to warmer mid levels infiltrating resulting from less confluence. I really believe until the Euro has the support it’s the outlier as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 LP doesnt curve up the coast, just keeps going east, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Flatter wave... more west to east r/s line... good for eastern areas of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 162 looks like decent snow north of the NC/SC border. 168 looks like +SN for Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 GFS actually ends up staying more suppressed than the last run as it goes off the SE coast....it's another slider. Not a lot of precip up into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 GFS is doing something wonky with the low at 168. It’s like it has convective feedback issues and has it haul ass from 162-168, like it is trying to have the low over that area of convection well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 @174, another LP pops up off Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 174 the focus of the heaviest snow is in the NC Sandhills, looks like it stops almost exactly on the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The wave closes off beautifully again on the GFS...it's a slow crawler with extended snows in E TN, upstate, and central-west NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Cut off low... pulls it close to the SC coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Still snowing across most of the state west of 95 at 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Still going at 180 , Low is in no hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: The wave closes off beautifully again on the GFS...it's a slow crawler with extended snows in E TN, upstate, and central-west NC The confluence isn’t as pronounced this run up north and should’ve allowed the storm to come a little further north this go around, albeit it is the 18z gfs we are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Wow.. at 180.. nearly stalled off SC.. snowing over most of NC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Looks like s/w trended a little stronger and north. Maybe the reasoning behind mixing even up my way at the onset due to warmer mid levels infiltrating resulting from less confluence. I really believe until the Euro has the support it’s the outlier as of right now. I'm not saying it won't come way north eventually, but the euro is supported by the ukmet and jma right now. The GFS and CMC are really the only models on the more amped side of guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Wow said: Wow.. at 180.. nearly stalled off SC.. snowing over most of NC 186, still hasnt moved much, lighter tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Wow said: Wow.. at 180.. nearly stalled off SC.. snowing over most of NC Supports the Euro in that regard. A bit further North of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Sandhill/Triad special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Still snowing across most of the state west of 95 at 180. over 30 hour event possibly.. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 This is as silly as the Euro, albeit in a different direction. The number 18 may be relevant for RDU, but I guarantee you it won't be with regards to inches of snow fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Fun run for NC...won’t be a productive week at the office 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: over 30 hour event possibly.. lol @192, still going, East of 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Looks like a northern jet wave crashes down just in front of our storm causing the stall/slide. Our storm wave is so broad it keeps the snowing going for quite some time in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 This thing is just gonna snow itself out like a stalled summer time thunderstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: This is as silly as the Euro, albeit in a different direction. The number 18 may be relevant for RDU, but I guarantee you it won't be with regards to inches of snow fallen. Come on Widre. You know better than to take these numbers literally. Cut them in half and still don't expect that much. Bottom line is we may get a little sleet/snow in theTriangle if this keeps up. Maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Come on Widre. You know better than to take these numbers literally. Cut them in half and still don't expect that much. Bottom line is we may get a little sleet/snow in theTriangle if this keeps up. Maybe more. I'm sure we'll get something. The pattern is right. But I think wintry mix to rain is the most likely call at this point. Or light snow (if it ends up suppressed). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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