December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[olafminesaw]

[griteater]

^ Nice post olaf - UKMet looks very good there

[wncsnow]

Those strong modeled highs do favor a more southerly track if correct. 

[drfranklin]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I have a feeling someone is going to get legendary amounts of sleet.

bingo...and I live in the sleet capital of the US...never experienced so much sleet since I moved here...live near I85 which is normally the dividing line between liquid/frozen precip (in marginal CAD events)...this storm has potential...

[Wow]

12z GEFS trend.  Much less spread with the sfc low placement.  More agreement with a Miller A type of track.

[burrel2]

I just saw the snowfall maps from the Euro.... I'm at a 10 out of 10 now on the excitement meter. Sure would be nice for the Upstate of SC to jackpot for once in the last 30 years.

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I just saw the snowfall maps from the Euro.... I'm at a 10 out of 10 now on the excitement meter. Sure would be nice for the Upstate of SC to jackpot for once in the last 30 years.

Don’t worry. The warm nose will ruin it all. Either that or a lot less qpf then what is projected by the models. Always something. 

[Buddy1987]

Guys what model has performed better as of late GFS or Euro? Looks like it’s a battle between the two with the Canadian looking more like the gfs at this juncture.

[BIG FROSTY]

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 60m60 minutes ago

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The 12z ECMWF was further south and then cut off the s/w, with a lingering coastal storm for a few days. A very odd, and outlier solution.

[pbrown85]

4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Don’t worry. The warm nose will ruin it all. Either that or a lot less qpf then what is projected by the models. Always something. 

CJ with wyff is slowly starting his hype train on his fb page. That's the biggest jinx we could get! 

[griteater]

JMA is suppressed into the gulf with northern extent of the precip in N Bama / N GA over to SE NC.  Look at those strong sfc highs with damming.  Likely a wintry run for northern half of GA into central/northern SC and SE NC

[BornAgain13]

21 minutes ago, griteater said:

EPS Mean coming in shifted south like the Op, and colder.  Sfc low runs from Brownsville to south of Louisiana and over to off Jacksonville with strong damming high to the north moving in tandem. Wave looks better (more consolidated and clean - less strung out).  Blocking trough over the NE looks good.  This is a killer setup overall on the EPS, no doubt about it.

What does the 12z EPS show for southern VA this run?

[griteater]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

What does the 12z EPS show for southern VA this run?

0.75 - 1.00 liquid

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

0.75 - 1.00 liquid

Thank you! I'm guessing that's around 9-10" of snow?

[burrel2]

Euro control run is a suppressed crush job from atanta to columbia to myrtle beach.  I'm loving this supression trend. Lets keep this puppy south as long as we can!

[burrel2]

I would say in the history of Euro ensemble runs... I've never seen a set that has looked that good in my life at 6/7 days out. It's beautiful!

[Buddy1987]

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Thank you! I'm guessing that's around 9-10" of snow?

I’m guessing a little more bc of ratios with the temps that cold. I believe last I looked they were running in the low to mid 20s. Face value it’d be a solid storm and I would take it in a heartbeat if it’s gonna be squish city.

[BornAgain13]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I’m guessing a little more bc of ratios with the temps that cold. I believe last I looked they were running in the low to mid 20s. Face value it’d be a solid storm and I would take it in a heartbeat if it’s gonna be squish city.

Yeah, other than the Ensembles, the Euro and the Control run both are to fall south for my area... kinda weird to say that,  but those show squash city. Which is good for a lot of the forum. Just not myself.

[griteater]

2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro control run is a suppressed crush job from atanta to columbia to myrtle beach.  I'm loving this supression trend. Lets keep this puppy south as long as we can!

So the overall trends on the ensembles have been for a stronger sfc high, with more damming, with the low positioned farther south, and with it tracking east to west in tandem with the high.  Hard to complain with the overall trends for many.

[BornAgain13]

Should be interesting to see what DT says about how the Euro model abandoned him... lol

[griteater]

Alternate view of the strengthening trend of the damming high at today's hr144 on the EPS Mean...this is significant.  The cold damming high to the north is the more difficult feature for us to achieve compared to getting the moisture out of the gulf in this setup IMO.

[wxdawg10]

I've seen this story play out so many times..model hug at your own peril.  Southeast climo is a beast and more often than not, it wins out.  it's nice to have a storm to track but models are poor getting a handle on these storms 3+ days out.  I do believe somebody is gonna get crushed but who?  it's toss up at this point.  

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

What are the totals for SE NC on the control run?

[timnc910]

3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

What are the totals for SE NC on the control run?

From what i can tell it was 1 to 3 inches give or take. Lesser amounts closer to the coast.

[SnowGoose69]

The high is too far north for those sorts of totals into GA and SC.  That would at best be mostly sleet there.  Think January 88.  It was a flatter setup than this was or at least a weaker low, later in the season and still most of NRN AL and GA saw sleet.  This probably is north of the 12Z Euro in the end but even if that verifies dead on those places south of the TN-Spartanburg line are likely sleet.  Atlanta might even be rain

[burrel2]

13 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

What are the totals for SE NC on the control run?

Jackpot for SENC is around a foot between Lumberton and Wilmington.  Less as you go north from that line.  (Not sure on algothrims for the snow map, and how much of this is sleet/freezing rain)

[BornAgain13]

Just a guess. But I'm thinking the 18z GFS will come in further south as well.... it just seems like that High Pressure will block it from coming to far north. 

[Lookout]

31 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I would say in the history of Euro ensemble runs... I've never seen a set that has looked that good in my life at 6/7 days out. It's beautiful!

Yeah, it's pretty crazy.   Indeed, considering how far off this is, there is some remarkably good agreement among all the modeling.  Considering that, Although the usual precautions should always apply given how far off it is, it's hard not to be optimistic of something significant..whether it's snow or ice.  Still though, it's not unusual for a generally agreed upon modeled  major storm turn to nothing even with good agreement at this range...but we are in a better than usual spot i would think. 

[burrel2]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The high is too far north for those sorts of totals into GA and SC.  That would at best be mostly sleet there.  Think January 88.  It was a flatter setup than this was or at least a weaker low, later in the season and still most of NRN AL and GA saw sleet.  This probably is north of the 12Z Euro in the end but even if that verifies dead on those places south of the TN-Spartanburg line are likely sleet.  Atlanta might even be rain

I'm not that excited at all about the snow prospects in the Upstate, or even in Central NC for that matter. Mid level cold air looks too marginal.  I think large areas of sleet/freezing rain is a good bet for this storm. I'm not picky though.

[kvegas-wx]

We had a slider across NGA last year and I think we had sunny weather that day here in GSO, so it isnt unprecendented.  I just think its unlikely to see such a strong HP this early in the season to net that kind of supression.  I'll keep my money on climo and go with a solid NC and upstate event for now.  Significant snow in Dec into NGA is beyond rare.