Jonathan Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Of course the Norwegian would give all snow. What else would it give? Damned Vikings! As Jeremy mentioned folks, we've lost several storms in the 5-7 day range that never came back. Even me in SW VA. We have a LONG way to go in a fairly hostile pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I see that the local NWS stations are putting snow in the forecasts now: Friday Night Friday night ... A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Saturday: ... Rain and snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The pattern isn't that hostile. We get a transient +PNA, neutralish NAO and negative AO, with a decent cold shot coming down, with reinforcements. It's not the absolute ideal pattern, but I've seen worse patterns produce wintry weather here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: The pattern isn't that hostile. We get a transient +PNA, neutralish NAO and negative AO, with a decent cold shot coming down, with reinforcements. It's not the absolute ideal pattern, but I've seen worse patterns produce wintry weather here. When you get a deep moisture feed, with a high pressing down it's a phenomenal pattern, regardless of what the indices are. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 @Jonathan I gotta agree with @WidreMann on that one it really isn’t that hostil meteorologically speaking. You have a low that traverses across the country in the southern stream with confluence up top basically dictating how far north and south this thing goes. The models have moved away from the miller b scenario and are honing in on a miller a scenario in its place. The trend over the next few days is to see if the confluence is modeled too weak or too strong. I am beginning to get that sense as others have alluded to that regardless a good majority are going to get a healthy front end thump, which I’m more than ok with, as that is when we have our best storms. Comes in like a darn wall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I guarantee you this time tomorrow we'll be seeing the models drop the storm almost entirely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 12z Euro looks similar at 500 to 12 GFS, with a nod towards its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: I guarantee you this time tomorrow we'll be seeing the models drop the storm almost entirely. With this much agreement between most of the models? Seems unlikely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: @Jonathan I gotta agree with @WidreMann on that one it really isn’t that hostil meteorologically speaking. You have a low that traverses across the country in the southern stream with confluence up top basically dictating how far north and south this thing goes. The models have moved away from the miller b scenario and are honing in on a miller a scenario in its place. The trend over the next few days is to see if the confluence is modeled too weak or too strong. I am beginning to get that sense as others have alluded to that regardless a good majority are going to get a healthy front end thump, which I’m more than ok with, as that is when we have our best storms. Comes in like a darn wall. I wouldn't be concerned either if I were in Salem! I worded that wrong. I guess what I was trying to say was instead of a hostile WEATHER PATTERN, it's a hostile timeframe on the models. It's almost time for them to drop it completely, cause mass panic and pick it back up in 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Will (little rock) said: With this much agreement between most of the models? Seems unlikely It's happened before. Of course, they bring it back 4 days ahead of the event. I blame the data-sparse Pacific. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 FV3 took freezing rain down to Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 FWIW 12z GEFS has a mean snowfall at Chapel Hill of 4". For those of us in the western areas of the triangle, I still like this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jonathan said: I wouldn't be concerned either if I were in Salem! I worded that wrong. I guess what I was trying to say was instead of a hostile WEATHER PATTERN, it's a hostile timeframe on the models. It's almost time for them to drop it completely, cause mass panic and pick it back up in 24 hours. I think you’re gonna be just fine as well man, especially with that HP anchored right to our north. Gonna have good antecedent conditions for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 FV3 and Euro are not that far off from one another with LP placement at 144. Euro just a tick faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: FWIW 12z GEFS has a mean snowfall at Chapel Hill of 4". For those of us in the western areas of the triangle, I still like this event. A big improvement from 6z for most everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: FV3 and Euro are not that far off from one another with LP placement at 144. FV3 just a tick faster. The positioning of the High suggests it will be further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 FV3 on pivotal gives me .75" of snow and .4" ZR on the Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 12z Euro is a lot colder than yesterday (at 850) and colder than the GFS. Makes sense since the trend is to have a stronger cold shot coming in late week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The 12z FV3 was a very cold run. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfct&rh=2018120212&fh=162&r=us_ma&dpdt= http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfct&rh=2018120212&fh=162&r=us_ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: 12z Euro is a lot colder than yesterday (at 850) and colder than the GFS. Makes sense since the trend is to have a stronger cold shot coming in late week. Euro def has some serious cold building in at 144 from the NE, with a 1039 HP over Iowa. This storm has been intriguing to track at the minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Damn the Euro at 168 is a beauty for central NC. Miller A suppressed with a nice cold high. Cold enough for snow across most of the state. Can we bank this please? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, jjwxman said: The 12z FV3 was a very cold run. Someone gets a tree snapping storm somewhere between Cola and Raleigh on that run. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 the 12z EURO is taking the low off the GA coast with plenty of cold air above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: Damn the Euro at 168 is a beauty for central NC. Miller A suppressed with a nice cold high. Cold enough for snow across most of the state. Can we bank this please? SOLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 @168 Low is east of CHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I read somewhere that the FV3 has a cold bias. Not sure if that's relevant to CAD events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 When making statements about certain models, please try to post the link or image you are referring to. That is, if you can post the image legally. This will help folks be able save or bookmark links for models.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: I read somewhere that the FV3 has a cold bias. Not sure if that's relevant to CAD events like this. Global models underestimate the CAD, so it may be more of a realistic outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Euro also shows some light snow across southern VA with the clipper. We'll need to watch that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: When making statements about certain models, please try to post the link or image you are referring to. That is, if you can post the image legally. This will help folks be able save or bookmark links for models. . I’m on my phone when I view these things thus why I can’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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